Warning: Action-packed episode ahead. Jeffry Turnmire tells us that we never really know we’re in a recession… until we’re almost out of it. The stats he gives are just mind blowing. Roger warns us that the markets are always forward looking… and Fed data is always 3-6 months old, so be careful what you read into it. Tom Busby explains the business cycle and what part of it he sees we’re in right now. Geof Smith talks commodities and explains why the gas tax holiday might be the worst idea ever.
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►Click To View This Episode's Transcript◄1 00:00:00.299 --> 00:00:01.020 o'clock a money. 2 00:00:02.250 --> 00:00:09.330 Celeste Lindman: glad to be with everyone here today and, yes, the session is being recorded so we'll get that link posted there in the chat so you can go back and. 3 00:00:09.570 --> 00:00:18.660 Celeste Lindman: Listen to this program or any of the great programs that you want to hear because boy they're really super fabulous it's hard to capture everything right there at friend hey Tom how are you doing. 4 00:00:18.930 --> 00:00:20.130 Tom Busby: i'm good how about you. 5 00:00:20.250 --> 00:00:22.170 Celeste Lindman: doing well doing well, good to see all. 6 00:00:22.200 --> 00:00:23.370 Roger Scott: hey rob Lowe everyone. 7 00:00:23.430 --> 00:00:26.280 Roger Scott: hey guys hey Tom hey Celeste hey Jeffrey. 8 00:00:26.520 --> 00:00:27.240 Roger Scott: Jeffrey how are you. 9 00:00:29.280 --> 00:00:31.770 Roger Scott: Good to see everyone lots to talk about today. 10 00:00:31.800 --> 00:00:35.640 Celeste Lindman: My goodness absolutely a lot going on, Tom did you have a good week. 11 00:00:36.210 --> 00:00:36.900 Tom Busby: right way. 12 00:00:37.350 --> 00:00:45.630 Celeste Lindman: Okay, good good all right well we're looking forward to being with everyone today and a lot to cover so we're going to get started right away, you know, we had a fantastic call this morning. 13 00:00:45.900 --> 00:00:56.280 Celeste Lindman: With these professional traders in fact I can't wait to hear from Jeff return Meyer, who started calling jt about what he's saying about the recession it's gonna be really cool. 14 00:00:58.290 --> 00:01:05.340 Jeffry Turnmire: yeah um well you know, I think that there's some indicators out there, that may we we've been in this for. 15 00:01:06.360 --> 00:01:19.860 Jeffry Turnmire: upwards of seven months and i'm going to go through it when when I get a little more time and, but one thing you know that's been counter to the recession has been all these commodities they've just been taken off and i'm really interested to hear what. 16 00:01:20.970 --> 00:01:29.640 Jeffry Turnmire: Jeff Smith got to say about you know that, and the possibility that those may come back in line with the broader market yeah well said. 17 00:01:31.980 --> 00:01:32.850 Celeste Lindman: You think Jeff Smith. 18 00:01:33.270 --> 00:01:40.620 Geof Smith: Well, I mean the other I think what you've seen this little pullback that we've seen the commodities here, I think, are more on the. 19 00:01:41.700 --> 00:01:43.590 Geof Smith: inflationary front of things. 20 00:01:44.610 --> 00:01:51.360 Geof Smith: I mean the commodities have had a huge rally this year, I mean if you look at new you know, Google gasoline heating all that stuff. 21 00:01:52.110 --> 00:02:05.850 Geof Smith: Even in the grain markets we've had a big rally but people are going to take profit out of something that they've got money in to offset all the losses that they have on the equity side of things, so I think who's seen that little correction kind of pull back in here. 22 00:02:06.870 --> 00:02:19.530 Geof Smith: But I still think that we're probably going to be having soon the green start moving back up, even though the cricket back a little bit, and one thing i'm actually looking forward to with Roger I want to hear about this algos thing he's got going on. 23 00:02:22.500 --> 00:02:24.240 Celeste Lindman: what's going on there, what do you say Roger. 24 00:02:24.360 --> 00:02:37.050 Roger Scott: Well, I and i'll definitely share some of the algos stuff we actually just closed out our fifth trade fifth, this is our fifth issue trade in our pattern trader and we just close it out for profits we're going five for five right now. 25 00:02:37.500 --> 00:02:38.370 Roger Scott: i'm gonna see if I could. 26 00:02:38.550 --> 00:02:51.060 Roger Scott: want to see if I can go 10 for 10 but i'll get into that later i'm actually looking right now, at the yield curve i'm looking right now at how the long bond is reacting and i'm looking at how a lot of these assets are reacting. 27 00:02:51.690 --> 00:03:00.180 Roger Scott: To the market, and I believe I don't believe we're going to go into a deep recession we may just kind of go into a very mild one. 28 00:03:00.450 --> 00:03:04.920 Roger Scott: But it's kind of like what Jeff Jeffrey said and here's something a lot of people need to understand. 29 00:03:05.220 --> 00:03:09.750 Roger Scott: Markets are always forward looking at the data we're getting from the Fed is always back looking. 30 00:03:10.080 --> 00:03:19.950 Roger Scott: So the data that we're seeing from the Fed is about three to six months old and the markets pricing in three to six months ahead of time, so it's kind of creating this shift but. 31 00:03:20.310 --> 00:03:26.430 Roger Scott: That and i'll get i'll get into more of this in my analysis looking forward to seeing what the rest of you guys have to say. 32 00:03:26.760 --> 00:03:39.300 Roger Scott: always glad to be here because it's always good to have a perspective trading is a very isolated business, and when you can get feedback from T buzz and Jeffrey and Jeff it's always always i'm in good company let's just say that yeah. 33 00:03:39.360 --> 00:03:46.800 Celeste Lindman: yeah I agree with you on that that's and can't wait to hear from T buzz more about what's going on in the markets, as well as always has great insight on that. 34 00:03:47.100 --> 00:03:54.780 Celeste Lindman: And you know that's why we're all here, you know Tom busby is the one that actually started here this with ask the pros and we're so grateful and he started. 35 00:03:55.080 --> 00:04:03.480 Celeste Lindman: DTI back in 1996 we've actually been trading for like over 40 years, so it is a lot of experience he's seen a lot of different types of markets and. 36 00:04:03.900 --> 00:04:12.660 Celeste Lindman: Tom you were like you were the first one saying hey 4500 4500 way way way way back so when i'm talking about getting the headlines way before the headlines. 37 00:04:13.140 --> 00:04:17.190 Celeste Lindman: boy we sure to get him right here and ask the pro so thanks for pointing that out what over a year ago. 38 00:04:17.610 --> 00:04:25.230 Celeste Lindman: But anyway, Tom he has been an air force officer and he's been he's a member of the CME Chicago Mercantile Exchange. 39 00:04:25.560 --> 00:04:31.500 Celeste Lindman: And again started this company back in 1996 to really transfer this type of knowledge to all of you. 40 00:04:31.800 --> 00:04:37.800 Celeste Lindman: And I am a benefactor of that been with him, for you know well, since the last crash financial crisis. 41 00:04:38.130 --> 00:04:45.750 Celeste Lindman: And really changed the way that I look at the market so very grateful for that and the roadmap software that he and Jeff Smith use and have you know shared with us. 42 00:04:45.990 --> 00:04:51.840 Celeste Lindman: Just kind of a real vision to what's going on in the market, I do not trade without it so we're glad at Tom is back with us. 43 00:04:52.230 --> 00:05:00.000 Celeste Lindman: And then we also have Roger stuff back in the House and uncle Roger Dr Scott, I call him that, because he's just a wealth of knowledge. 44 00:05:00.300 --> 00:05:06.990 Celeste Lindman: And yeah I can't wait to hear about these algos and all the things that he's been doing behind the scenes to because you know he's got a lot of great background. 45 00:05:07.320 --> 00:05:11.850 Celeste Lindman: Information he's worked with some really top top people, you can see it there on the screen. 46 00:05:12.090 --> 00:05:20.760 Celeste Lindman: You know whether they're you know worked at the White House or the Ivy league professors, you name it, you know traded for the wealthiest families on earth. 47 00:05:21.090 --> 00:05:27.690 Celeste Lindman: and has just all this experience that he shares and he's done it with over a half a million people in fact even Tony saliba. 48 00:05:27.870 --> 00:05:36.330 Celeste Lindman: takes his trades and we'll hear more about that as well, too, but glad to have Jeff return Meyer jt back with us he started in the third grade I think he won. 49 00:05:36.630 --> 00:05:46.950 Celeste Lindman: That Award for starting the earliest and opened his first account brokerage account when he was 18 he started this ECO trade system that's been super powerful for him. 50 00:05:47.190 --> 00:05:54.810 Celeste Lindman: it's going to talk more about how he looks at the market and how he was able to even correctly call the top and the bottom of multiple markets over the years. 51 00:05:55.080 --> 00:06:01.770 Celeste Lindman: he's been with us, you know every so often here on ask the pros and he shows us those levels he's going to show you some of those today, along with. 52 00:06:02.160 --> 00:06:06.360 Celeste Lindman: A great case for where we are in the recession, I think it's powerful I think you're going to love it. 53 00:06:06.780 --> 00:06:17.280 Celeste Lindman: And of course we're glad to have Jeff Smith back with us and I like to tease Jeff a lot but, really, the truth is that he's the reason that I have success in the market because he transfer the knowledge to me. 54 00:06:17.550 --> 00:06:26.010 Celeste Lindman: That he uses in the market, so a lot about that he started when he was 18 so sorry jt has got to be Jeff Smith and. 55 00:06:26.280 --> 00:06:27.600 Celeste Lindman: He is also. 56 00:06:28.080 --> 00:06:38.400 Celeste Lindman: He has been involved in award winning education and that's what's so super powerful and you can go to it it's on demand, you know what you want to do it at two o'clock in the morning, you can do it. 57 00:06:38.970 --> 00:06:45.420 Celeste Lindman: it's very flexible education that really transfers, a lot of knowledge, including the futures and stocks commodities everything so. 58 00:06:45.720 --> 00:06:51.270 Celeste Lindman: we're glad to have Jeff back with us, but Roger why don't you kick it off for us tell us more about this Alto thing the trades. 59 00:06:51.540 --> 00:06:59.610 Celeste Lindman: That you're placing in and also these kind of seasonal patterns that you're seeing here, you know we're getting up on this fourth of July, what can you tell us about what's going on in the market. 60 00:06:59.640 --> 00:07:16.920 Roger Scott: Well, actually, let me, let me just share my screen with you and I want to go one, second, let me just get this get this here we go got this here, so a few things in terms of let me uh where's this thing i'm going to just quickly share my screen. 61 00:07:19.680 --> 00:07:29.370 Roger Scott: Alright, we are allowed looking at bar charts now right now, right now, as far as the sectors we had today new home sales the number was not too bad. 62 00:07:30.150 --> 00:07:40.860 Roger Scott: We were expecting a pretty crappy consumer sentiment, based on the Michigan survey from two weeks ago and the number was actually not too bad either was actually near the upper upper end of the range. 63 00:07:41.220 --> 00:07:53.370 Roger Scott: So fundamentally and and on the sentiment level, things are not nearly as bad again, one of the biggest factors that i'm that i'm looking at right now is this is the fact that the bond market the long bond. 64 00:07:54.210 --> 00:08:03.390 Roger Scott: The angle, if you notice here, we started going down here in December, the stock market started going out down, just a few weeks later it's not a coincidence. 65 00:08:03.780 --> 00:08:14.490 Roger Scott: If you look at the bond market, the more the bond market goes down the more pressure puts on stocks when the Fed came out with a CPI of 8.6, this is what happened to the bond market. 66 00:08:15.060 --> 00:08:22.920 Roger Scott: But here's what the Fed didn't tell you and here's what the Fed uses they don't use the regular CPI they use the core CPI. 67 00:08:23.460 --> 00:08:29.100 Roger Scott: They use the CPI that doesn't take into inflation into account, not inflation take into account. 68 00:08:29.490 --> 00:08:38.550 Roger Scott: food and energy prices without food or energy, we did not go higher on the CPI we actually match the previous it interestingly enough. 69 00:08:38.970 --> 00:08:47.580 Roger Scott: Japan came out with their CPI last week and same thing happened with Japan, their CPI minus food and energy did not go higher. 70 00:08:48.000 --> 00:08:54.840 Roger Scott: And again, as I mentioned a few minutes ago, when I started this there's like good three to six month lag between what the Fed sees on the table. 71 00:08:55.170 --> 00:09:01.320 Roger Scott: And what's already in the market, so we won't really know for three to four months from now, if we even fact have bottomed out. 72 00:09:01.650 --> 00:09:09.240 Roger Scott: But if you look at the bond market it's not interpreting I mean you know before Powell got elected, we were in inflation was transitory. 73 00:09:09.630 --> 00:09:15.030 Roger Scott: After he got reelected we could be in for a recession right he's not a politician, of course. 74 00:09:15.750 --> 00:09:24.750 Roger Scott: i'm being sarcastic but but with that said with that said notice we're back in this level and choppier we stayed, the more we can go sideways. 75 00:09:25.080 --> 00:09:37.890 Roger Scott: The more strength with the stock market will have or the less push down, it will have from the economy now we're just going back a little quickly to what Jeff and with Jeff mentioned earlier. 76 00:09:39.360 --> 00:09:45.360 Roger Scott: I don't believe I do not believe, based on the data that we're seeing right now that this is it for the energy market. 77 00:09:46.230 --> 00:10:03.240 Roger Scott: or for the commodity market a if we are going to be in a recession we're not we're not there yet and there's still probably a 5050 chance if we're going to get there number two number two so there's I don't see a major slow down, I am seeing a huge huge. 78 00:10:04.740 --> 00:10:10.590 Roger Scott: Supply and demand imbalance right now of energy matter of fact, that of all the 11 sectors energies is the most. 79 00:10:11.550 --> 00:10:27.960 Roger Scott: Over over oversold sector and not and should be moving higher not lower same thing with commodity prices, so in my opinion, what you're seeing is just a mere pullback and i'm doing everything I can to take advantage of it now want to show you guys something interesting and I. 80 00:10:29.070 --> 00:10:38.460 Roger Scott: Doing to seasonal studies for you one started yesterday once one is going to start in a few days, so let me show you this. 81 00:10:39.000 --> 00:10:56.460 Roger Scott: This is the back test results of the study going back to 19 you remember that matt was 9390 1996 yes 1990 so this goes, so this goes back 32 years, and this is the equity curve of these rules. 82 00:10:57.120 --> 00:11:07.110 Roger Scott: And we're in this trade right now and we're up 27% on the option as of last night but Mike Mike my my point here is it's not too late this trade. 83 00:11:07.530 --> 00:11:17.220 Roger Scott: is supposed to last till the first day of July, so we may just be getting started here and the rules are very simple, and the reason this happens is very simple as well. 84 00:11:17.760 --> 00:11:31.470 Roger Scott: A lot of you don't know this, this is why i'm here to tell you this, that the Russell 2000 has a annual rebalancing it happens to I don't know why die I don't really care, but it happens, the last week of June, and if you were to. 85 00:11:32.610 --> 00:11:45.150 Roger Scott: hypothetically if you were to buy the Russell on the end of the day, on the 23rd and sell on the clothes, the first day of July, this is the equity curve of that the Prophet factors like 4.3. 86 00:11:46.260 --> 00:11:57.450 Roger Scott: These are the rules so it's not really curve fitted or anything like that, and again it happens because because not have any other reason is that Russell throws out the weak stocks. 87 00:11:57.810 --> 00:12:05.550 Roger Scott: and puts in the strong stocks it's a rebalancing it's a cleansing so just so after a cleansing, the Russell tends to rally it's not a miracle. 88 00:12:05.850 --> 00:12:12.840 Roger Scott: Now you probably asking will Roger how accurate is this well in the last 32 years it happened 75% of the time. 89 00:12:13.440 --> 00:12:22.170 Roger Scott: So it may continue working, it may not work, I don't know and I don't know but right now we're up 27.3% on the options. 90 00:12:22.680 --> 00:12:36.900 Roger Scott: And so, but so that's that's making me inclined to believe that there's a very strong chance that the market is going to rally between now and the end of this month, because there is a very strong correlation between the Russell and the other indices. 91 00:12:39.120 --> 00:12:55.140 Roger Scott: But most of you are probably asking me right now Roger What about the fourth of July holiday well I got you guys covered there too, so this is the fourth of July back test, and this is the s&p 500 we buy on the clothes on the 29th of June. 92 00:12:56.220 --> 00:13:01.980 Roger Scott: And we sell Six days later, not trading days just six days later, we want to income pass the. 93 00:13:02.430 --> 00:13:11.190 Roger Scott: The fourth of July holiday in there, so does the stock market rise during the fourth of July holiday that's the the answer we're trying to that's the question we're answering. 94 00:13:11.820 --> 00:13:23.730 Roger Scott: That When did we start this test and 93 this started in 93, so this is a, this is not this is 29 years or 30 day it's there they're all like 30 years old, these tests. 95 00:13:24.180 --> 00:13:32.340 Roger Scott: And this was done last week, and this was done last week we're actually notice done this week beginning of this week, so this is is accurate and as timely as you're going to get. 96 00:13:32.700 --> 00:13:37.470 Roger Scott: The accuracy here is not 75% the accuracy here is only 68%. 97 00:13:38.130 --> 00:13:46.620 Roger Scott: But it's a 68% chance and here's the equity curve, I have no idea if it's going to work this here I don't know I don't know anything beyond what i'm telling you. 98 00:13:47.100 --> 00:13:58.560 Roger Scott: were playing by the numbers 75% and 68% and the rules are right here, and remember it's still not too late you're not supposed to get out of this trade till the first day of July. 99 00:13:59.160 --> 00:14:06.810 Roger Scott: So it we just started this last night and we're already up 26.9% i'm just watching it in real time. 100 00:14:07.260 --> 00:14:21.120 Roger Scott: So, again here's the first trade for you guys 75% accuracy and here's the second trade for you guys with a 75% accuracy, so what i'm going to do is in the chat i'm going to post these rules for you. 101 00:14:24.120 --> 00:14:25.560 Roger Scott: This is for the s&p. 102 00:14:27.750 --> 00:14:29.670 Roger Scott: And let me now do the Russell. 103 00:14:32.970 --> 00:14:41.400 Roger Scott: And if you guys are finding this kind of information at other places, other than ask the pros i'd like for you to tell me I who am. 104 00:14:42.300 --> 00:15:01.440 Roger Scott: I who Russell 2000 so again just wanted to show you that so that's, the first thing I wanted to talk about the second thing I want to talk about is actually really interesting and i'm surprised that other people are not talking about this so last last Friday last Friday. 105 00:15:03.840 --> 00:15:12.960 Roger Scott: The Chinese Ministry of Industry and information technology, oh yeah it's like that MIT for short, he held he held a symposium. 106 00:15:13.680 --> 00:15:21.510 Roger Scott: And he issued policy recommendations to boost manufacturing growth in China makes sense right pretty timely right now. 107 00:15:22.350 --> 00:15:32.010 Roger Scott: No specific policies were announced but i'm quoting him he's going to use quote unquote extra ordinary measures to improve production output. 108 00:15:32.520 --> 00:15:39.330 Roger Scott: That china's the world's manufacturing superpower 30% of all products and goods are made in China now. 109 00:15:40.290 --> 00:15:49.860 Roger Scott: The new policy can sharply reverse the trend in Chinese manufacturing and, by extension, sharply reverse the trend ev stocks electric vehicle stocks. 110 00:15:50.400 --> 00:16:02.070 Roger Scott: Now, electric vehicle stocks have soared lately, I want to show you guys something while we talk about this look at electric vehicle prices for battery costs you seeing this look at that from. 111 00:16:03.090 --> 00:16:09.900 Roger Scott: To now, this is going to continue going lower and lower and lower and lower it's not going higher number two. 112 00:16:12.060 --> 00:16:12.630 Roger Scott: This. 113 00:16:14.130 --> 00:16:26.070 Roger Scott: So let's take a look at this wall, I read this now China control 60% of the world's battery manufacturing capacity, that means global ev production and sales are relying completely on China. 114 00:16:27.480 --> 00:16:38.100 Roger Scott: By 2030 we're expecting 40% of the market to be ev and by 2040 complete and I know that because Ford and GM have already issued statements. 115 00:16:38.430 --> 00:16:45.720 Roger Scott: That they're not going to be making regular cars after I don't remember what year was but it's like somewhere between 2013 and 2014 wasn't that long ago. 116 00:16:46.380 --> 00:16:55.290 Roger Scott: So I thought this was kind of interesting, but nobody really picked up on that, and then on Monday, the next the next day this last Monday. 117 00:16:56.070 --> 00:17:04.950 Roger Scott: President Biden made an announcement Biden said he's revealing that he will suspend tariffs on solar panels from Southeast Asia. 118 00:17:05.820 --> 00:17:15.600 Roger Scott: Now, how did this How did this all happen Obama Obama strikes again at my Obama Administration slap tariffs on China solar panels. 119 00:17:16.380 --> 00:17:25.710 Roger Scott: Because he wanted to make he wanted, you know, solar energy, to be a US thing it's a little too late, too little, too late, the sun is out of the you know can't let it's kind of late for that now. 120 00:17:26.250 --> 00:17:35.190 Roger Scott: So Biden wants to do anything possible to stimulate the economy, so he says screw these tariffs i'm going to lead lead the Chinese do whatever they want for the next two years. 121 00:17:35.610 --> 00:17:42.660 Roger Scott: Now I don't care if they have to go to Taiwan Vietnam to make these things, which is what they've been doing a rest of all the other things, after covert. 122 00:17:43.080 --> 00:17:57.420 Roger Scott: But he doesn't care he just wants to erase these and he wants these things to to start moving as a result of that, as a result of that these are the top three stocks and i'm giving you in the order of my preference. 123 00:17:58.440 --> 00:17:58.890 Roger Scott: So. 124 00:17:59.910 --> 00:18:01.710 Roger Scott: Let me show you which ones I like. 125 00:18:05.820 --> 00:18:13.260 Roger Scott: So the first stock already noticed has been going up to the last four days and here's when we recommended it to our VIP room readers whenever we have this green line. 126 00:18:13.650 --> 00:18:24.330 Roger Scott: But we expect this stock to go to $225 over the next 12 weeks if things continue the way they are that's the first one, the second one is se DG. 127 00:18:26.160 --> 00:18:34.680 Roger Scott: it's lower in my Pole and it's weaker it's at the 200 the other ones above the 200 I think this one will go up to about 332 right around here. 128 00:18:35.190 --> 00:18:44.490 Roger Scott: And the last one is F slr and I know it's cheaper and I know a lot of you guys would rather buy this one, but look at where it is now compared to the 200 day line. 129 00:18:44.910 --> 00:18:57.150 Roger Scott: You always want to in the target on this one is 85 around here, but you always want to if you can i'd rather you buy a spread on this one, because look it's already above it's almost at. 130 00:18:57.780 --> 00:19:04.530 Roger Scott: Old old levels, and this is the number one company that everyone, I see bring all the funds everybody's recommending this one. 131 00:19:04.860 --> 00:19:09.780 Roger Scott: So if you're going to pick one I recommend you do this one it's all i'm going to say they're. 132 00:19:10.200 --> 00:19:19.350 Roger Scott: Finally, finally, finally Oh, and then today seeking alpha had a huge article on solar stocks and how crazy they may be, but again that's from Friday and Monday and. 133 00:19:19.980 --> 00:19:28.530 Roger Scott: By the way, solar is a great at a hedge for energy traditional energy stocks, they do have very good negative correlation, for obvious reasons. 134 00:19:28.830 --> 00:19:35.520 Roger Scott: You know tech goes up solar goes up regular blue chips good so so it may not be a bad idea to add this to your portfolio. 135 00:19:36.060 --> 00:19:42.150 Roger Scott: As a hedge just just something to think about right now, lastly, before I let let you guys out of here. 136 00:19:42.630 --> 00:19:53.430 Roger Scott: I got a couple of tech stocks that I just can't I I honestly think that the tech sector, the small CAP sector, I think they've been beaten enough matter of fact, I want you guys to know something. 137 00:19:54.000 --> 00:20:06.000 Roger Scott: And I think I might have mentioned this on last week, there is a five point spread between the Russell and the s&p so right now the Russell PE ratio. 138 00:20:06.690 --> 00:20:15.060 Roger Scott: Is it 14 the S amp P E ratio right now is at 18 the russell's P ratio should be. 139 00:20:15.540 --> 00:20:23.370 Roger Scott: A closer to 219 or 20 right now so it's really undervalued compared to the p E ratio here and it makes sense because the stocks are more speculative. 140 00:20:23.700 --> 00:20:34.110 Roger Scott: they're the first to go down, and then the first to rise, so you want to be looking at the Russell 2000 right now and, as I mentioned to you earlier, Carlos said. 141 00:20:35.340 --> 00:20:41.340 Roger Scott: Carlos made 125% on that on that seasonal Russell trade that we took so There you have it. 142 00:20:41.700 --> 00:20:50.670 Roger Scott: So, last but not least, I got one more story for you guys tech stocks, I think, large CAP tech stocks, some of them are totally totally overdone to the downside. 143 00:20:51.000 --> 00:21:01.650 Roger Scott: Some of my favorite ones that i'm really liking right now is qualcomm look at the pete I mean Have you ever did you ever say hey guys you ever think you would CP ratio on qualcomm and under 12 I mean. 144 00:21:02.550 --> 00:21:10.920 Roger Scott: I don't know how it's possible, and I mean the company revenue earnings dividend the company's doing solid earnings per share growth is looking solid dividend yield is looking solid. 145 00:21:11.550 --> 00:21:20.910 Roger Scott: i'm, this is a by these levels, I really think it's a by these levels, even if the market goes down a little bit I honestly think you're getting a deal at these prices. 146 00:21:21.600 --> 00:21:28.410 Roger Scott: These are, this is a classic tech stock, I mean a real blue chip ish kind of a tech stock, this is not a speculative stock. 147 00:21:28.860 --> 00:21:36.570 Roger Scott: Remember, this company REP revitalized San Diego and entire town of San Diego about 30 years ago. 148 00:21:37.230 --> 00:21:46.170 Roger Scott: says, this is it was like a second coming of Silicon Valley for San Diego and last is Avi GEO one of the best chip stocks. 149 00:21:46.470 --> 00:21:53.250 Roger Scott: they're doing a lot of what amd is doing right now i'm looking for a lot more upside the p E ratio is 14. 150 00:21:53.610 --> 00:22:14.040 Roger Scott: If you look at sm H, which is this chip semiconductor index the p E ratio on that is 24 so that's what the p ratio on on chip stocks is right now Avi GEO is less than 15 let's go there again sorry i'm jumping back and forth, but I want to give you guys as much as I can here. 151 00:22:15.330 --> 00:22:21.150 Roger Scott: Here it is 16 for really, really low love the stock look at these numbers. 152 00:22:22.050 --> 00:22:29.550 Roger Scott: Everything is over 100 if anything here's over 100 that means funds are excited 100 hundred 54 640 and and again. 153 00:22:29.970 --> 00:22:45.000 Roger Scott: it's it's just a great great great by and again, this is not some small speculative company, this is a big big CAP stock so both stocks are undervalued, I think this stock aveo is going to. 154 00:22:46.200 --> 00:22:57.060 Roger Scott: hit 560 and 12 weeks that's my target that roughly right around here the basically undo everything that it didn't last three weeks and for and for. 155 00:22:58.560 --> 00:22:59.520 Roger Scott: For qualcomm. 156 00:23:00.990 --> 00:23:15.690 Roger Scott: My target there is $146 so basically I think D stocks are going to undo what happened to them into last shakeout that we've had sorry guys I didn't mean to dominate your time that's all i've got for today hope all this helps. 157 00:23:15.930 --> 00:23:17.340 Geof Smith: I have a question for your under. 158 00:23:17.490 --> 00:23:18.270 Roger Scott: Oh yes please. 159 00:23:18.330 --> 00:23:34.230 Geof Smith: Please so looking at the p E ratio of the s&p and the Russell you said there was like a four or five point difference you're also mentioning earlier that they're going to rebalance the Russell here in about a week week and a half, so is that going to move those two closer together. 160 00:23:35.250 --> 00:23:45.390 Roger Scott: It may, it may actually the Russell rebalancing starts today and ends yeah that starts today and ends the last day of this month, so. 161 00:23:46.020 --> 00:23:56.100 Roger Scott: it's actually happening right now and, yes, that will be changed, that will be that will be changed, but you got to remember there's there's almost 2000 stocks in. 162 00:23:56.100 --> 00:24:00.600 Roger Scott: there and they may change only like 1525 they don't really go crazy. 163 00:24:01.800 --> 00:24:09.240 Roger Scott: But but it's enough to spurt to start spring, as you could see here, based on the back test it's enough to do something. 164 00:24:09.480 --> 00:24:24.810 Roger Scott: yeah and whatever it is i'm good with and and i'm gonna if you guys are liking these type of like seasonal back tests i'll keep bringing them because they happen during almost every holiday and major events so i'll do them ahead of time, so you guys can see and benefit from them here. 165 00:24:25.800 --> 00:24:32.130 Jeffry Turnmire: That that uh that rebalancing actually takes effect after the market closed today it's often muscle website right there. 166 00:24:32.340 --> 00:24:46.770 Roger Scott: Thank you, there you go yeah the reason we wanted to put the trade and yesterday was because we wanted to cover the you know the entire before and after to make it to make it income, just like we did with the fourth of July we put the trade in. 167 00:24:48.360 --> 00:25:02.070 Roger Scott: Just so that it covers that period, but thank you Jeffrey I appreciate that link I I did not see that all read that too, but good good good good yeah I know keep us love seasonal analysis so so glad glad to be able to help. 168 00:25:02.490 --> 00:25:06.780 Celeste Lindman: yeah really good great great analysis, people are typing that in as well and. 169 00:25:07.080 --> 00:25:16.470 Celeste Lindman: Interesting to you know what you're saying about tagging about small caps and and even China, you know it's like China i've noticed, you know, last couple weeks is that actually making that kind of higher swing low. 170 00:25:17.010 --> 00:25:25.500 Celeste Lindman: Before the rest of us so interesting would be you know good to see for the small caps to get China back in in play again so one of your more because. 171 00:25:25.800 --> 00:25:36.270 Celeste Lindman: This fits right into what jt Jeffrey turn mark is going to talk to us about what this recession and his case it's phenomenal get your notebook out you're going to want to hear everything he has to say and it's. 172 00:25:36.690 --> 00:25:42.600 Celeste Lindman: going to kind of tied into you know the s&p and the crypto and the tech hope nothing too much on your plate Jeffrey. 173 00:25:43.740 --> 00:25:52.860 Celeste Lindman: We love it when you come and you share those different levels with us and that insight at just been such a great add to ask the pro so i'm gonna let you take it away tell us what is this. 174 00:25:52.890 --> 00:25:58.440 Jeffry Turnmire: Okay, so so i'm going to put together, you know I guess a post up a. 175 00:25:59.640 --> 00:26:03.900 Jeffry Turnmire: theory I have it's kind of working through i've been working on for a couple days now i'm actually building. 176 00:26:04.500 --> 00:26:11.310 Jeffry Turnmire: A YouTube video been working on for two like I said two maybe three days now filming and editing it and. 177 00:26:11.760 --> 00:26:19.740 Jeffry Turnmire: i'm going to get it posted up soon and that'll be on my YouTube channel i'm just gonna hit hit some highlights today it'll be a little departure from what I normally do. 178 00:26:20.430 --> 00:26:25.650 Jeffry Turnmire: Usually i'm you know going through the charts showing you the technical levels but uh let's suppose for a minute. 179 00:26:26.400 --> 00:26:33.630 Jeffry Turnmire: That you know what let's talk about what recessions are I mean that's a reduced economic activity for at least two consecutive quarters. 180 00:26:34.380 --> 00:26:41.490 Jeffry Turnmire: Where we have contraction in the economy economy is not the stock market and the stock markets, not the economy, so we have to keep these separate a little bit. 181 00:26:42.930 --> 00:26:53.880 Jeffry Turnmire: And you know so two consecutive quarters and, on average, a recession happens every 58 months since World War Two so about every five years, we get one of these. 182 00:26:54.720 --> 00:27:04.170 Jeffry Turnmire: You know, ever since World War Two so we've got a substantial history running here and the average recession last 11.1 months. 183 00:27:04.830 --> 00:27:13.470 Jeffry Turnmire: So it's you know, for the time it starts the time it ends 11.1 months so less than a year and in 100% of the cases that we've had one. 184 00:27:14.010 --> 00:27:24.330 Jeffry Turnmire: The feds or whoever, you want to say is the official that identifies this recession happening identifies it when we're when it's either over or almost over. 185 00:27:24.960 --> 00:27:33.630 Jeffry Turnmire: So we get no like you know they don't ever even know we're in it until we're almost out of it, so these are key points in a recession now. 186 00:27:35.100 --> 00:27:44.340 Jeffry Turnmire: Anybody that's been trading knows the crypto topped out back in November 2021 we had all time highs it's been pretty much downhill from there we've lost. 187 00:27:45.240 --> 00:27:57.390 Jeffry Turnmire: Now, this weekend we hit 72% loss in the crypto market CAP as a whole, you can't tell me that that's not a huge drawback, you know losing over $2 trillion out of that market CAP. 188 00:27:57.930 --> 00:28:07.050 Jeffry Turnmire: for something that had just hit 3 trillion, I mean that's a huge pullback and then other things like tech has now pulled back bigger than it did during coven. 189 00:28:07.530 --> 00:28:14.340 Jeffry Turnmire: I mean that's that's the NASDAQ tech as a whole, you know, looking at big tech so coven we all thought we were going to die and and. 190 00:28:14.910 --> 00:28:21.420 Jeffry Turnmire: tech has pulled back in a bigger manner than we had during that that coven freak out in the market. 191 00:28:21.900 --> 00:28:29.760 Jeffry Turnmire: You know, we had also sectors like the price to sales over 20 that was you know, last time I was on Roger and I were talking about that sector and. 192 00:28:30.390 --> 00:28:39.630 Jeffry Turnmire: You know they they're down 60% since November, so a lot of these things I look at maybe they're the Canary maybe they are the leaders in the recession. 193 00:28:40.110 --> 00:28:59.490 Jeffry Turnmire: And now we're looking at you know the Fed trying to raise these interest rates and combat the inflation, but they could also kind of help us round out the bottom and as tech and crypto and some of these high level what were high flyers come out of the out of the bottom, we could see. 194 00:29:01.530 --> 00:29:09.180 Jeffry Turnmire: Things like home builders and lumber and construction all get hit as a consequence of these interest rate rises. 195 00:29:10.200 --> 00:29:12.900 Jeffry Turnmire: In it could it since that's a such a major. 196 00:29:13.950 --> 00:29:28.680 Jeffry Turnmire: Economic driver our economy, you know you have plumbers electricians hba see people little framers concrete people you know all the people all the trades people that work in this industry it's a huge segment of our economy that drives every day blue collar type people. 197 00:29:29.970 --> 00:29:43.140 Jeffry Turnmire: If they if they start getting to slow down do the interest rates and people, you know companies not investing in building homebuilders not able to sell their inventory, because of the mortgage rates, you know just going exponential here. 198 00:29:44.610 --> 00:29:51.030 Jeffry Turnmire: You know, like the mortgage rates just hit the highest level they've been in over 10 years, basically, since we came out of the housing crisis. 199 00:29:51.510 --> 00:29:57.840 Jeffry Turnmire: So these are things that are big red flags i'm already seeing a slowdown in this civil engineering business that we do. 200 00:29:58.110 --> 00:30:09.600 Jeffry Turnmire: As far as people asking us to lay out houses and stuff a lot of the home builders are taking it easy they're building more affordable housing less custom houses almost no spec houses in that's in our local. 201 00:30:09.660 --> 00:30:10.830 Jeffry Turnmire: You know, East Tennessee area. 202 00:30:11.160 --> 00:30:20.640 Jeffry Turnmire: So those are things to watch out for now um i'll share my screen here and actually give you some levels of stuff let's see pop up screen. 203 00:30:22.350 --> 00:30:37.560 Jeffry Turnmire: Here we go here's that a Russell reconstruction like I was sharing their they actually just hopping back briefly actually picked up the information from May 6 and then it goes into effect June 24 here so just tying that back in with. 204 00:30:38.700 --> 00:30:39.030 Jeffry Turnmire: With. 205 00:30:40.110 --> 00:30:49.950 Jeffry Turnmire: Roger there alright so s&p 500 this was right before I came on here i've had this red zone, here we gapped down back here about two weeks ago. 206 00:30:50.490 --> 00:31:01.770 Jeffry Turnmire: And where we kept hitting tops i've got a red zone, and today we were getting right up through it, the gap itself, I have drawn is an orange zone and that top comes out right at 3900. 207 00:31:02.160 --> 00:31:12.690 Jeffry Turnmire: that's where I have a 144 ma coming down to meet price, please zoom back up there, so right up in here, right at the top of the box in the 140 for me that's a. 208 00:31:13.080 --> 00:31:23.190 Jeffry Turnmire: watch out for that reaction, if we can pop right on through, and we have another consolidation, we did, and then another gap down, we did up there, and that takes us all the way back up. 209 00:31:25.350 --> 00:31:26.310 Jeffry Turnmire: I said 3900. 210 00:31:27.780 --> 00:31:28.140 Jeffry Turnmire: let's see. 211 00:31:30.420 --> 00:31:44.400 Jeffry Turnmire: I got the remove everybody's picture either way yeah so yeah 3900 right here at the top of this box, it takes us back up to the 4000 area where we get down the couple days before so. 212 00:31:45.510 --> 00:31:58.290 Jeffry Turnmire: watch out for this resistance zone in here, we could see consolidation or if the markets really going to give us a bullish rally for a little while we could you know just pop right on through these levels now, I do have kind of a bigger picture. 213 00:31:59.640 --> 00:32:08.910 Jeffry Turnmire: look on this recession that you know it could last 11 months if we started in November, you know that that could put us, you know, on average, puts us through October. 214 00:32:09.390 --> 00:32:16.710 Jeffry Turnmire: And what's coming up in November elections well that can be a catalyst for us to you know pull up out of this recession. 215 00:32:17.190 --> 00:32:23.760 Jeffry Turnmire: So i'm not going to say it's over or it's done or it's just starting i'm not sure we could be 567 months into it. 216 00:32:24.330 --> 00:32:39.030 Jeffry Turnmire: And we could see some chop in the markets in a in general, you know, maybe a little rally through Labor day like I talked about last time I was on, and then we can see a downdraft correction into the election and then that we can bounce right out of that and. 217 00:32:40.140 --> 00:32:48.450 Jeffry Turnmire: You know continue on to all time highs as we move into 2023 and 2024 so that's kind of what i'm seeing right there. 218 00:32:49.470 --> 00:33:01.440 Jeffry Turnmire: You did ask me to briefly talk about crypto so I can pull it up, and you know we did break down a whole new level and we just scrape the top of my target area down here in. 219 00:33:02.160 --> 00:33:14.550 Jeffry Turnmire: This lower zone here around 17 18,000 on bitcoin and we're consolidating right around 20,000 a lot of the crypto miners out there are deeply underwater at 20,000 most of them did there. 220 00:33:15.060 --> 00:33:26.370 Jeffry Turnmire: The borrowing of capital and stuff based on a 30 mid $30,000 bitcoin price, so we may see some mergers and acquisitions in the crypto minor space if. 221 00:33:26.880 --> 00:33:37.680 Jeffry Turnmire: bitcoins price hangs out here in the 20s very long, you know, three or four months can really put a damper on that industry, we can see some mergers and acquisitions and consolidations and. 222 00:33:38.220 --> 00:33:48.480 Jeffry Turnmire: I do believe that you know crypto is going to be pulling out of here, and it may be one of the Canaries that points to the recession leading its way back out of here, along with tech so. 223 00:33:48.960 --> 00:33:57.180 Jeffry Turnmire: that's a kind of a wrap on what I gotta say you know you got I think we're lead into what Tom and Jeff we're going to talk about some commodities that stuff. 224 00:33:58.170 --> 00:34:08.700 Jeffry Turnmire: yeah oil has been outperforming by four standard deviations for the general market oil and other energy, so there is an opportunity for the market and energy to to come back together. 225 00:34:09.360 --> 00:34:21.540 Jeffry Turnmire: So, whether that's SMP rallying or energy, you know consulting a little bit or maybe you know s&p just outperforms oil and other energy as we, as everything rallies yeah. 226 00:34:21.600 --> 00:34:30.480 Celeste Lindman: that's great information is going to be really interesting to see how it all comes together but we've got a lot of great headlines right here to pull together and help us to kind of get in the right direction. 227 00:34:30.750 --> 00:34:40.380 Celeste Lindman: love your thoughts there about you know crude and and bitcoin being or crypto is you know canaries that kind of thing that's really very insightful, thank you for that Jeffrey and. 228 00:34:40.740 --> 00:34:52.320 Celeste Lindman: And you know, some people were asking you, I think these are some good questions, maybe we could just ask a little bit here real quick, you know, like what about like for anybody, you know Tom you know Jeff Jeff Roger you know. 229 00:34:52.920 --> 00:35:02.670 Celeste Lindman: Two questions here, you know that, so how can part, you know how can the market go up when the Fed is removing the liquidity and here's another good question you know. 230 00:35:03.210 --> 00:35:09.720 Celeste Lindman: we've got some unrest in the US with some you know supreme court decisions, and you know already some. 231 00:35:10.320 --> 00:35:24.360 Celeste Lindman: You know rioting and that type of thing going on What impact do you think any of those things have on the market, especially with that that's pulling that liquidity out and then we've got the writing that potential writing, what do you guys thought, what do you think anybody. 232 00:35:24.990 --> 00:35:28.140 Roger Scott: Well i'll i'll start the the roe vs Wade of. 233 00:35:28.560 --> 00:35:39.990 Roger Scott: All that I honestly don't have any opinion on that at all, one way or the other i've never done any kind of studies, but I mean unless things go really crazy I don't see it really having a major impact on our economy. 234 00:35:40.440 --> 00:35:45.450 Roger Scott: And usually they don't, at least not in the short term, maybe down the line, five years from now. 235 00:35:46.560 --> 00:35:57.060 Roger Scott: that's way way unforeseeable but in terms of in terms of the other factors in terms of all the other factors that we have going on right now. 236 00:35:57.660 --> 00:36:05.550 Roger Scott: I think it's possible that that the liquidity issue could have an impact, but again it's already priced in and we knew it was going to happen. 237 00:36:05.880 --> 00:36:12.360 Roger Scott: So it's something that the market has discounted in its price already or should have discounted price more importantly. 238 00:36:12.690 --> 00:36:23.040 Roger Scott: That liquidity would impact the bond market more than the stock market and and the bond market for the last two months outside of one week has been completely choppy and has lost his downward bias. 239 00:36:23.430 --> 00:36:36.150 Roger Scott: So in my opinion, based on what i'm seeing in the market is that that aspect is priced in and also we've kind of known about this liquidity issue for a long, long time so it's not a big surprise and anything that's. 240 00:36:37.110 --> 00:36:41.340 Roger Scott: that's prevalent his way priced into the market that's my five cents on that. 241 00:36:41.940 --> 00:36:42.930 Celeste Lindman: What do you think jt. 242 00:36:43.590 --> 00:36:52.380 Jeffry Turnmire: Well, I mean you know all these things, create some uncertainty in the markets, you know uncertain certainly about this uncertainty about that. 243 00:36:53.070 --> 00:37:08.310 Jeffry Turnmire: We we watch vic's and right now it's it's on a downtrend and that kind of says that people are less concerned about future volatility in the market, you know as as vix and the vics derive products kind of drift off of their highs. 244 00:37:10.080 --> 00:37:20.370 Jeffry Turnmire: Were traders are feeling like they have some certainty we're not feeling like we're going to have big volatility to the downside and big volatility the upside necessarily so um. 245 00:37:21.090 --> 00:37:26.070 Jeffry Turnmire: I think, right now, traders are just kind of taking it easy that we don't see a lot of unrest. 246 00:37:26.910 --> 00:37:32.820 Jeffry Turnmire: coming into the markets, right now, or at least you know the the products that are predicting that sort of thing don't. 247 00:37:33.450 --> 00:37:44.550 Jeffry Turnmire: And you know it can it can be uncertain on what you pick up and I did start a beta test for something where you can just watch one stock and get you know nine to 12 trades, a month potentially. 248 00:37:45.930 --> 00:37:48.180 Jeffry Turnmire: And I think Adam through a link there a second ago. 249 00:37:49.470 --> 00:37:59.910 Jeffry Turnmire: Come come check it out if you're interested in that beta testing, you know check it out we're gonna I brought in a beta test for an IBM product, a few months ago, a lot of people have been super happy with that. 250 00:38:00.390 --> 00:38:08.550 Jeffry Turnmire: And we launched it out as a full product, and this is another chance to get in on a beta test idea that i'm working on right now so come check it out. 251 00:38:09.120 --> 00:38:19.530 Celeste Lindman: Great yeah follow that link and get get involved there find out what Jeffrey is doing with all these things great information to and I don't know Tom what are your thoughts about you know. 252 00:38:20.220 --> 00:38:33.600 Celeste Lindman: The fed the liquidity, you know even this question too about you know the GDP information coming out, you know negative hot you know and being backwards looking on the recession, what are your thoughts. 253 00:38:33.840 --> 00:38:45.480 Tom Busby: Well, I first of all, my view is is the number sort of tell me what to do, and you know, obviously I just got the phone, by the way ahead, take a call from a client of mine, his wife it. 254 00:38:46.770 --> 00:38:57.720 Tom Busby: had been a little sick and she failed all that long time you know you know Donna Donna, Neil everybody knows Donna, Neil, you should be coming to our class. 255 00:38:58.230 --> 00:39:07.740 Tom Busby: But he said, the last thing he told me that I heard you in January, so this markets headed down and I took all my money out of the mark, because I was new I was going through. 256 00:39:08.700 --> 00:39:22.530 Tom Busby: Some issues and he said about 25% I saved him but not investing and I said well use my day telling me that because it's been a rough you know, a rough time from January to present. 257 00:39:23.040 --> 00:39:35.640 Tom Busby: And, but as far as the market goes we're coming up on a key date for me anyways July 4 was very interest what Roger had to say about the near term in there, I look. 258 00:39:36.300 --> 00:39:43.140 Tom Busby: For the one time in a year, probably when i'm not thinking so near term i'm thinking about the money, I may. 259 00:39:43.770 --> 00:39:51.270 Tom Busby: be an open minded other words and what I mean by that is the people you know this work will be a while I think of things. 260 00:39:52.260 --> 00:39:59.970 Tom Busby: Like a T square on the left hand side Washington market go up on the right hand side, why should it go down and I always. 261 00:40:00.330 --> 00:40:14.010 Tom Busby: Have judge and jury waiting that evidence not do it all the time, you know short term long time or whatever, but July 4 is like a rebirth in the sense that that when July 4 comes to things happen. 262 00:40:14.940 --> 00:40:32.640 Tom Busby: And if you go check this out, no and all but you'll get an acceleration of this downtrend after July 4 it will happen about three days after the month opens or you will get a reversal of the downtrend and i'll give you some numbers here in. 263 00:40:33.780 --> 00:40:45.900 Tom Busby: 2020 we were up about 16% we were up another 8% for the second half the year 2021 we're up 23% and we were up close to 10%. 264 00:40:46.260 --> 00:41:06.060 Tom Busby: In 2021 that second half, so you had accelerations on July, the fourth now it's been a while, since we've had a downtrend to reverse, and so I had to I still had finished it up and i'll do that when I checked my data, but I do remember and. 265 00:41:07.170 --> 00:41:08.340 Tom Busby: I remember the. 266 00:41:10.050 --> 00:41:18.420 Tom Busby: rally that we bought on march after March of 2009 and how it stopped. 267 00:41:20.190 --> 00:41:33.060 Tom Busby: Once we got the July 4 and went and sort of a sideways action, so I think there's so much different viewpoints that last fine i've been telling my people this week is. 268 00:41:33.750 --> 00:41:49.080 Tom Busby: definitely do this every year if you're with me leading into July 4 I take it really safe right now I might have one or two positions on here and there, but I am not into the into the game of. 269 00:41:49.590 --> 00:41:55.680 Tom Busby: buying and selling there right now i'm looking at things and setting up, I thought, yesterday I might have a short time. 270 00:41:56.010 --> 00:42:03.600 Tom Busby: Trade setup and it was like a it was a nothing burger so I sent a message today keep your hands in your pocket stay patient. 271 00:42:03.900 --> 00:42:13.170 Tom Busby: But that's so important for me around the July 4 time period because i'm open minded if the market goes up i'll be long more it goes down i'll be sure. 272 00:42:13.650 --> 00:42:22.560 Tom Busby: that's the way I think about it and i'll have the evidence to do that now this chart you're looking at I went to university of Georgia great business bill. 273 00:42:23.310 --> 00:42:32.880 Tom Busby: And I saw this chart I said, if I had this chart maybe I could have saved for years going to college, because this is stages of an economic side. 274 00:42:33.480 --> 00:42:46.710 Tom Busby: And you look Stage one you know the market goes goes down bonds go up stage two stocks and bonds go up in commodities go down. 275 00:42:47.250 --> 00:42:56.280 Tom Busby: And then you get everything start moving up as you're expanding, I think, by anybody's measurement we're not expanding our economy right. 276 00:42:56.760 --> 00:43:02.760 Tom Busby: You can't say this is like it was in 20 oh it's not like it was in 21 so you move on to stage. 277 00:43:03.750 --> 00:43:21.300 Tom Busby: Four and bonds i've been telling we've had a wonderful short and bonds this year, you know from January to hear states five we've had a wonderful short and bonds and stocks here's where I think we are a thing we're in Stage six okay stay six. 278 00:43:21.750 --> 00:43:27.840 Tom Busby: tells you that bond stocks and commodities will go down and Jeff alluded to it when he said hey. 279 00:43:28.920 --> 00:43:41.190 Tom Busby: The markets been pulling back in from a seasonal point of view it's been pulling back quite a quite a bit, if you look at you know the crude market but 10 days into the month you dropped 16%. 280 00:43:41.670 --> 00:43:49.260 Tom Busby: In all prices so that's why July 4 is really important to me because, maybe we're going to start. 281 00:43:49.950 --> 00:43:57.120 Tom Busby: A different phase, who knows, but here's something that people can do this very interesting and what I found out about this and. 282 00:43:57.990 --> 00:44:10.650 Tom Busby: A half and out something I read, but you can go to the lana fed and they give you a real time up day of GDP is estimate and they take all the data end its current. 283 00:44:11.280 --> 00:44:28.260 Tom Busby: Do the math and write down for this quarter we're talking about zero growth, it was a point nine growth, it was it 2.5 group grow i'm not a a chartist per se, but if i'm a two and a half. 284 00:44:29.460 --> 00:44:38.460 Tom Busby: One point, point nine nine to zero, curiously what next reading is by the way, next really will be after Monday, when we get some more data to throw in there. 285 00:44:38.790 --> 00:44:49.950 Tom Busby: that's a great website for people would go into the fall what the GDP is doing it's real numbers and it tells you what the economy's doing now, the next slide. 286 00:44:51.450 --> 00:45:07.800 Tom Busby: We have another slide here don't worry at all okay yeah copper, if you look at copper and Jessica there's a big copper God loves his comments, but coppers fell out of bed well, you need copper for expansion. 287 00:45:08.340 --> 00:45:08.760 mm hmm. 288 00:45:10.140 --> 00:45:10.860 Roger Scott: very true. 289 00:45:11.880 --> 00:45:15.480 Tom Busby: That doesn't look like me we're expanding COP okay next slide. 290 00:45:19.440 --> 00:45:22.680 Tom Busby: Now this sort of support. 291 00:45:24.480 --> 00:45:33.990 Tom Busby: riders through mark is going to rally from you this chart says that when you're down like we have been and you get down. 292 00:45:35.130 --> 00:45:39.630 Tom Busby: The rest of the year it's pretty good odds, it might go up, if you look at those numbers here. 293 00:45:40.320 --> 00:45:48.480 Tom Busby: And that's a chart that tells me to be open mind okay that chart right there tells me a better be open minded okay. 294 00:45:48.810 --> 00:45:57.210 Tom Busby: But I just thought it was an interesting chart because we are greater than 15% down for year and since 1928 to present. 295 00:45:58.080 --> 00:46:13.470 Tom Busby: You know market does historically rebound from these levels but here's the key and I don't have that answer, yet what is going to be low this year Okay, now we haven't loaded was created. 296 00:46:15.450 --> 00:46:16.800 Tom Busby: What was it, it was a. 297 00:46:17.970 --> 00:46:22.650 Tom Busby: Black Friday I think 36 let me find it real quick for you. 298 00:46:22.740 --> 00:46:24.120 Roger Scott: is right around last Friday Tom. 299 00:46:24.480 --> 00:46:43.350 Tom Busby: yeah but 3637 3639 i'll remember Okay, and we rallied off that love will that be the low of the year, I don't know, but this chart here comes into play, once we made that loan whenever it is and so that's that's an interesting chart to me next. 300 00:46:44.970 --> 00:47:04.260 Tom Busby: Okay, the march 2020 Kovac crashes, the only recent bear market with a fast decline and fast recover the.com bust oh eight he took about a year to play out and around a full three years Ricardo now think about that three years to recover. 301 00:47:06.480 --> 00:47:11.550 Tom Busby: Where does that put it puts you about 2024. 302 00:47:11.670 --> 00:47:13.560 Tom Busby: If it takes that long to recover. 303 00:47:13.830 --> 00:47:27.510 Tom Busby: meaning the economy recovers tomorrow and gets better and all that so if it appears to me that you're gonna have to be very tactical where you're trading going forward, and I mean. 304 00:47:28.110 --> 00:47:49.200 Tom Busby: Good stocks will go up bad stocks will go down and the timeframe you hold the baby has got to be kept in mind when you make you know you take positions and stuff like that that would be my advice, be very careful now there's a little picture of that chart that shows. 305 00:47:51.180 --> 00:48:04.230 Tom Busby: What i'm talking about the length of these these kind of declines very short very lengthy, on average, you know, but two years just to give you an idea OK and. 306 00:48:06.180 --> 00:48:14.130 Tom Busby: Now this is interesting it's hard to score points with Defense on the on the field what's on the field your health care stocks. 307 00:48:15.270 --> 00:48:18.210 Tom Busby: You real estate you X LP. 308 00:48:19.230 --> 00:48:28.050 Tom Busby: And utilities, those are those are your stocks that you could go hide in a little bit during this kind of fight. 309 00:48:29.190 --> 00:48:36.210 Tom Busby: So anyway that's that's sort of a adjust of what I would say that, yes, this rally that. 310 00:48:36.210 --> 00:48:37.290 Tom Busby: We got going now. 311 00:48:38.670 --> 00:48:46.890 Tom Busby: So I sort of think that it might set up for a good play coming in July because clearly. 312 00:48:47.550 --> 00:48:57.390 Tom Busby: This is the first way that we're going to have a winning week in the market and over four or five weeks this market is strong today, if you look at it, I mean you got. 313 00:48:58.020 --> 00:49:07.710 Tom Busby: The Dallas about 625 you got the s&p up, so the question is not how low we're going to go right now, the question is how how we're going to go on around. 314 00:49:08.640 --> 00:49:20.940 Tom Busby: All right, July 4 right dead date down, I will be able to give you that if you're able to come to that seminar the webinar that i'm doing on July 4 i've done it now for 20 years. 315 00:49:21.450 --> 00:49:29.340 Tom Busby: And I don't have all the answers yet, because this is what I spend this time doing research and figured out into the picture POPs in my head so. 316 00:49:30.510 --> 00:49:35.880 Tom Busby: i'd leave you with be open minded, because if you're open open minded. 317 00:49:37.230 --> 00:49:49.260 Tom Busby: You just do what number 10 you'll feel a lot better than dying to do what the numbers okay buy stock start making money will hold on to it, you sell stock start making money with it hold on to. 318 00:49:49.770 --> 00:50:00.090 Tom Busby: don't try to be somebody looked into the crystal ball and trade your real money would that do what the numbers tell us all i'd say that's my best advice so. 319 00:50:01.350 --> 00:50:04.320 Tom Busby: went a little long was I was I supposed to keep going or. 320 00:50:04.410 --> 00:50:06.720 Celeste Lindman: No you're doing great you're doing great we're gonna. 321 00:50:06.780 --> 00:50:10.260 Celeste Lindman: we're gonna hear back from you again to that we want to hear from Jeff as well. 322 00:50:10.410 --> 00:50:12.240 Tom Busby: I got something to my. 323 00:50:12.360 --> 00:50:14.760 Tom Busby: game okay three more points. 324 00:50:16.980 --> 00:50:34.050 Tom Busby: The first point is that every now and i've talked a lot of people at sawgrass I thought, a lot of people then lost a lot of money, because they they were you know, following this is a good by story, you know what I mean and they lost a lot of money okay. 325 00:50:35.850 --> 00:50:37.260 Tom Busby: My advice to everybody. 326 00:50:38.310 --> 00:50:55.650 Tom Busby: You can save your year use this time to educate yourself learn this is where Roger he had periods in his career he just been studying and learning all this stuff Jeff done it i've done jeffrey's new in the market i'm sure he's doing it. 327 00:50:56.070 --> 00:50:59.700 Tom Busby: Learn educate yourself that's number one number two. 328 00:51:01.200 --> 00:51:03.600 Tom Busby: If you want to replace. 329 00:51:04.650 --> 00:51:19.350 Tom Busby: Education and training get somebody that's got some experience going through this deal because you're going to learn being and seeing how that thinking goes summer markets different then. 330 00:51:20.910 --> 00:51:27.900 Tom Busby: The winter market and we're in the summer market right now, you gotta learn to trade each season so i'll be quiet for a second. 331 00:51:28.890 --> 00:51:46.140 Celeste Lindman: Great well let's catch up with Jeff Smith and find out more about these commodities and how it's all playing into the economy, and I mean great slides that Tom put up there with the business cycle and so forth, so Jeff tell us you know what is the beef with commodities. 332 00:51:47.580 --> 00:51:49.830 Geof Smith: i'm just giving a brief in commodities. 333 00:51:51.480 --> 00:51:54.060 Geof Smith: The I guess the biggest question is where's the beef right. 334 00:51:55.410 --> 00:52:05.130 Geof Smith: When we start looking at the cattle business right now i'm sure some people have heard what happened What was it about 10 days ago 12 days ago. 335 00:52:06.300 --> 00:52:15.660 Geof Smith: or somewhere and they don't know because they don't have to report it you got some sources say about 2000 head and other source in about 10,000 head. 336 00:52:16.770 --> 00:52:24.510 Geof Smith: of cattle died in Kansas, and the reason for that is the unfortunately got mobiles weather up there. 337 00:52:25.860 --> 00:52:34.260 Geof Smith: They they're usually very, very arid up there, the humidity i'm I used to live up in Texas panhandle just south of know the. 338 00:52:35.070 --> 00:52:49.590 Geof Smith: Oklahoma panhandle and Kansas and it's about 3000 feet up there, and so at night, even though on the summertime we might hit 110 hundred and 15 degrees, but it's cool off to about 65 so I mean the really nice in the evenings. 339 00:52:50.790 --> 00:52:58.830 Geof Smith: But that humidity runs right around 25% well they got 80% humidity and 140 degree temperatures. 340 00:52:59.220 --> 00:53:08.370 Geof Smith: And when you get that you can't cool off at night, and we were only getting back down to about 7778 degrees well the cattle could be cool off. 341 00:53:08.760 --> 00:53:15.480 Geof Smith: And so the weaker ones, probably most of the weak ones who died off because of that, and they probably still have some of their winter coat on. 342 00:53:15.990 --> 00:53:23.190 Geof Smith: And so, if they can't cool off and then just gonna burn up, I mean unfortunately and that's kind of what happened. 343 00:53:23.880 --> 00:53:34.200 Geof Smith: The thing is, is what is that haskell county I think is the name of it man I hadn't been around so long they have about 395,000 hidden that one county. 344 00:53:34.740 --> 00:53:46.530 Geof Smith: So losing a couple thousand isn't that bad looking at the big picture, yet I mean you think about this a live cattle contract controls about 35 cows right. 345 00:53:47.160 --> 00:54:04.170 Geof Smith: Well, if you're losing 2000 that's 57 contracts you just lost ouch when trade 57 contracts like cabinet right so that's that's the biggest thing is, is, I mean somebody lost her and they probably know, killed their livelihood, which is unfortunate. 346 00:54:05.280 --> 00:54:11.370 Geof Smith: But That being said, I think most people have been going to the stores and kind of seeing the price of beef lately haven't you. 347 00:54:12.420 --> 00:54:13.890 Geof Smith: it's not real cheap. 348 00:54:14.130 --> 00:54:14.610 Geof Smith: and 349 00:54:14.820 --> 00:54:29.250 Geof Smith: The people in the United States because of that have actually backed off purchasing beef usually the the hanging beef on the just the carcass itself that butchers grab and they chop it all up and bb sticks you want a hamburger whatever it is. 350 00:54:30.660 --> 00:54:37.440 Geof Smith: But that hanging beef has actually gone up about 25% over the past month and a half well. 351 00:54:37.920 --> 00:54:47.340 Geof Smith: Usually year to year itself around two or 3% and in one month has jumped up 25% so people have backed off not buying beef because of that. 352 00:54:47.700 --> 00:55:02.340 Geof Smith: And you've seen the same thing happened in the hog market as well, so because of that, I think we're going to start seeing cattle prices start moving lower just because well they don't eat carrots, because to get all the meat hanging, as it is. 353 00:55:03.630 --> 00:55:12.750 Geof Smith: And so I think we're going to start seeing cattle prices start backing off a little bit and if even if you look at on here i'm going to share my screen because everybody else got to. 354 00:55:12.810 --> 00:55:14.760 Celeste Lindman: hey you can do that. 355 00:55:17.520 --> 00:55:25.050 Geof Smith: And this right here, this is just a copper charter daily copper chart That was my barometer Tom already showed you this so we don't need to do that anymore. 356 00:55:26.430 --> 00:55:36.600 Geof Smith: But we look at Catalan course, this is the live cat it's a daily chart this kind of been all over the place, but it has been actually weakening up quite a bit. 357 00:55:38.400 --> 00:55:44.820 Geof Smith: There we go off of the highs and now all the commodities have kind of pulled back somewhat and. 358 00:55:45.210 --> 00:56:00.960 Geof Smith: So I think that's been kind of normal looking at you know the overall cycle people taking a lot of profit out of a lot of these commodities and things in fact just to kind of give you a a gander here real quickly I keep this on my screen. 359 00:56:02.610 --> 00:56:08.130 Geof Smith: You can kind of see along here, this is the percent change from the year open is what this is. 360 00:56:08.580 --> 00:56:16.470 Geof Smith: I made my own little define symbols and stuff you can see crude oil still up 41% even though it's just pulled back 16% is still up 41%. 361 00:56:16.860 --> 00:56:32.190 Geof Smith: Gas lines up 67% natural gas 67% heating oil up at one point, all the commodities are still up and you go down into the grains corns up 12 move soybeans up six weeks up 23% still even though is corrected back. 362 00:56:33.120 --> 00:56:42.900 Geof Smith: And I think they're just taking some profit out of what they've got and I think this little correction back is just very, very temporary I mean when you saw crude oil yanked back. 363 00:56:43.800 --> 00:56:52.140 Geof Smith: I mean, I was going we'll test 95 we can start buying this thing and it's actually got down to what was it 94 Tom something like that. 364 00:56:53.280 --> 00:57:07.650 Geof Smith: So, but all of a sudden is popped right back up again I think we're going to continue to see that, however, on the cattle side of things, because of high feed prices, I think you're going to see cattle prices dropping off and you're going to have less. 365 00:57:09.360 --> 00:57:11.850 Geof Smith: Quality of beef, because of that. 366 00:57:13.080 --> 00:57:19.650 Geof Smith: And I think kind of go along the same lines, here, the week market right now we're at harvest and wheat. 367 00:57:21.060 --> 00:57:27.060 Geof Smith: And the I think they're going to have a whole lot less week than what the usda is saying in my opinion. 368 00:57:29.100 --> 00:57:39.690 Geof Smith: I think this year Kansas Colorado Oklahoma combined will not produce as much weed is just Kansas did last year. 369 00:57:40.890 --> 00:57:47.670 Geof Smith: I think you're going to have a lot of abandonment and what I mean by that is they're not going to harvest it they're just going to go just because it's burned up. 370 00:57:48.540 --> 00:57:51.840 Geof Smith: Or the weather, has just destroyed it or whatever it may be. 371 00:57:52.410 --> 00:58:07.290 Geof Smith: So I think you're going to see we prices, even though they've corrected back you can see it's the strongest green that we've got I think it's going to continue to be that way not only that, but just real quick thing about Ukraine over there, they have ports over there that North American. 372 00:58:08.640 --> 00:58:13.650 Geof Smith: I guess companies actually have import, export ports there. 373 00:58:14.400 --> 00:58:21.330 Geof Smith: they've been bombed and destroyed, so we can't do anything pushing anything over there and they can't get anything out really right so. 374 00:58:21.690 --> 00:58:35.460 Geof Smith: And that's going to be huge in the week market as well, so I think there's gonna be a big demand on our wheat and we're going to have less week than what we had last year, so I think we're going to see we prices continue to move back up so as far as the energies. 375 00:58:36.780 --> 00:58:45.300 Geof Smith: If you have heard about this fantastic gas holiday, which is the dumbest thing known demand. 376 00:58:46.950 --> 00:58:58.440 Geof Smith: is going to do the total opposite of what they think is going to do if you go out there and cut people's price on gas What do people do hey I can buy more gas we can drive more. 377 00:58:58.980 --> 00:59:09.150 Geof Smith: So you're going to put a huge demand on that and Lo and behold, it can drive gasoline prices right back up again it's going to erase that 18 cents, or whatever they're going to try to take off of their. 378 00:59:10.170 --> 00:59:20.310 Geof Smith: Coupled with that we're I mean we're basically at a nine year low on our refinery capacity on gasoline right now, and you, I mean with that. 379 00:59:20.730 --> 00:59:27.780 Geof Smith: Being that low and with the demand that they're going to create I think you're going to see gasoline prices push a lot higher if they're going to do that. 380 00:59:28.650 --> 00:59:42.840 Geof Smith: I would recommend they just let the market take care of it and they don't put their little fingers in it stir the pot so but be aware of that, I think you're going to see a lot higher price resist they do do that right now I think everybody's just kind of. 381 00:59:44.310 --> 00:59:51.090 Geof Smith: Driving as little as possible and saving as much as they can on that fuel so but anyway. 382 00:59:52.170 --> 00:59:55.140 Geof Smith: All a step to the sidelines from there. 383 00:59:56.550 --> 01:00:01.740 Celeste Lindman: What about this question, you know how will we know about the lower wheat harvest. 384 01:00:02.460 --> 01:00:18.000 Geof Smith: um well it's not unusual this time of year, I mean you've heard the term harvest lows it's not unusual at all for us going into the harvest season is because you have an abundance right supply demand so on at harvest, you have an abundance and therefore you're going to see. 385 01:00:19.110 --> 01:00:23.130 Geof Smith: Usually, wheat and soy beans and corn hippies lows also this time of year. 386 01:00:23.940 --> 01:00:39.750 Geof Smith: When you look at like corn cotton cotton cotton even soybeans are fall winter no harvest product, but this time of year is their lowest export in time so they're at their kind of their lows also because well, you have old crop new crop. 387 01:00:41.160 --> 01:00:51.780 Geof Smith: And I think what you're going to see is that's gonna we're gonna we might go down for another week or so and my consolidate down in here, but I think after that you're going to start seeing things start pushing back higher again. 388 01:00:52.830 --> 01:00:59.610 Geof Smith: Now soy beans I don't know we're gonna have a lot of soybeans a lot of, and the only reason for that is just because of inputs as fertilizer. 389 01:01:00.630 --> 01:01:17.850 Geof Smith: corn takes a lot the fertilizer soybeans don't take as much so, probably a lot of them are converting over from their corn and soybean, so I think you see that soybean market is actually your weakest grain, I think, just because they're anticipating this having a pretty big know. 390 01:01:18.990 --> 01:01:23.190 Geof Smith: harvest in the swimming market, so there it is. 391 01:01:23.580 --> 01:01:32.250 Celeste Lindman: And then another question that we should just put out there, because a lot of people are asking this question, and that is should should we short energy. 392 01:01:33.600 --> 01:01:34.830 Geof Smith: I wouldn't short energy. 393 01:01:35.190 --> 01:01:39.420 Geof Smith: And why is it I don't see how that thing is going to turn around. 394 01:01:39.480 --> 01:01:40.080 Roger Scott: I mean they. 395 01:01:40.770 --> 01:01:41.940 Geof Smith: don't mean it's crazy, I mean. 396 01:01:44.220 --> 01:01:53.520 Geof Smith: I mean you might look for buying opportunities i'll say it that way by the dips I don't care, but I mean I would not be shorting if you're day trading it okay fine whatever. 397 01:01:54.450 --> 01:02:01.980 Geof Smith: But if you're looking to something longer term if you're trying to you know get into Exxon or Devon or or Chevron Texaco buy the dips. 398 01:02:02.970 --> 01:02:15.150 Geof Smith: I think they're going to continue to do well, and so no don't short energy now i'll say this cruel bus at five bucks okay i'll rethink that but, until it does that i'm not going to do it. 399 01:02:16.260 --> 01:02:29.400 Roger Scott: yeah I just posted an interesting article Warren Buffett Warren Warren Buffett June 23 Warren Buffett buys more $529 million of Occidental petroleum this week yeah. 400 01:02:31.170 --> 01:02:43.170 Roger Scott: yeah and which happens to be my number one energy stop but that's besides the point but uh yeah I think anybody who wants to short oil is out of their mind right now yeah seriously that's that's my my five cents. 401 01:02:43.620 --> 01:02:45.480 Tom Busby: that's why I wanted, I want to ask me. 402 01:02:46.350 --> 01:02:46.590 Geof Smith: What do you. 403 01:02:49.260 --> 01:02:50.100 Why are you today. 404 01:02:51.300 --> 01:02:51.960 Tom Busby: I would do. 405 01:02:52.710 --> 01:03:08.700 Tom Busby: I would wait to July, the fourth and come to my webinar and i'll give you well, I think the most probable direction for energy be open minded and we'll wait to July, for you, I don't think right now, between now and July 4. 406 01:03:09.180 --> 01:03:17.250 Tom Busby: It dogs in favor of the long or short that's what I think Okay, and I think that's where Jeff what's coming is that right now. 407 01:03:17.760 --> 01:03:31.590 Tom Busby: Like you know he do that little caveat in there if it goes below 85 I might consider it Okay, but really the way we do things that DTI is on a monthly basis and our our. 408 01:03:33.120 --> 01:03:40.590 Tom Busby: Our deal right now is let's just keep our hands around pocket there's plenty of money Mike energy market, but you gotta be a little patient. 409 01:03:41.340 --> 01:03:49.350 Celeste Lindman: let's talk a little bit more about those things that you do at DTI you guys have a great program that is a way that people can put money in their pockets. 410 01:03:49.680 --> 01:03:59.640 Celeste Lindman: You know, following you along using the roadmap software, using all this experience that you have in the markets, tell us a little bit more about some opportunities, you have for our folks. 411 01:04:00.420 --> 01:04:11.850 Tom Busby: Sure it's that time again and July, what we do every other month and DTI I really believe the no greater experience and live trading. 412 01:04:12.210 --> 01:04:19.140 Tom Busby: In front of people, because when you live trade in front of people you sort of leave all that other stuff on the sidelines, you have to do. 413 01:04:19.410 --> 01:04:28.560 Tom Busby: Well, when you do that, or they won't be there we've grown every every time we've offered this we get more and more people that find out about it but. 414 01:04:28.800 --> 01:04:39.630 Tom Busby: Not only do we live trade we give live education in the market and here's the big bonus Jeff and I do it together and you get into. 415 01:04:40.080 --> 01:04:46.680 Tom Busby: You know, getting all those years of experience you get all this knowledge, it really is a fun time for me. 416 01:04:47.610 --> 01:04:58.260 Tom Busby: To hear what really get into what Jeff is thinking at that time because it's so interesting because you can really develop a rapport is a lot of work. 417 01:04:58.740 --> 01:05:08.820 Tom Busby: And that's why we do it every other month, but we do it on Fridays, and I call it payday Friday so mark means days down Okay, these are important days coming up. 418 01:05:10.710 --> 01:05:11.880 Tom Busby: Where are they at mom. 419 01:05:13.980 --> 01:05:15.390 Geof Smith: Well it's every Friday next month. 420 01:05:15.720 --> 01:05:17.850 Tom Busby: yeah calendar. 421 01:05:18.600 --> 01:05:19.470 Celeste Lindman: Day in July. 422 01:05:19.920 --> 01:05:22.590 Tom Busby: I believe we did this to me I can't believe. 423 01:05:24.750 --> 01:05:24.900 Adam Mowrey: It. 424 01:05:26.700 --> 01:05:27.210 Tom Busby: June. 425 01:05:27.720 --> 01:05:27.870 or. 426 01:05:32.430 --> 01:05:36.810 Jeffry Turnmire: July 1 July 8 July 15 20 22nd July 29. 427 01:05:42.780 --> 01:05:44.310 Celeste Lindman: So it's been Friday. 428 01:05:44.940 --> 01:05:47.310 Tom Busby: Good dessert Sunday here we go some top gun. 429 01:05:48.930 --> 01:05:49.950 Tom Busby: desert okay. 430 01:05:51.000 --> 01:06:02.520 Tom Busby: Anyway, that's her day okay and randall said he likes he really says what I said nothing like hands on get educated and learn how to do this. 431 01:06:04.650 --> 01:06:13.530 Tom Busby: Our goals make money trading learning and I love that I love it because it's like the old days when we were traveling around in front of people. 432 01:06:14.010 --> 01:06:27.510 Tom Busby: No matter what the market, did you had to get up in front of people and trade, and we have a lot of great experiences doing it, but we always educated, the House of the wind, when we were doing things, so I think it's a pretty exciting. 433 01:06:28.260 --> 01:06:38.670 Tom Busby: hour we do, and we do education market analysis of trading Oh, we record all sessions and that's important next slide. 434 01:06:40.500 --> 01:06:46.590 Tom Busby: Why don't we do that because I believe we we go at a speed when you're live trading. 435 01:06:47.100 --> 01:06:53.310 Tom Busby: Unless you're very experienced don't pick up all the little subtleties you might buy you get time to buy it or sell it. 436 01:06:53.700 --> 01:07:09.780 Tom Busby: But at the end of that trade you get a true expert advice of analysis of what we did, why we did it and you can go listen to it at your own pace and absorb it that's the bag, I think the recorded sessions. 437 01:07:13.500 --> 01:07:28.080 Roger Scott: it's a great session folks you really need to check it out it's it's a I I go to them, sometimes on the you know, on the download when when T bus can't see me in there and I watch and listen to them and I learned a lot of value it's really good stuff highly highly recommend it. 438 01:07:28.080 --> 01:07:38.910 Tom Busby: yeah they tried, we put on just good laughs at our we keep up with it detected email, so I want to really be by hand will come back to say this, what we're doing with it, and all that. 439 01:07:39.180 --> 01:07:47.610 Tom Busby: and keep the trades active okay so it's not like you can get into tribes, and just stay in tune with what we're doing with those products. 440 01:07:52.440 --> 01:07:56.550 Tom Busby: Whatever like deal is why we go up down sideways. 441 01:07:58.380 --> 01:07:59.850 Tom Busby: Now we go. 442 01:08:01.200 --> 01:08:17.970 Tom Busby: Everybody get signed up, we have a lot of people in this program already but join us on July 1 be our kickoff you sign up at the chat trader.com slash payday or call us at 904-416-1776 that's for the month of July 99 bucks. 443 01:08:18.990 --> 01:08:33.240 Tom Busby: And I think that I haven't had anybody, I think, just said, maybe one person, if I remember correctly, they didn't get anything out of it, but I don't think he had a computer but that's usually mean you, but the whole point is. 444 01:08:33.840 --> 01:08:39.540 Tom Busby: there's so much education so much training and groups pretty good opportunities. 445 01:08:40.020 --> 01:08:51.720 Roger Scott: it's a great opportunity folks go to DTI trader.com forward slash payday do it now or click the link in the chat you're not going to get a deal like this again T bus is going to wise and up and raise the price soon i'm telling you this is. 446 01:08:52.140 --> 01:08:53.790 Tom Busby: To keep doing this every other month the. 447 01:08:53.790 --> 01:09:03.660 Tom Busby: Price will go up i'm telling you but they've got it priced here, I like it right now, for you know for July so let's get that done and get get on board. 448 01:09:03.780 --> 01:09:09.990 Celeste Lindman: yeah get on board and Tom has already laid out the fact that July 4 is such a pivotal time in the market. 449 01:09:10.290 --> 01:09:16.050 Celeste Lindman: And you are in historical markets right now haven't had a year like this in 2022 but this guy. 450 01:09:16.260 --> 01:09:25.830 Celeste Lindman: And, combined with Jeff they got you know what about 70 years of experience in these markets and they're going to be laying things out for you you're not only going to get this payday Friday. 451 01:09:26.040 --> 01:09:31.710 Celeste Lindman: you're going to get a wealth of information, because I know those guys, just like like Roger was saying, when you go in, there you listen to them. 452 01:09:32.010 --> 01:09:38.340 Celeste Lindman: they've got it going you're going to get not only get the trades, but you're going to get their insight on how this very, very important. 453 01:09:38.580 --> 01:09:52.290 Celeste Lindman: pivotal month is playing out, so I know where I will be i'm not going to be at that 9am calm and be at payday Friday with these guys and then then i'm going to come to ask the pro so make sure that you get signed up there it's right there on the screen and. 454 01:09:52.410 --> 01:09:53.400 Tom Busby: Think about that. 455 01:09:53.460 --> 01:10:01.650 Tom Busby: Think about what we're doing July 1 we're going to put on a try three hours later we're going to be in front of you again. 456 01:10:02.340 --> 01:10:19.230 Tom Busby: Some people that take up take us up on this are gonna be smiling from ear to ear other people's I wish I could have done that you know even Buffett who has i'm not a real big fan one of his rules never won a violin you gotta seize the opportunity, but this is opportunity. 457 01:10:19.260 --> 01:10:36.060 Roger Scott: This is the opportunity folks definitely the opportunity if you can get live trading for $99 with T buzz and Jeff he there's nothing to think about their just do it seriously just do it it's time well spent, I mean you know you can't even rent a movie theater out for $99 these days. 458 01:10:36.510 --> 01:10:36.930 No. 459 01:10:38.190 --> 01:10:43.140 Tom Busby: matter of fact, speaking of that we're going to go same got a group of us towards the top gun Sunday. 460 01:10:43.200 --> 01:10:43.830 Roger Scott: that's right. 461 01:10:44.430 --> 01:11:00.510 Tom Busby: Oh no you guys saw it, but even after that we're gonna have a little celebration at the beach club have some food and all that so it's pretty exciting and we got planned for Sunday and then, of course, a July 1 it's coming up so let's get on board and be part of it. 462 01:11:01.110 --> 01:11:04.470 Roger Scott: can't wait to see a top gun Tom it's gonna be a great great weekend. 463 01:11:04.950 --> 01:11:11.670 Roger Scott: sign up folks take advantage go to DTI trader calm forward slash payday this is really a no brainer I mean seriously. 464 01:11:11.970 --> 01:11:19.980 Roger Scott: it's it's like getting in on an 80% when historic trade it's just a no brainer do it do it now and start off your weekend on the right track. 465 01:11:20.070 --> 01:11:20.910 Tom Busby: Right right. 466 01:11:21.420 --> 01:11:24.810 Tom Busby: On the Sultan of spa and the dude of crude. 467 01:11:27.120 --> 01:11:28.260 Celeste Lindman: You need to reuse that. 468 01:11:28.380 --> 01:11:32.460 Celeste Lindman: hey but you know what folks you know what I really like about what Tom said choose because you know a lot of people. 469 01:11:32.790 --> 01:11:40.740 Celeste Lindman: You know they didn't catch it maybe some of you who are listening, maybe you didn't catch this downturn, you know, maybe you're feeling a little bit down about where your account is now and Tom was saying hey. 470 01:11:40.980 --> 01:11:47.790 Celeste Lindman: This second part of the year, you get a brand new opportunity I know they're going to be laying that out there in that payday Friday as well, so. 471 01:11:48.150 --> 01:11:55.770 Celeste Lindman: I know just as Tom said, you know go there in the morning on Friday morning they come here at noon, so we can have breakfast together we have lunch together. 472 01:11:55.980 --> 01:12:01.380 Celeste Lindman: And all for $99 Where on earth can you get that for four five Fridays. 473 01:12:01.530 --> 01:12:13.620 Celeste Lindman: of the month, you know breakfast and lunch with a lot of great education but hey turn things around for yourself, you can do it they've taught me how to do it, I know they can teach you how to do it get involved and go listen to what they have to say, the link is in the chat. 474 01:12:13.950 --> 01:12:21.900 Celeste Lindman: And, as always, to we've got the recordings to a post, where you can get the recordings of the session so you can go back and listen to it, because I know there's a lot of good tidbits you know Roger later. 475 01:12:22.170 --> 01:12:31.440 Celeste Lindman: All of those rules for the trades with the idea of you in small CAP and a lot of other great information in there, so you can get that but we're glad that you all joined us. 476 01:12:32.160 --> 01:12:46.290 Tom Busby: Last bonus, we want to give him because i'm really pushing this, we have the encyclopedia of education, if you sign up for payday Friday today or have signed up, we will give you access for the month of July to our encyclopedia of trading. 477 01:12:47.820 --> 01:13:01.920 Tom Busby: I just think it's such a good thing for people to have to go to, and that gives you a good backdrop one question videos and tests and everything so it's pretty neat so you'll get that if you do sign up, though. 478 01:13:02.400 --> 01:13:13.380 Celeste Lindman: yeah well, I know that that alone has a couple other zeros behind it so that's very, very valuable what you're getting there what Tom just threw in is amazing, I know I know go get it. 479 01:13:15.330 --> 01:13:20.730 Celeste Lindman: All right, anybody else have anything to say they want to say we're good to go go sign up that's a no. 480 01:13:20.730 --> 01:13:22.230 Tom Busby: brainer joy. 481 01:13:22.470 --> 01:13:24.450 Tom Busby: yeah Roger yeah. 482 01:13:24.540 --> 01:13:26.250 Tom Busby: Jeffrey can sing us. 483 01:13:26.520 --> 01:13:27.840 Roger Scott: Barry and thanks everyone. 484 01:13:28.350 --> 01:13:36.000 Celeste Lindman: And posting in here, where you can go get the recording session for today's and so you can write down all the great information but go get that. 485 01:13:36.150 --> 01:13:45.180 Celeste Lindman: you'll get the payday Friday and let's have some phenomenal Fridays in July, what do you say i'm planning to do that, I hope you all join us so we'll see you then see you next time. 486 01:13:45.180 --> 01:13:47.370 Roger Scott: Have a great week thanks everyone bye guys. 487 01:13:47.940 --> 01:13:49.230 Roger Scott: Have a great weekend bye.
2 Comments
Hi ,
Firstly thank you all for your market insights it was very informative.
I’m fairly new to trading & recently signed up for 1 of Roger’s services & want to ask Roger if Enphase Energy is a good buy as there seem to have been some insider sell offs is it a good time for a ( Puts option ) ?
Keith, Roger won’t be able to respond here, but if you email him at [email protected], he usually answers all emails! Let us know if you need anything else!
Thanks for being an ATP viewer! You can always catch past episodes here: https://atptraders.com/blog/