Ultra Short To Long Term Trade Opportunities — September 22, 2023

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Celeste Lindman: Yeah.

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Celeste Lindman: seen a lot of you guys this week. I've been very active and really helpful to a lot of traders. And so, thanks for joining me today. Here on, ask the pros.

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Roger Scott: Here we go alright. Well, let's just jump in. We'll get started. And so yeah, everybody I was telling you before we got started that we're gonna talk about the current market, a few things maybe to talk about there. I don't know. Maybe some kind of announcement that came this week. I can't remember what it was.

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Celeste Lindman: Something with the fed all this kind of thing. Gotta talk about liquidity got Garrett here with us. Gotta talk about global markets. We got Roger here experts on all this and this whole commodity super cycle. I real. We talked about it a couple of weeks ago when Jeff Smith and Jeffrey Turnmire were here with us. I really want you to get their perspectives as well, and and and we'll talk about. We'll bring it down to some other kind of trading ideas

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Celeste Lindman: as well as we kinda go through this process. So first thing I gotta tell everybody is, hey? Guess what there's risk in the market. You can lose money. You can lose a lot of it. You gotta make sure you understand what you're trading before. You click that mouse. It's your responsibility. And we're not here making, you know, guarantees. We don't know what's really gonna happen in the future. We're just telling you how we are looking at it, and the types of tools that we use to do that to help give you that edge in the market.

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Celeste Lindman: and so hopefully, we help to keep you on the right side of the market with that as well. So, but with that let's jump in. Let's start with you, Garrett. Tell us you know what is your current view of the market and and the global markets as well.

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Garrett Baldwin: So a lot of somebody was asking me earlier about the state of banks, because you're seeing bank stocks have really kind of peeled back recently.

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Garrett Baldwin: And the problem that we have in the system today is not an issue around banks and financials. It's really built around bonds and duration risk. So what's happening today? And I think what you're seeing the market is finally reacting to is the reason the rationality that we are going to be spending 5.2 billion dollars a day as a nation

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Garrett Baldwin: every day through 2032.

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Garrett Baldwin: So that's created, that's going to create some questions for the next 12 to 18 months. And that really is the big question of who's going to fund all of this?

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Garrett Baldwin: Who's going to fund roughly? So 8 and a half trillions of dollars, in short, duration bonds that need to be rolled over. Who's gonna help finance a 2 trillion dollar deficit all while the Federal Reserve is reducing its balance sheet by another 500 billion dollars.

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Garrett Baldwin: And what you're looking at right now, this inversion, I actually don't think we're going to be in a recession the way that they define it. But it certainly is a difficult case. Study when the 10 year is trading at about 4.3 the 10 year, I think, is going to be on a slow march to around 5 to 5.2 5%,

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Garrett Baldwin: and that is going to weigh on risk assets, particularly equities. Now, at the same time, you have another element in place. Liquidity definitely bottomed out. At the end of last year central banks have been easing. I think the Fed has been doing so very quietly. And you're gonna have these kind of oscillations. For the market. I anticipate that the market is going to continue to move higher.

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Garrett Baldwin: But it's going to involve a lot of these type of choppy type of events like we saw last year, where we would have a 40 point drop on the spy in 8 or 9 days, and then it would recover, and it would move a little bit higher than where it was before and would dump again. That's gonna be the case until the Federal Reserve finally, you know, makes a decision.

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Garrett Baldwin: We're keep moving our cut, our cut expectations out. We've gone from 4 to 2. I don't think they're gonna cut next year at this point, so as far as it goes, it's just gonna be really kind of built around the the response to capital in the market what the 10 year does. And it's gonna take a little while, but I remain. I remain bullish over the very long term.

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Garrett Baldwin: and I'm looking for opportunities. If there is a sell off to start building more positions, equities is going to be your way to help manage a lot of the challenges down the road. I don't. I don't see gold or some of these other you know things like duration bonds working out at all. In fact, I'm avoiding any bond over 2 years.

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Celeste Lindman: Nice, interesting, very good, Roger, what are your thoughts about the current market and global markets? I think. Well, I think that I think China is is putting a real real big

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Roger Scott: uncertainty on everything. I think Japan is really slow to start doing what they should have been doing 20 years ago.

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and I think us is just. It's just

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Roger Scott: hoping, sitting and hoping that things would get better. And by any time I don't believe anything that Fed is saying. I think they're they're completely I

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Roger Scott: if you, if you look at what they said 6 months ago, and if you look at what they're saying right now, it's like 2 different stories, you know, it'll happen. But it's gonna happen. I mean, they're just very

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Roger Scott: They're bad poker players, you know. They really are. They're just not good at what they're doing. They don't have a good. I don't think they have a good pulse on this market. I think they're

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Roger Scott: they don't. They don't respect the amount of lag the market has to really tell us what what's going on, and I think they're they're they're mismanaging this country. That's probably the best, the best way I could put it.

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Roger Scott: They're they try to. They try to. They try to highlight every positive thing, but they keep

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Roger Scott: avoiding the pink elephant in the room, and that pink elephant in the room is.

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Roger Scott: employment is great. Okay, fine. I'll give them that for the time being. But what about everything else?

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Roger Scott: I mean, what about wholesale wholesale prices at a 14 at a 14 month high? I mean W. What happened there, I mean, did we forget to talk about that or something. It's it's so. So

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Roger Scott: it's it.

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Roger Scott: I think they're, you know. I think they're in a bad position. And instead of just saying, Hey, we made some really bad choices. Let's get people here who can really help us and get out of this. They just keep. They just keep digging themselves deeper, deeper, and deeper and deeper and deeper. And I don't think that's gonna have a happy ending. And I think the market is starting to react to it, which brings me to something interesting.

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Roger Scott: If you looked at if you looked at the stock market a year ago

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Roger Scott: and you can take over the screen if you want to, Roger, feel free. Oh, no, no, no, it's it's all good. It's all good. I think if if you looked at. If you looked at the market a year ago.

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Roger Scott: they were what raising rates at a point 7 5 clip

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Roger Scott: and the market was holding on. Okay.

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Roger Scott: Theoretically, theoretically, theoretically, we should be in a much better position right now, because, according to them, we're almost done according to the, to the, to the plot line. We're almost done, and the market can barely. And the market has got lower highs. I mean, it looks awful technically, and I'm looking at it on 6 different screens. It's looking awful technically.

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Roger Scott: So my question to them now is.

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Roger Scott: What are you? What's the next thing you're gonna do? What? How are you gonna spruce up. Earnings are not gonna be great.

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Roger Scott: The 10 year just broke down had a breakdown. I think I believe it was yesterday, or maybe the day before this week has been just a blur. So I'm not.

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Roger Scott: I'm not seeing any light at the end of the tunnel. I think that's really what I'm trying to say. I'm not seeing any anything miraculous. That's gonna drive us home now. I'm not necessarily seeing anything horrific coming down the pipeline right now, but I just don't see anything great, and I think investment bankers are too.

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Roger Scott: Ubs came out this week. They changed their price target for on the S. And P. From 4,400 to 4,600,

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Roger Scott: I mean, I mean, we're we're really going crazy here, and I think Bank of America. Don't quote me on the numbers, but something very, very similar, I mean, when I looked at him they were. They were so. II agree with Garrett, and II think there's there's.

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Roger Scott: I think, in the short term there may be some things that they could say that will get us excited, but I think in the long term

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Roger Scott: we've just crossed the trillion dollar line with credit.

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Roger Scott: I don't know about anybody else, but as long as credit card defaults continue. I don't care that the labor market's getting better. If the labor market can get as bad as as great as you want. We have amazing labor market. Yeah. And we have. And our default rates are going up.

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Roger Scott: What is that telling you that's telling you that something is wrong with the labor market.

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Roger Scott: So so again, I think that we have a fed, that's

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Roger Scott: That's on a runaway train, and they have no idea how to stop it, and they're hoping and hoping, and they're giving us the the best case scenarios. But I think deep inside, I think they know. I think they know, that this is not gonna end well.

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Garrett Baldwin: sorry. I don't mean to be so so into. But II mean, I'm just frustrated with them, you know. II think II just wanna add on something that you're saying, Roger, because I do think they know what needs to be done.

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Garrett Baldwin: But there's there's no courage to actually do it so. And the reason is, and the reason is this.

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Garrett Baldwin: if you go back to the 1970 S. And you look look at the the tenure of Artie Burns, which went from 1970 to 1978. At no point does he? Does he say what the real problem was in the 1970 S. He doesn't do it until 1979, and he doesn't do it in. In a, in a speech in the United States. He does it in a speech in Yugoslavia, 5,000 600,000 miles away from Washington, and what he says is, what did you want me to do

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Garrett Baldwin: to contain it, because we had Opec crisis we had. We had Nixon taking us off the gold standard. We had the great society that we were spending all of this money. We had all of these Cola benefits. He was pointing out that this was fiscal.

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Garrett Baldwin: and he doesn't say it a full full, but

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Garrett Baldwin: he has had and and keep in mind everything that we're doing today in the Us. Is the exact same things we were doing in the 70 s. We have great society programs. We have a $2 trillion dollar deficit. We're dealing with Opec once again.

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Garrett Baldwin: it's the same thing, and and when No. One on, No. One on the fed, no one on the fed, and none of the 200 PH. D's, who work at the fed are raising their hand in Washington, DC. And saying.

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Garrett Baldwin: Stop, run! Run! A don't run a deficit, cut the deficit, bring it to 0, and the fed could legitimately cut rates tomorrow. They could cut rates tomorrow if they balance the budget, but they're not going to do that. And why don't they do that because they want to fit in because they want to be able to get jobs at Carlyle Group after they leave the fed. That's want to run Georgetown. They want to go back and be economics, professors. They want to go to cocktail parties. That's it.

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Garrett Baldwin: I mean, they're human beings at the end of the day, and no, and and I guarantee you, PAL will eventually say what I just said, but he's going to do it 3, 4 years from now, when he's no longer sitting in that chair

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Celeste Lindman: that makes makes good sense. Well, so let me jump back to you, Roger, and tell me. You know we'll with this kind of perspective. How do you make money in this market?

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Garrett Baldwin: Well, now, let me go ahead and share my screen with you.

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Roger Scott: There's there's fantastic ways of making money in this market. Let me just

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Roger Scott: matter of fact, we, my my folks, have been doing pretty good across the board. Not on this stock, Carvana, though I'll tell you. Oh, what a stinker this has been for us!

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Roger Scott: We launched a new income program, and it just went.

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Roger Scott: I mean Murphy's law, right, anyhow. So I'm gonna I, Garrett, I'm gonna go a little. My time view right now is going to shrink from a year to about 2 weeks. Okay, so just I'm changing. I'm I'm changing speeds right now, like I'm going from like

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Roger Scott: pretty, broad, pretty, narrow. So don't confuse what I'm saying right now with what I said a few minutes ago, because we're talking on a different timetable. Okay?

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Roger Scott:  So right now, the market is sitting right now, literally right at or right below the 100 day moving average. And there's there's a huge support level here now for the next day or 2 or 3. I think this level will hold. But over the next

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Roger Scott: month and a half, 2, 3 months I'm not so confident. Home builders, Matt, what was that ticker. Ex. Yeah, here it is. Home builders broke that level.

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Roger Scott: They they broke that level, and I don't see an end in sight. If if anybody thinks that home prices are gonna go lower.

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Roger Scott: Let's let's go to Brooklyn. I got a bridge to sell you. Okay, home prices are not interest rates. I mean your your. Your mortgage may be cheaper now than it may be in the future, because interest rates are still lower than they're going to be, and they are going to go up.

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Roger Scott: That is a certainty. The question is, how much and when they'll stop, but they are going higher.

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Roger Scott: So so I mean, I think the fed pretty much confirmed that earlier this week. So I I'm I'm expecting a little more downside. So how do I view the market right now. Well, I'm viewing the market as about, and I'm talking about short term periods. I'm talking about month.

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Roger Scott: 3 weeks, 2, 3 weeks.

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Roger Scott: I'm actually cautious, cautious, and not that optimistic about the bulls. I'm actually probably

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Roger Scott: 60 40 bears versus the bulls, simply because we keep knocking at these levels. And if you keep knocking at a door eventually you're gonna hit it and you're gonna knock it out. So the good news the good news is. And this there is a silver lining. I don't think the current downside move has a lot of steam to the downside. I mean, if you see here the 200 day moving average. Even the support levels

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Roger Scott: are pretty there. And we're still in a very, very choppy environment. That may change as we get further into the fall and into the winter months. But for now, for now we are just chopping around. So my point of my view is, we have a huge huge sector sector mess right now. Sectors are completely out of whack. I mean, it's harder. It's harder to gauge what's moving and what's not moving than it is to to figure out

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Roger Scott:  What to buy, what to sell like, for example, let me just show you this is a short, this is one week, 3 weeks over the last 3 weeks, energy utilities, financial the Dow blue chips. But to day, for example.

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Roger Scott: the technology is already up here. So when markets get defensive. We know that blue chips start. People start putting their money into utilities, into into energies.

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Roger Scott: Into the financial. Believe it or not, financials have been moving up and health care and the doubt. But if the market starts coming back up they're gonna they're gonna sell that. And they're gonna be buying tech. That's what's been going up on for every rally we've had over the last 9 months.

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Roger Scott: I don't think that's wise, but that's what we've been doing

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Roger Scott: the Russells, the mid caps, the retail, the home builders, the real estate. They're not catching a bid at all. So I'm genuinely very nervous about what's going to stimulate this market.

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Roger Scott: So the way I would trade right now is, I would only trade the strongest relative strength stocks, and the weakest relative strength stocks, and I would

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Roger Scott: leave everything in in between, completely out. Because I think the markets are those stocks are going to be the most sensitive to what happens in the economy. And just to give you an idea, I have a list of stocks here. So right now, 24 week highs, 6 month highs are

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Roger Scott: coming into

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Roger Scott: oops. Excuse me.

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Roger Scott: here we go. You could see all the stocks that are breaking out, making 24 weeks high. These stocks are bucking the trend. Now, here's the thing. Most of these stocks are industrial stocks.

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Roger Scott: pipelines. There's not a lot of tech here. There's really not a lot of, if if any. I mean there's no tech sprouts farmers, market vista energy.

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Roger Scott: I mean, maybe a little consumer discretionary. People wanna sit in the comfortable chair, but for the most cboe, but for the most part not seeing any crazy, crazy, crazy moves by the fang stocks. The Fang stocks are actually not doing all that great.

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Roger Scott: So the market is in a very precarious position. Right now we're coming out of the summer. We still have to finish September. September's not a historically strong month.

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Roger Scott: The question is going to be over the next few days, and I'll I'll tell you

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Roger Scott: from a market timing perspective. I know we have some folks here who were not in the Vip room today. From a market perspective

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Roger Scott: we need to see we had a gap. We had a gap. Yesterday the gap took us right through the 100 day moving average till this gap fills, or at least halfway fills.

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Roger Scott: I'm gonna be very, very bearish. My next thing is going to be. Let me just blow this up. I don't. I don't wanna just see if we can stay up above this line. I wanna see if we can fill this gap

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Roger Scott: and and break up to the 50 day line. If we can't do that over the next 3 to 5 days. If we can't do that next week, and I think next week we'll see some some accumulation unless we really close week today. I think we're gonna see some. But more buyers come in next week. But overall this is this to me, is more of a dead cat dead cat balance than anything else, and

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Roger Scott: choppiness or downside action. The fact that we're chopping your all time highs is throwing a lot of folks off. But folks, we've been going sideways for 3 months now. We haven't seen any action from the market in 3 months, so don't get so hyper bullish because we're just not there be very defensive.

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Roger Scott: Stick to trading outliers like technology or or or blue. Don't don't go like to the middle

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Roger Scott: use sector strength wisely right now and try to trade from both sides of the markets. If you're not trading puts and calls, you're going to not get the full benefit of what we're seeing right now. Sorry, Celest. I don't mean to to to go on and on and on for hours, but that's kind of what I'm seeing right now.

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Celeste Lindman: That's what we want you to do. Go on and on and on for hours. That really helps us a lot let me move back over to you. Garrett, and 2 questions for you. One thing you mentioned kind of this quiet easing, could you? And I know you've talked a lot about the liquidity thing to us here. So I want. So I think we're a little bit familiar with how you you know the liquidity that impact on the market being, you know, bullish, bearish

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Celeste Lindman: for lack or more of liquidity. Could you tell us more about this quiet easing? And then also tell us. You know how how you are planning to, you know. Make money in the markets, you know you with your perspective. How are you planning to make money in the markets.

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Garrett Baldwin: Yeah, I mean the the thing that's the thing that was posited by Michael Howe. And he's the author of capital wars. He effectively. Ve argued recently that you know the the idea of them being bullish over the last, you know, or effectively stating that the liquidity cycle had reached its bottom in October was this idea that the the fed has effectively been secretly easing for a year. He wrote about this last last year, or about 2 weeks ago.

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Garrett Baldwin: and the reason for this is that they're effectively, quietly targeting bank reserves is how he? How he describes it. You kind of seen this that there's ample reserves roughly around 2 and a half trillion dollars right now on the lower bound. And what they're not. What they're doing is they're effectively enabling a lot of capital to, you know, operate out of the repo markets that's

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Garrett Baldwin: allowed us to.

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Garrett Baldwin: you know. See, see capital come off the sideline and move into equities, and that was one of the big things that happened. Everybody thought that the market was going to completely tank after the Treasury Department was done was done with its Treasury general account, and the market just screamed higher, and it screamed higher, largely because there was so much money sitting in repo.

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Garrett Baldwin: And the thing about liquidity is that a lot of people think that it is just limited to central bank balance sheets. It's not. There's a lot of shadow banks. There's funds. There's, you know, it's really just about all of the capital and credit that is available, and everything that can be done for the purposes of refinancing debt globally how that capital finds its way in the market. Now, Mo, now.

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Garrett Baldwin: Roger, just kind of blew my mind, saying, I'm gonna go from a 2 year outlook to a 2 week outlook. Well, Roger, I'm gonna I'm gonna really shake it up on you a little bit real quick. This is about a 2 min lookout. And so this is, this is actually, this is what I've been doing on Fridays. And you know, focusing on momentum. Momentum is negative right now.

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Garrett Baldwin: But what I'm showing you right now that blue line is volume weighted average price

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Garrett Baldwin: moderna last week was in a breakout quadrant stock. So what I'm looking for is I'm playing the rules of

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Garrett Baldwin: The third standard deviation band. So this move right here, this spread right here. That's the first standard deviation. These are the second standard deviation of price. This is the third standard deviation of price. Stanley Drucken Miller, in 2,018 pointed out that the markets do not have much of a trend because of the sheer amount of algorithmic buying

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Garrett Baldwin: that happens when stocks fall into the third standard deviation. So what I'm looking for. And this happened last Friday, and I was with a group of people, and and and we were sitting around looking for different things to trade

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Garrett Baldwin: when these stocks are in breakouts and they start to move lower, there's still a little bit of juice to be squeezed. So we waited for this to kind of get back to the first band. We went up to the 1 13 call that expired that day. It was 41 cents, and you know what happened next. So you know, this turned into 190 win for us. And that's the type of thing that I'm looking for today. This happened again with the Iwm you have this big sell off. You hit the band, and then what happens? Reversal.

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Garrett Baldwin: So we saw the 1 77 call for go from about 80 cents up to about a dollar 20 in about 15 min, and the way that the way that I advise people to trade. This I'm using trading view as this platform.

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Garrett Baldwin: The way I advise you is, look you, you're buying. And in the money call, or you can go up. You can go up once in one deviation line if you want, but keep your stops tight. Just set a 10% stop, and if it doesn't hit it doesn't hit that round. But if you miss 5 times and you hit once you're gonna make your money back and you can do it pretty quickly. So once again, you kinda seeing it just happened again.

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Garrett Baldwin: And I'm way that I advise people to look. You're gonna buy 4 contracts. You're gonna sell one here. You're gonna sell 2 here, and your stop will be back here for everything else. Now, I don't like doing this every day, but you can use the spy in the Iwm and not Qq. And it is worked. I was. I was having a conversation with someone recently, and we were in real time. He's like, no way is this, you know, an interesting strategy.

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Garrett Baldwin: And all of a sudden the spy hits this line, and then it just took off the rest of the day. And I said, You know, all you gotta do is just manage your risk. I don't like doing this because I don't like to sit and look at my screen all day. I have other things I like to do, but if you are a day trader, and you know the one of the things that you want to be paying attention to is just trading down here around these lines

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Garrett Baldwin: and looking for opportunities for these things to rebound relatively quickly, and you move on. And that's it. And the way the other thing that I advise people on this you want to do it on the hours. So when it when it comes around, 100'clock comes around. 110'clock happens around 120'clock. That's really kind of been the optimal time to do this. You can also do it around 20'clock, when institutional capital tends to come back in at the end of the day

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Roger Scott: just a different way to do. Just to add to what Garrett is saying. We use the vwap all the time and the deviations. Matt, my assistant loves the vwap most day traders use it, Cyrus, to answer your question. The reason it works is because every day trader in the world is using those lines. And they key off with those lines. So when you have every, the reason, technical analysis works is because people are using it. So you don't wanna use some weird technical tool that nobody uses. You. Wanna use something that everybody uses. 200 day moving average 100 day 50, you know, stand the big ones. And

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Roger Scott: over the last 20 years the V-wop has become a very, very popular indicator and actually works really well for intraday moves. And it's that was great what you showed that, Garrett. But we we use that as well. Very, very good tool.

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Roger Scott: I like. I like to confirm intra day moves. I like to use the 5 min chart with the view. OP. But those are all really good examples. Actually

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Celeste Lindman: excellent. Yeah, the lot that's really helpful. We're gonna try to get as many topics in as we can here today. Wanna switch over here a little bit to this this super cycle of the commodities, and if you can see my screen there now, and and, Roger, you were, I believe you were the one. That first kind of brought this even particular report from Goldman Sachs to our attention, and ask the pros. I think it was in December. It was. It was,

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Celeste Lindman: you know, early in the year at least. And and I know, you know. Garrett, you've done some things recently with this whole super cycle and energy and everything. But there's this whole, this, this whole part of this under investment. I wanna get your opinion on this. And then I wanna get your thoughts on ways that that our audience could position themselves to make money. If this is in fact true, this whole super cycle.

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Celeste Lindman: the commodity deal that that Jeff Smith and Jeffrey Turner and I started that conversation a couple of weeks ago. So there's this whole process of saying, you know, like, and regardless of, you know opinions on, you know, green energy or not, or the different types of fossil fuels, or you know, gold or silver, or whatever. That there there is this actual underinvestment where these companies did not.

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Celeste Lindman: use their Kpex capital investment capital expenditures, to invest into their plants. They did not, you know, produce more of the commodities we see that playing out, and that this is the Goldman Sachs is saying that this is this is something that's causing this to be a really under invested super cycle which could potentially make it even more super and again, as I said, you know, Garrett, I know you have mentioned some of these things, and, Roger.

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you came from commodities

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Celeste Lindman: mit Ctl and and Garrett. You have an incredible energy background economically and so forth. So let's just I was just wondering if we could kind of digest this a little bit for the people. What is this underinvestment? Is there really something to it? What does it mean? Here's a couple of graphs here. You know, showing how the commodities had been dominated by the dollar, according to Goldman Sachs and the graph that they had there, the 2,

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Celeste Lindman: the light blue line being the commodities index, the dark blue line here on the left being the dollar, and then you have the whole kpex, the capital expenditures there on the right, the right screen just showing how they, you know, really weren't investing in, you know, some of their their companies.

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Celeste Lindman: How does this? What is this super cycle? What are your thoughts on it? What are the opportunities. What should we, as an audience, do with this information.

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Roger Scott: Roger? Why don't you go first? Well, I personally think that I don't know if this is the Re. I don't. I'm not buying a hundred percent into the whole.

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Roger Scott: into the whole. The theory behind how how institutions have been dealing with it, but I do. I will tell you this. I will tell you this, that, generally speaking.

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Roger Scott: commodities when they tend to write. You know I started out in this business in the commodities market, and I love commodities. And one thing I'll tell you about commodities.

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Roger Scott: Things in the world don't happen as fast as people think they do. It takes many, many years for trends to begin. For example, I remember when I first started trading in 2,000 gold was $280 an ounce.

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Roger Scott: So so it, you know. And then it took

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Roger Scott: took a while for it to get up and then back down. So the point is this, if you look at more, if you look at the most commodity cycles, they tend to last a long, long time. They don't last 3 months, and then they they go. They go boom!

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Roger Scott: They last sometimes 5, 6, 7 years, and I think we're and we're just in the beginning stage of entering a commodity cycle. And, by the way, these commodity cycles tend to coincide with stock markets dipping, there's there's there's always a there's always a inverse correlation between commodities. And this is, this is just economics. 101. Garrett will tell you this is this is stuff I mean, this is just real simple stuff here.

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Roger Scott: but generally there's an inverse relationship, because commodities are more expensive. Interest rates get more expensive. It's harder for companies to make money higher lower profit, margin, and so forth and so forth. Consumer staples go up

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Roger Scott: real estate, real estate goes up and stocks go down. If you look historically and, Garrett, please tell me I don't remember. 7 years is the average 8 years, but I think the average is somewhere in that somewhere in that ballpark.

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Roger Scott: And somebody mentioned Stanley, drunken Miller Stanley, drunken Miller, and and Paul Tudor Jones both said, about a year and a half ago

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Roger Scott: that we're expecting. We're expecting a very choppy market on a real estate adjusted return not real estate. On a real adjusted return for stocks. We may see a flat market kind of like we saw through the 70 S. Where stocks did go up, but they were eaten up by inflation. So I think we're we're seeing the beginning, the beginning stage of that. Maybe

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Roger Scott: we're we started it about a year and a half 2 years ago. But my point is.

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Roger Scott: commodities are hot, and commodities will probably stay hot. I think energies are just beginning their move. I don't think energies are ending their move. Energies are not behaving like this is the end of their move. I think there's a lot of unknowns. I also think metals have a lot more to go.

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Roger Scott: Also, also, if

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Roger Scott: nobody's really talking a lot about this. But

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Roger Scott: this war that we're seeing between Ukraine and and and and the world we won't really know. We really will not know where we stand with our chemicals and our food supply till this war is behind us. There's a lot of

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Roger Scott: One of the reasons, I think, why Putin really wanted, Ukraine was because of that. There's a lot of there's there's the breadbasket is right there. So there! There are a lot of natural resources. That

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Roger Scott: may be in a much worse position than we expected, and we really will not know. They can't send anybody there to look at mining mine, cause they're they're fighting right now.

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Roger Scott: So I personally believe that we are in a commodity super cycle. And I believe we're going to see higher prices, and I think folks should be looking at this with a longer term trend the opposite of how Gar Gareth and I are looking at stocks right now. The ones that I like. I like metals. I like energies. I like metals, and I don't think one of the reasons why commodities, I believe, and I'd love to hear Garrett's perspective on this. But one of the reasons why commodities have been sub

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Roger Scott: subdued. If you wanna use the word, for it has been to because of the rise of the Us. Dollar. But I think the Us. Dollar, I think, with what the fed is doing, they're not gonna be able to contain the Us. Dollar for much longer, and that may cause a a real strong reaction from the commodity market. So keep an eye on the us dollar. Keep your eye on foreign policy.

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Roger Scott: And again, and and that's without even talking about China. So there's a lot of there's a lot of things right now in the world that are not clear, and when the when the world becomes very

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Roger Scott: when the world world becomes very fragmented in terms of how it's moving, how economy's moving. That's when commodities tend to rise.

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Celeste Lindman: Excellent! Great! Thank you for that, Garrett. What's your take on all this? Well, if it's so easy to understand that economics 101, Roger. I don't understand how people in DC. Can't figure it out because you explained it perfectly.

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Garrett Baldwin: You're right on. I think you're right on Russia as well. I mean, most most massive wars are commodity driven world war 2 was a big, you know, 11. Strom was the term for Russia's Russia, Germany's invasion of Poland.

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Garrett Baldwin: And

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Garrett Baldwin: you you look at this. There's a couple of different moving parts on this. So first off, oil is actually cheap right now. At 8, $90 a barrel. And people sit here and say, wait a minute. You're out of your mind and inflation adjusted. It was 156 in 2,008. Right? That's right. So it's still cheap.

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Garrett Baldwin: But there's a couple of different moving parts. One

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Garrett Baldwin: you talked about a shortage of metals. That is a serious element, right? So the United States there's there's a couple of different trends that I think are critical. We have a perfect storm of policy, supply, demand, legal capital. All of this is all coming together at the exact same time.

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Garrett Baldwin: So one thing is refining capacity. Our refining capacity continues to deteriorate. Here in the United States States there was expected to be a lot more oil refining capacity in Nigeria that collapsed this year. And Europe is supposed to bring a lot more online. So we're gonna probably see some easing in the Diesel markets at some point, because the crack spreads have been wild.

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Garrett Baldwin: But I'm still anticipating a lot of problems because most refining that is being built in the world today is happening in China, and China is not going to be sending us Diesel fuel at any given moment. So the first thing is, supply remains a a big issue, obviously with Opec in focus. But here in the United States

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Garrett Baldwin: the biggest lesson learned of the 2014 last time oil prices were up at 200, at a hundred bucks a barrel.

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Garrett Baldwin: All of the producers in Texas turned on their taps. They expanded their production, they started producing everything they possibly could. Did Roger freeze, or did I?

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Garrett Baldwin: Oh, no, he's not frozen. He's looking up. Never mind, you're not frozen either. Okay, good. Okay. I got worried. So they they. They flooded the markets and oil went from a hundred bucks down to 40,

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Garrett Baldwin: and all of the institutions were very angry about that. So then, what happened? These companies started to do everything they could to keep their investors in play, and in 2,018. This is where they started engaging in what is known as fiscal discipline. And this was really built on the backs of the CEO of Pioneer.

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Garrett Baldwin: where basically they said, we're not going to increase production. We're going to reward our shareholders. We're going to do buybacks. We're going to pay down our debt. We're going to enforce and increase our dividends. We're going to ensure that they're going to want to be good investors.

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Garrett Baldwin: And with that you're not seeing an expansion of production, a dramatic expansion of production, even with oil at $90 per barrel.

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Garrett Baldwin: we had an opportunity to fill our Spr. The strategic petroleum reserve at $20 a barrel. But it became political, as all things are. And now we're gonna have to finally fulfill it again at $80 a barrel, and that'll take years. It's a supply battle. Now, cost of capital is another issue cost of capital for new oil. Well, production was 8% back 11, 2,011. It was also 8% for solar panels.

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Garrett Baldwin: Today, oil production cost to capital is about 18 to 20%.

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Garrett Baldwin: It's 3% for solar. So that is an issue involving where people are putting their capital and how they're willing to allocate it. A lot of this has to do with Esg, but it also has to do with inflation.

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Garrett Baldwin: 20% of all. Cap X. This year was just going to keeping production where it was last year.

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Garrett Baldwin: That's going to continue to deteriorate demand is going to move to a hundred 1 million barrels per day next year

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Garrett Baldwin: 100 million. That's a huge number.

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Garrett Baldwin: And then you have the legal issues.

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Garrett Baldwin: So the current administration. But just really, Washington in general, really started to enforce things in the mid 90 s. And they've gotten more powerful over time. In addition, we have Sue and settle lawsuits. There's a there's a small lizard in the Permian basin that they want to explore, shutting down production of new per new production because of the endangered lizard.

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Garrett Baldwin: Now, all of that sounds well and good, but when you get to organ, where we may very well have the largest lithium deposit in the world. This cauldron that they've discovered not not too long ago.

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Garrett Baldwin: is they? They are effectively trying to shut it down on Sioux and settle. Already they tried to shut down Thacker Pass, which is supposed to be one of our big lithium mines over a buckweed.

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Garrett Baldwin: and it is. It is a model. It is a business model within law firms and advocacy groups to try to shut this stuff down. And it's it's not going to lead to, you know, an expansion of production anytime soon. Fact or pass is so far behind. Now keep in mind if we do drill for lithium, and we may have enough lithium, and on the border of Nevada and Oregon to produce a car battery for half of the world's population.

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Garrett Baldwin: It's going to take a lot of Diesel fuel to produce, to pull all that stuff out of the ground. And where are we going to get our Diesel from while our refining capacities are getting eaten up.

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Garrett Baldwin: I mean, it's insane. So you've got supply cost to capital legal issues and keep in mind if we do try to force. You know, these these mandates on electric vehicles.

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Garrett Baldwin: we have to increase our copper production by 4 X, we have to increase our lithium production. By 10 x we have to increase our cobalt production by 10 x we have to increase our graphite production

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Garrett Baldwin: by 18 times. We've never increased an industrial industrial metal production in 10 years

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Garrett Baldwin: by a factor of a hundred percent. So all of this stuff is going to manifest in the next couple of years. The people. These companies are not going to drill more oil.

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Garrett Baldwin: The metals and mining is going to continue to be under stress, because there's not enough supply, and I anticipate that by 202-72-0280il prices will be elevated, and we are going to be begging us companies to drill.

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Garrett Baldwin: and I think it's going to be. I think it's going to be an economic problem because we have the capacity we have the ability to drill and produce in the Permian at 35 per barrel, and it's going to fall to 15 over the next decade.

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Garrett Baldwin: So you know, II just look at it. And I say, II want to invest in oil as if oil is going to be at 75 to $80 a barrel and anything over. That is just gravy. I think copper is gonna absolutely rip at some point. I think we'll be looking at $8 copper again. But it's gonna be. It's gonna be some time and a lot. And the easing comp component of this is really critical. China's very important in this. If they keep expanding their balance sheets at more risk, more capital comes in.

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Garrett Baldwin: It's gonna move into these assets. And it's gonna be a. It's gonna be a very good time to be in this, because that's how you address the the inflation. It is the playbook from the 1,900 seventys all over again.

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Celeste Lindman: Excellent. Garrett, how are you using this knowledge to make money in these markets?

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Garrett Baldwin: So the one thing that I you know right now energy is actually, if you look at some of the stocks companies like Occidental right now, they're pulling back. They've fallen accidentals gone from like 66 down to 63. There's nothing wrong with these companies. Right oil stocks are oil is at $90 per barrel. But some of these names are selling off and people are freaking out over. They're saying, you know, if it's so bullish first off, you gotta stretch this out. You can't just look at price movement over the last 4 days at a time that a lot of people are panicking about ponds

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Garrett Baldwin: and and there's a lot of collateral issues in the market right now, you have to really stretch this out and look to the long term. So one of the things that I pay very close attention to

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Garrett Baldwin: is what executives are doing with their capital? Are they buying their stocks? So, for example, CNX. Resources, a big purchase happened yesterday this morning. We just learned that high peak. HPK. Is the ticker.

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Garrett Baldwin: That's the the CEO of the company just bought 8.6 million dollars in his in shares of his company. Warren Buffett has been buying billions, billions of dollars in Occidental.

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Garrett Baldwin: He's been going nuts with that $57 per barrel. So what am I doing?

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Garrett Baldwin: I'm selling put spreads I'm selling spreads under the CEO's.

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Garrett Baldwin: Where's he's buying? It smarts it

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Garrett Baldwin: because I if if if I if if if he likes, if he likes high high peak at 1680. I'll love it at 15 bucks.

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Garrett Baldwin: so doesn't matter what the stock does doesn't matter. If high peak goes up to 18 doesn't matter if it pulls back to 15 doesn't matter if it just stays range bound. I'm looking to generate 20 on my money on about an 80% probability of profit trade completely around what those executives are doing with their money. It's a great strategy is a great strategy, great strategy.

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Celeste Lindman: It is a great strategy. Excellent, thank you.

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Garrett Baldwin: And that is the basis for executive payouts. So executive payouts. Yeah, is do you have any information that you can share with people that you could put a link in or anything, or throw a link into the chat. Yeah, no problem. And we so we're gonna do another one tomorrow at 20'clock, so cool, so, so definitely. Stop in 20'clock and we will be live. I'll I'll walk you through

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Garrett Baldwin: basically the a lot of the things I just talked about now. But really it's it's critical that people want to understand the strategy. I'll show you how to do it tomorrow.

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Roger Scott: Excellent, Garrett, how far do you? How far do you go in terms of expiration dates?

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Garrett Baldwin: So

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Garrett Baldwin: right now I have gone out a little bit longer than I typically like to. And the reason for that is the it's just. It's September, historically, 1% down market. And you, you know what's going on in this in this situation. So you know, I've got stuff that's out to October right now around oxy. But when we get out to, you know, we get out to October, we get into November, December. I'm really gonna be looking at a minimum of

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Garrett Baldwin: 45 days or less. But I you know if we can if we do it right in momentum is positive in the energy sector. These could be 2 week trades. And we, you know the one thing about about selling puts or doing spreads.

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Garrett Baldwin: If you get a moved, if you get a 65%, if you get 65% of the of the credit back that you that you

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Garrett Baldwin: develop from that type of trade. I like to take that right away, because at that point you're just sitting here waiting a month and a half, you know, to try to make the other the other the balance of that. You don't need to do that. You can just roll that over and find another trade insider. Buying has been very, very weak over the last couple of months, so if we do get a sell off. It could be a very, very busy time. And the one last thing I'll say about insiders, if you are wondering when the bottom is going to come in this market.

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Garrett Baldwin: if you any, any, any, any particular market, this one chart that I'll show you real quick, and this is this is my favorite chart in all of finance. I think it is the most important chart

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Garrett Baldwin: in the markets. Get a picture of this, everybody I'm sending. I'm so send it right now

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Garrett Baldwin: I'm going to share it. Here we go. So this is the collective insider buying and selling

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Garrett Baldwin: over the last 18 years, and we're gonna pull the dow on this.

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Garrett Baldwin: You see this chart right here. You see these pops up here. This is the insider buying to selling ratio. This is where executives are buying lots and lots of their stock.

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Garrett Baldwin: And what are they doing here? They have called the bottom of every single crisis, dating back to 2,008. This is Lehman Brothers. This is the March 2,009 bottom. This is right after Black Monday with the with the what happened with.

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Garrett Baldwin: The debt ceiling! This is the China crisis, the liquidity crisis they had. This is the October freak out in 2018 around bonds. This is the covid bottom. This is the. And right here there's October 2022. That's the bottom of liquidity in the global cycle. We've not gotten back to that point yet. But if you pay attention to this chart and you see this thing getting up into this range.

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Garrett Baldwin: you buy everything you possibly can, anything that's not nailed down you are. You are loading up on it because all the collective psychology of executives around the S. And P. 500 are all buying at the same time. And I will tell you this, they're a lot smarter than me, and they've consistently done that.

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Celeste Lindman: Yeah, excellent, great. Well, lot of me and potatoes today. Right? Everybody. Thanks, Garrett, thanks, Roger, for that just wealth and knowledge that you both have shared with us today. I'm gonna take over the screen here one more time. I'm gonna share a few things with you. Yeah, you can get a recording of this whole thing. So that you can get that chart, Linda, you'll wanna see it. You wanna go back over this whole recording and get all that was a lot of great information. That was a great chart.

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Celeste Lindman: Love that

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Celeste Lindman: Garrett. So well, anyway, II was gonna come on here and share a few things what I've been doing in the background. Some of you have participated in this hard right edge that I come up with every month. I do it usually. On the third day of the month. And I'm basically projecting what I think is gonna happen. And so I had my projection for September. I actually did it on set on August 30 first, and then updated it a few days later.

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Celeste Lindman: Once we could get into the market. So I wanted to show you kinda what we saw there. But of course, you know there's risk in the market, and you all need to understand, whatever it is that you're trading before you ever click that mouse. Because your your capital is at risk, and we're just kinda showing you some ideas. And so that's what I am doing here. But what I did, what I said what I said in the the last day of August, and then updated the first few days of September, I said, Hey.

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Celeste Lindman: you know, I think the market is going to pull down. Here's my hard right edge.

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Celeste Lindman: What do they say, I'll cut to the punch. I nailed it. Okay, cut to the punch so you might wanna listen. Ii said, Hey, I think the market is gonna come down and and we're gonna either have this kind of bottoming out, either at Cpi time or at Fed time. And I put this blue line, this this vertical line there to show that that's really the fed day. That's where I really think we're gonna have that real a lot of action right there, and came down to this bottom. So let me just show you kind of what happened.

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Celeste Lindman: Oops, I guess. I said those were the dates. I said I was just showing you that, hey? I said on September twentieth, that's going to be a really big day. This is what I did on the the last day of August, I said, Cpi, you know. Watch out, I said, watch out for triple witching day. Blah blah but this is what happened. It's exactly what I projected would happen. Okay? And I've I've said here this this fed day. This is what we saw, and I kinda gave some of those projections

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Celeste Lindman: from that, and I said that the reason I do this is to just give myself an edge, so that I'm I'm not feeling anxious in any kind of market, especially with the ones that are pulling back, and that I can just keep my head about me and trading because I'm here to make money. That's the only reason I'm here. And so this helps me do that. And so I shared it with a lot of people, and they felt like it helped them as well. So well, I've talked to my publisher, and

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Celeste Lindman: they have finally convinced me to give to you something I have worked on since 2,012. This is something that is really giving me an edge. People have asked me for this. Well, it's coming out next week, and it's called dark money trade. So I want to invite everybody to be there. I believe. Tuesday and Wednesday of next week you'll get emails. You'll get notification. You even are going to get the opportunity to register for it here today

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Celeste Lindman: that basically I'm just gonna kinda show you where I kinda enter in is is easy as this. Now, there's more that goes into all of this than just that. Okay, but you enter. I enter here. When I get this green arrow I exit here at this Red Arrow. And these are some amazing trades. I'm gonna explain it to you, and I hope you listen because it keeps me away from the computer.

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Celeste Lindman: Lets me live a lot of life. I like to live a lot of life. I don't like to look at a computer. So here's a trade that in 2 months time 116% gain. I know that's not super exciting on Pepsi, but you're holding this for a long term. But what I really want you to see are some other trades, Eli Lilly, 388% there in 3 months, and I don't know if you remember. But you know I came on, I've I've talked so often about Lily, but it's using.

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Celeste Lindman: It's using this process, this dark money process that led me to Lily and as well as some other trades as well. And I wanna share that with you. Honeywell, I just. I came out last several several weeks, and I've been talking about Honeywell for those of you who are in the true trend pro when I did that master class not too long ago, I said, Hey, keep your eyes on Honeywell, because

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Celeste Lindman: what we noticed is that when that true trend pro kinda sets up it wasn't exactly on Honeywell. It wasn't the perfect setup, but it had some characteristics that we look at very specifically for true trend. Pro, I said, what we've noticed is that that this kind of process and true trend pro kinda

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Celeste Lindman: is is a precursor to what's about to happen. And sure enough, a few days later some other things triggered in my dark money policy that showed the way to this whole, this whole gain right here in Honeywell, this whole entire lift up in Honeywell, while the rest of the market in September was going.

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Celeste Lindman: Honeywell was going up. It was great, and so I just put out in a newsletter today, I said, Hey, watch now for stocks to put in these higher swing lows, and I put that in, you know. Bottom right there, I said, hey, this look! I don't know if it's gonna happen or not, but watch and see if it does, because there's some things this is not necessarily what this is not what I'm trying to talk about with dark money. But I certainly look at this, but there's some something about Honeywell

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Celeste Lindman: that I think you need to pay attention to, and that's the seasonality so not only did it populate for my dark money, but it also has some really awesome seasonality. I think you should pay attention if you like to make money. I know it's not a real, flashy, exciting stock. But if you like to make money, maybe there's an opportunity for you. I don't know but this has a seasonality. You can just look at the months, you know. You got October, November, December.

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Celeste Lindman: Here, on the left side of the screen. Those are some pretty solid months, even into the beginning of next year. So and you see that pull back in August and September. And then you see all of these different types, types types of trade setups here in the middle of the screen. This is on a 20 day trades. You can take a picture of this, and maybe this will help you out. Just some probabilities just based on seasonality. Nothing else.

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Celeste Lindman: No technicals, no fundamentals, no tape reading anything just seasonality. It's a it's a pretty cool thing. You can look at the 30 days all the way over to the other. The end of the of the slide there on the right. A whole bunch of setups here October. Just look at all of those in October.

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Celeste Lindman: I'd say it's a pretty strong pretty strong opportunity. So also I don't know if you remember back back in October or November timeframe, I'm like, Hey, General Electric, and it's like man. Everybody thought it was the stinkiest stock, and it was a stinky stock. I can understand why everybody thought that. I mean, you know all everything, you know, being kicked off the dow. Just a lot of trouble really mismanaged.

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Celeste Lindman: Well, what people didn't understand about General Electric is that, you know, had a brand new CEO for multiple years, who had a history, a seasonality, if you will, of success. And what people didn't understand is that it was not about electricity. It wasn't General Electric, but it was an industrial and in healthcare and a green energy type stock. They didn't understand that. And so I came in and say, hey, this is a value stock. And then there's that that insiders Garrett was talking about. Yeah, I like the insiders that are buying that, too.

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Celeste Lindman: But the key, too, that really flipped my switch was this whole thing of professional accumulation. And I loved what Garrett was saying, too, you know. Hey? You know the insiders, and you showed that really great chart of how, when the insiders are buying and how they can really pick, you know, bottoms of the market. Well, you know, when we don't have all of that, we've got these professionals that are accumulating, and they're doing it for funds. They're doing

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Celeste Lindman: doing it for a variety of things and being able to piggyback on some of that is really really key. It's complicated, though, but what I learned back in 2,012. This whole process really bridged a gap for me, and it's what allowed me to step away from the computer. Not have to look at it, but get into some longer term trends, whether they lasted for a month or 2 months or 6 months, and be able to make multiple trades off of that same

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Celeste Lindman: trend like Eli Lilly Stock, or or Honeywell, or General Electric, and really kind of get in at the bottom. Get in before some of the biggest moves in the stock were taking place. So I'd like to invite you off. You're interested, you know. They're gonna post a link there in the chat that you can go and get registered for this event. That. I'm on hold next week, and I'm pretty excited about it. It's it bridges the gap between a long

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Celeste Lindman: investor and the day trader. You know, real short-term swing trader. It's a beautiful gap, and there's a lot of insight that comes to trading this style that I'm going to show you all about next week. So

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Celeste Lindman: thanks, Roger as well.

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Celeste Lindman: So yeah, thanks for that cirrus. Had that prediction, so we'll there'll be more, and I've got some stock ideas for you next week coming with that dark money traits. So

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Celeste Lindman: follow along.

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Roger Scott: Well, thank you. Alright, hey, Roger, have a great weekend. Thanks for joining us, everybody. Thank you for joining us. Make sure you check in with Garrett tomorrow at 20'clock when he brings that energy kind of cycle to you. It's very it's I listened in on that was fantastic. And yeah, Garrett knows his stuff. He really does. I think he's a really good asset to to the whole pub organization. Have a great weekend, everyone, and you as well, Celeste.

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Roger Scott: Bye, everyone bye, Cyrus. Bye, Dave, bye, guys, thank you. Guys, bye, if you need to email me, Roger, at Roger Scott, com, bye.