Shades Of 2008’s Financial Crisis As Silicon Valley Bank Goes Up In Smoke — March 10, 2023

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Let's get this show on the road

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Celeste Lindman: right well. The week has been very volatile, right? Not very quiet at all with Jerome Powell on Capitol Hill. We've had news of Silvergate. We now have the news of Silicon Valley Bank, and, thanks to Shawn, he just typed in saying that the Regulators are shutting them down.

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Celeste Lindman: Oh, we got a lot to talk about, and to do that. I'm so glad we have Jeff Smith with us. You're familiar with him. Jack Carter, you're familiar with him. and we are so glad to have Scott Welsh with us. Scott came and joined us last week on ask the pros premium Weren't you all glad that you weren't? Asked the pros premium. He has a very fresh perspective. He has a tremendous amount of knowledge, an amazing background. He, Scott, I was looking on your website. I noticed that you were. What was it? Let me get to it. I had it up here.

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Celeste Lindman: The World Cup 2,020 World Cup champion of 4 X traders. You were Number 2. That's huge.

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Scott Welsh: that is huge. Well, thank you. Thank you. Yeah, it's just noticing that that is really cool. I did not know that about you, but because you trade for actually trade stocks, you trade options, equities, everything kind of like, you know. Whatever moves you're trading, and you have a lot of knowledge on that. So thanks for joining us. Sure, absolutely.

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Celeste Lindman: You're gonna want to get to know Scott, Welsh. And so we're gonna hear about. You know everything going on with him as well. So well, first of all, guys, let's get started with just these little things going on in the market with all of this news. You know it's kind of starting to feel like sound like.

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Celeste Lindman: Maybe it has been feeling and sounding like 2,008, 2,009. Are we repeating that what should traders and investors be thinking right now, and let's get started with you, Jeff.

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Geof Smith: Well, I mean I kinda caught that news which really doesn't really surprise me. I mean, you think about you know, banks themselves. They always have to put money into, you know. Treasury bonds, Treasury. No notes and stuff like that, and they're holding on to them for a longer period of time. You get into it a couple of years ago

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Geof Smith: with the No. I don't know what 5 or 10 year yield

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Geof Smith: bonds have been taken off, so their value of that bond is just getting crushed. One thing I thought was kind of interesting

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Geof Smith: is

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Geof Smith: that people are still trying to be venture capitalist out in California, which I don't know how that's working taxes and everything. But but but people have been drawing on. Those banks have been drawn on every bank just because of inflation. They've got to take more money out there. No pay for what they got, and I've been wondering if that's going to be kind of an ongoing thing, and I thought it was very kind of interesting that

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Geof Smith: she looked at earlier this week, like on Monday or Tuesday. But there's actually a the cme has a fed tool. I don't know if anybody's ever seen that or not.

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Geof Smith: Now let me just show it to you real quick. It's kind of a neat little thing. Where is that thing? Here we go.

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Geof Smith: If you go to the Cme site, you can just go to this little search thing and just type in C Me fed tool, and it's actually adjusting quite a bit today. Let me just share my screen real quickly.

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Geof Smith: so you can kind of see it

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Geof Smith: Here it is. This is all based off of the the bond futures and options.

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Geof Smith: This morning before the non-form payroll. The left side here is basically for a quarter point. Rise. The right side is for a half point. Rise

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Geof Smith: This was at 79 this morning, and this was down at about 23. Now we're at 47 52 so they're now shifting today to where we were at the beginning of the week, this was up around 68, 69% at the beginning of the week on the half point. So they're going to be going back basically for the half point, which, if they do that's going to no sell bonds off some more, just because no, the interest

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Geof Smith: has no gone up higher.

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Geof Smith: which, if you're still holding Bonders going to be losing that much more money, and that's why they were starting to bail to things out. They lost what was 1.8 billionjust kind of selling out. But if they would have noticed that no, basically a year ago they could have saved a ton of money. But these people don't trade like we do. They just know or blind, and they just kind of throw stuff wherever they're going to do it.

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Geof Smith: But it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see more of that now, the question is, will the fed allow him to do it? I mean the fed saved the banks back in no way to a 9. Right? No! Here's a lifeline. Are they going to do that again? And that's the question that you have to kind of scratch your head on is well, they don't want banks going under. So what are they going to do with these guys? And I think this is just coming to

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Geof Smith: the start of a little trickle. I don't know how bad it will get. I think there's some out there that a little smarter than these guys. I mean I mean more than anything. I think they're more in tune to the victor, you know. Venture capitalists that are out there as opposed to just being a normal bank that I can go and do my little debit card and write a check off on bank account and all the retail people. I think this is more, you know, tuned into.

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Geof Smith: You know, the start up of basically tech companies

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Geof Smith: kind of what I gathered. Interesting: yeah, Good perspective. Thanks for that, Jack, what are your thoughts? What should traders and investors be thinking right now?

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Geof Smith: Not to worry about little banks that don't know how to manage themselves.

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Jack Carter: and not to not to pull down the entire banking sector. Because of that. You know. They that bank has the same problem any other bank has you? You know you're buying. or you did buy a bunch of bonds that are are not worth what they were, because rates have gone up. So

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Jack Carter: you know. Now you gotta liquidate that to to make good.

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Jack Carter: It's the old bank default story, but I I I see the gotta be more than one bank in that same position. But again, you know that kind of stuff that's that's kind of the noise that I try to avoid, because that distracts me from trying to stay focused on what I'm focused on.

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Jack Carter: and that's just how to how to, you know. Make money in any kind of market condition, so that bank has nothing to do with how traders should look at it. They should just look at what kind of short term opportunities

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Jack Carter: do I see here, and how how long will I see the same kind of short term opportunities? So I see the market still weak, choppy, and go and lower, and i'm using strategies that that fit that profile?

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Jack Carter: Excellent! Great! So so what's the key way to keep the noise out of the market, Jack? What do you do to to like not pay attention to headlines.

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Jack Carter: so I I might look at headlines to see if there's a stock in the headlines, but I got adult. Add, i'm not reading all these long stories by guys that don't even know what they're talking about. So

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Jack Carter: I look at the chart that's I start off with a chart of the 6 month chart of the S. And P. 500 by looking at Spy.

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Jack Carter: and I look at that in a 6 month chart, and even without technical analysis you can kind of see is the market trending side way, slower or not trending at all. And then you could add whatever kind of technical analysis. You want to get a a clear view. But

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Jack Carter: that's what I do. I let that. Tell me

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Jack Carter: what what's going on.

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Celeste Lindman: Excellent! Great, input, great thanks for that. All right. Well, Scott, what? What? What are your thoughts, you know, thinking about everything that's happened this week. What's going on next week? You know news coming out. How should traders and investors be thinking right now?

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Scott Welsh: Well, I think the with the news today. I think it's the old Warren buffet line, you know, when you learn with who's not wearing swim trucks when the tide goes out, you know, and and I think people are scared to death. I think some people actually do remember 2,008, and how completely scary that was, and I think they're scared of is this, that

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Scott Welsh: But I. I'll tell you a story, and this is true. I just a coincidence, but I have a friend slash client. I was speaking to him earlier today before the market opened, and he asked me not to say his name, but he was at the very top of a very, very famous that you've heard of venture capitalist.

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Scott Welsh: but for capital company, and back in the day he actually got called in. He is a big dog. He got called in to Silicon Valley Bank. This was a few years ago. They got called in, and he was. He met with him, and he's like he was completely impressed. He was. They were fundamentally sound. They seem like good people. They didn't seem reckless. They didn't seem crazy.

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Scott Welsh: and this is a few years ago they said that was also one CEO ago.

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Scott Welsh: And now the problem is that first of all he was completely surprised at this. All happened like this was not necessarily easy to see. But he said somewhere along the line between when he actually met with them. And now they started taking big bets on really risky things, and obviously it's causing some trouble.

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Scott Welsh: And he said, this is before the market open. He said that there was a problem with bailing them out because they they they're in start to the tech startups. So there are things that other people, other big banks

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Scott Welsh: don't know what they're doing. Don't know. Don't know how to evaluate them. Don't really understand what Silicon Valley Bank has been doing.

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Scott Welsh: and his actual quote was, Besides, the surprise was, this is another Lehman.

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Scott Welsh: and the you know. He said this before the market. I me for all this happen.

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Scott Welsh: and I think there's an overall. So okay, if You' in Silicon Valley Bank, you know, sell their stock. But what can traders take from that? Well.

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Scott Welsh: there are really 2 ways to go about trading, and Jack said it very very well, and that is, you can take your shot. Try to go a risky try to yellow it.

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Scott Welsh: which maybe is what Silicon Valley Bank did. They started re putting too much money, and all these startups that are totally hidden, Miss, right? Maybe one out of 10 work

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Scott Welsh: as traders. We can do that, too, or we could do something a lot calmer. We could do something a lot safer and surprisingly enough. You don't have to take these risks. You can look at charts, and you can look at things that actually won't go to 0,

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Scott Welsh: and an everyday trader can do actually pretty well. So

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Scott Welsh: he thought that they were done. I think they might be done. But we, as traders, don't have to be done, and we don't have to take these risks unless you know we want to, of course.

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Celeste Lindman: Very interesting. Oh, very interesting. Thanks for sharing all those comments. Everybody very powerful. Well, let's just keep it going. Let's find out, you know. Let's ask. I want to keep going with you, Scott, because you have some great perspectives. You were a guest last week on as the pros premium. A lot of people were super glad that they were there, and so, but I know that you're getting a lot of questions about Well, and then after this week, too.

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Celeste Lindman: When is this bear market over? So how are you answering that question? When is this fair market going to be over?

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Scott Welsh: I'm trying to share my screen. Can you see it? I? Can you see that it looks great? Okay? Well, you know what Jack said was just music to my ears, because I feel exactly the same way. It's so hard to trade to find. Train on headlines is so hard to run around. What's the latest? What's the best?

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Scott Welsh: It's much much easier to look at charts, and it's also much easier just to calm down and take it out to a weekly chart, or even a monthly chart like we've talked about last week. But what are we gonna do right now? Well, it's a chart of the spy, Jack said the same thing.

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Scott Welsh: and this is the famous 30 period simple, moving average. And where are we at right?

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Scott Welsh: First of all, we had a nice little run here, but those days are clearly over, and now we were breaking above. I was bullish even 24 h ago on the spy mildly bullish the bullish. But obviously now it's come down right to the 30,

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Scott Welsh: so i'm very neutral bearish.

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Scott Welsh: and I think if we can get back above the 30,

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Scott Welsh: and I drew a little trend line here we might be ready for another run.

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Scott Welsh: but right now we could be headed down. So what do you do? Well, if you have, if you need to trade. You need to trade.

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Scott Welsh: Probably gonna have to figure out a way to get it short. Maybe a drop below the 30, a retest, and then a drop.

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Scott Welsh: or we could just be calm. We'll let this play out if it if we're in for another drop like grit. Jeremy Grantham and Michael berry. Say them fine to sit on the sidelines and wait for this.

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Scott Welsh: but I overall

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Scott Welsh: never been more excited about what's going to happen. There could be some real problems coming up soon. So i'm. I'm nothing right now optimistic, but I i'm i'm not looking to set up a bunch of bullish trades, or even very phrase right now.

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Celeste Lindman: Excellent! Well, that's those are great thoughts, very helpful. And so you know it's good. It is kind of this timeframe like right now. It's kind of the blood in the streets, you know. Some repetitive behaviors going on that we're seeing we, we.

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Celeste Lindman: we we don't think the whole world is gonna fail. You know it. There's there's just some perspectives. And so, having that supported hope or supported, you know, concrete evidence of what could happen in the future. So let's just think about that, you know, when it becomes bullish. If it becomes bullish, I mean, we think someday it will right. So if it if it's bullish, or when it becomes bullish.

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Celeste Lindman: Scott, what are your perspective? What kind of trades would people look for?

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Scott Welsh: Well, and that goes back to a little bit of what I talked about before you could go hunting right to headline hunting and try to fit Well, what's next? Is it AI? I mean what's, what's it going to be?

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Scott Welsh: Or you could just stay calm. And I think people vastly underestimate, calm and patient, and not frenetic. I think people Don't realize how well you can do just by not doing much of anything at all. And here's an example. Okay, this is back 2,020,

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Scott Welsh: when obviously the world was ending.

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Scott Welsh: There are in 2020. Can you see me? You can still see me right in 2020.

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Scott Welsh: It's so much as happening.

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Scott Welsh: but we could have very simply just gone to an Etf. Now, an ets not going to go to 0. It's not, maybe going to make a 1 million. but it's also not going to 0, because if a company goes to 0, then the Et up just rotates it out, and he, this is very interesting at least to me. It opened my eyes in 2,020, and all this bullishness here's clicks

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Scott Welsh: which is just online. Retail they short stores, and they go long online, retail your Alibaba Amazon so forth. Just a break above the 30, that same 30 on a weekly chart

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Scott Welsh: and a, and getting out on a close blow to 30. That's 60% or more in 2020, right? And that's an Etf, and you would just done nothing. Look at all these weeks you would have just done nothing.

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Scott Welsh: Ln: Same thing online, another Etf. And reason, I say online because that's gonna move hopefully, right in something like these are all the risky companies

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Scott Welsh: again. 68% All you gotta do is buy when it gets above all, you gotta do is sell 68% in a year Ish.

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Scott Welsh: and both of those did better than Amazon. You know Amazon, the best, the best stock we could have traded with 1,998 right overall as far as percent game. Some people say Amazon

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Scott Welsh: using the same methodology was only 30

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Scott Welsh: amazon while not risky, but it's an individual stock. We wouldn't have had to even look for anything

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Scott Welsh: we could have just gone to an Etf, and there are there are 10 that I tracked, Etf, that all did better than Amazon.

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Scott Welsh: whether it's from using a system, or just from low to high.

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Scott Welsh: all, all 10 did better than Amazon in 2,020. So going forward. Oh, it's stocks like Etf. Sorry it

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Scott Welsh: there below online is gonna go up again right? It's not dead. This is very typical stage, one to stage 4.

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Scott Welsh: It's below. Now all we have to do is wait.

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Scott Welsh: and for click same thing. It's below the 30. All we'd have to do is wait. So i'm super excited about this part. I just don't know what's gonna happen tomorrow the next day.

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Celeste Lindman: Yeah. Well, good old saying from Jesse Livermore. Right? I made more money sitting on my hands and waiting than any other process. And you're just pushing it out there right there. Are there any other etf that you that you like, or that you're waiting on, or that you kind of have your eye on.

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Scott Welsh: Well, you want to go. Controversial arc is the exactly the same thing. A. R. Kk: it's absolutely. I mean, people are zeal. It's about it, and people are very for very against very for the person who runs in and very against. But it was just a monster in 2,020,

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Scott Welsh: and it's been an absolute disaster since then, but it's also below, and there are a bunch of arc spin offs like arkw, or whatever I

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Scott Welsh: you can look them up. But arc is another one, and it's very famous. And honestly, if you wanted to trade something like Amazon, Amazon is also below, and Tesla is both also below. Something big is coming, and you can do with a. You can do it with an Etf.

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Scott Welsh: Such as arc. I spy Qqqq. Tq. All of those now you saw the spy, but Qq. Q. And T. Qqq. Which is the Turbocharge Threex.

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Scott Welsh: Both of those did fantastic in the Bull market, and have just been doing nothing since.

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Scott Welsh: Meet any of those or a basket of those 5, potentially at least according to charts, could do extraordinarily well.

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Celeste Lindman: Yeah, excellent. Well. And I know that you know, from having you on. Ask the Pros premium last week, and you know, talking about ways to see, you know just kind of that, that calmness in the market, and really waiting for that opportunity to just kind of prey upon it. But you did something

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Celeste Lindman: really significant this week. I heard about it, and here you were. You know you were bullish, but you were able to flip on a dime, too. On you were bullish on certain things, certain ways that you were looking at, but I heard that you had a really good trade in Jp. Morgan. You want to tell us about it

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Scott Welsh: what you make me look bad, so I gotta go. Sorry. I think someone's calling me, I guess. Oh, there you Gotcha! Yes, I also I I was. I was born as a counter trend trader, even though I've since converted. I'm very hardcore trend follower, I I love trial following trends, which is what charts have been showing.

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Scott Welsh: But there are counter trend trades. I mean the stock market is contrary. You can be a contrarian and do very well right, Warren Buffett. I think I've I've heard of him.

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Scott Welsh: But there were. Jpm. Divergence is a great way, and it's discretionary. You know the one that i'm showing you here. This is the automated strategy. I'll be the simple one. And Jpm. Set up it. It was divergent. It also the Rs. A long term. Rsi was pointing down, and we saw Barrett action.

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Scott Welsh: And if you're very, very patient with counter-rend trades, because you know, Heaven knows you can get in and they get stopped out and get in. But Jpm. Was just looking terrible. It was very divergent. The indicator flashed on a longer term chart

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Scott Welsh: chart was red and bought a put, and it happened to work out, and if I had held it to today i'd be a lot happier. But yeah, i'm, i'm willing, if it's obvious. And it really sets up while i'm waiting, and if a bunch of indicators and I go get into it slowly, and Don't rushed into anything

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Celeste Lindman: i'm very willing to trade against my optimism, and and take some various phrase that's not a problem for me. Excellent, good, good, good. Well, great. Well, there you got it, you know, just being able to be diverse in strategies, and being able to long and short. Having that conversation in Jack Carter we got. We got a Love Scott because he's a fellow Midwestern are born

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Celeste Lindman: trader from Ohio.

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Jack Carter: So I considering the end of my home, too. So there you go.

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Celeste Lindman: So all right. Well, let's let's switch topics a little bit. Let's kind of refresh our brains a little bit, but keep the kind of controversy going, because, Jeff Smith.

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Celeste Lindman: you know I've been hearing about this commodity super cycle. We've heard a little bit about it here, even on. Ask the pros and some of the other programs that we have, that you know. I want to know more from your perspective, because in December, Goldman Sachs they wrote up, They've got this, you know the setup for the the most commodities next year is more bullish than it has been at any point since we highlighted the super cycle in October of 2,020. That's Goldman Sachs words.

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Celeste Lindman: and in fact, they said, they said in December that we believe it can return 43% in 2,023, and so that's a basket of commodities, various ones. You can Google it. But you know, Jeff Smith, what are your thoughts on this? You know commodity super cycle?

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Geof Smith: Well, you can get free drugs in San Francisco my understanding. So

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Geof Smith: first of all, you gotta understand what a commodity super cycle is. You hear this and people go. What the heck is that? Well, unless you're no 120 years old, you probably have no idea what it is.

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Geof Smith: Basically, they're very, very large

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Geof Smith: economic stimuli. I'll put it that way. You go back into the early 19 hundreds. We have the basically, the you know, industrialization of the United States. I mean. We are just no booming, and off we were going

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Geof Smith: when we came after World War 2. We had the industrialization of Europe and Japan. We were rebuilding them. We had tons of infrastructure to do. There was just, I mean, they needed all the manufacturing in the world to kind of help them out.

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Geof Smith: You've even seen that with even China as much as people want to agree or disagree with it, You have basically the industrialization of China. They were, you know, really a third world country back in the sixties and seventies. And all of a sudden they had a brain cell. Go off and said, hey, we can make something out of capitalism. And they started doing all this manufacturing. And again you have that exact same thing happening.

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Geof Smith: We go to the brilliance of Goldman Sachs, and whoever it is, and it wasn't industrialization, the Government shut us down there.

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Geof Smith: I mean, we were booming just fine, and the until the governments went. Click!

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Geof Smith: Don't, go out of your house.

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Geof Smith: That's not industrialization. That's the government. Shut down. We still have the infrastructure. We still had everything there. The problem was is getting. Everybody used to getting back outside and get out, and then out of the house and get in the truck and start hauling something.

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Geof Smith: And that's where I mean this commodity super cycle brain cell went off, and it's really not it's. It's just a recovery from. They are killing every economy that they can in this pandemic, and now we're trying to get back out of it. We're crawling back out of it. We're still trying to call back out of it

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Geof Smith: right. Now you've seen a huge run, I mean you saw Scott's chart, I mean. You can buy you could close your eyes like back in 98, 99, 2,000. Throw a dart at a newspaper, pick a stock. You would have made money on it in 2,000, I mean. It was very, very difficult not to, just because everything had bottomed out so bad.

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Geof Smith: and the the problem that they ran into. And we talked about this a year and a half ago and asked the pros. They've dumped so much money in the economy that Well, you're gonna have inflation, and we were yelling inflation inflation. Even Roger and I were even no telling each other. Yeah, it's common is coming. And finally it did.

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Geof Smith: And you've seen the inflated prices and a lot of the commodities because of that there.

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Geof Smith: but I mean and and flat out. If you go from 20 to to the end of 2,022 crude oil was up. 300. There you go, of course. Now remember, it was down, you know 20 bucks here right now. We're up to 100. There we are.

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Geof Smith: You had natural gas move 163. You had corn and wheat and soybeans move 70 72, I mean everything just jumped up real Well, you come into now, where all of a sudden everybody's like

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Geof Smith: too late, just like No. When are we in a recession we will know that in no 8 months. So now, all of a sudden they're all on top of this, and it's not that at all. I mean, we have a lot of the the grains the I mean crude down, I mean. I guess it's really up about 5 or 6, but it's pretty much break even right now.

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Geof Smith: I mean You've got a lot of the I mean goals down 14, I mean. There's a lot of things that we're smoking that are just like flat to down a little bit, or maybe they're up a little bit, and I think going back to

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Geof Smith: my 2 colleagues here, don't worry about what they're saying. I mean. I think you've got to sit there and tell me you think about any organic commodity there is, and I say organic, because it includes no pigs and cows and chickens, and no grains, and whatever else it is.

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Geof Smith: all that organic stuff is going to be affected by weather somehow.

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Geof Smith: I mean flat out we've had droughts up in the knowing the planes and everything like this that's killed a lot of the herds out of the cattle. I've talked about this a 1 million times. You seen no feed or cattle go from. You know a dollar 35 a pound to 2 bucks a pound right. Now it's just shy of that right now.

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Geof Smith: Not a dollar 98 you've had live count will do the same thing. It's gone from about a dollar $10 15 a pound for up at a dollar 65 a pound. Lean hogs were down at No.

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Geof Smith: no, 50, 40, 50 cents we're up at no 75 80 cents now I mean they've everything's kind of jumped up on the inflation side of things, and because of the herds gotten hit I mean you had the you know, the swine flu that kind of ate a bunch of them up. You had a bunch of chickens just die from the avian bird flu you trying to figure out why eggs were so expensive. Well, they didn't have chickens delay eggs. The so they got to come from somewhere, so but that that's the thing is now that they're getting their little

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Geof Smith: chicks back and getting some chickens going and got. But it takes a while to build a cattle herd, and the problem that they're running into right now with the cattle. I mean you're going to see higher beef prices going into the summer. I hate to tell everybody that we are. They don't have, I mean. Usually when you go put something into the feed lots.

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Geof Smith: They're between the 7, 50 to £1050 range. Now They're putting them in at n055-60-£0650, but takes a lot of corn to get a cow over, you know. You can't do it in 2 or 3 months to get 200 £300 on a cow right? You gotta give them 6 months. I mean you got to eat a lot.

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Geof Smith: and and with the price of corn up as much as it is. Well, it is more, you know.

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Geof Smith: hey? I guess, just because the only things are so expensive. So you you run into that all over the world everywhere, and I think you have to just take it season by season.

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Geof Smith: day by day, pull up a

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Geof Smith: weekly chart, pull up a daily chart, and see what the trend is. If it's trending down, Don't, go buying it? Are we going to go at 40? I mean think about 43% and soybeans

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Geof Smith: I mean soybeans are a 1502.

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Geof Smith: Really, I like to see 43% soybeans that 15 bucks. I don't think it's going to happen but it wouldn't surprise me unless we have no weather problems, especially down right now we're looking at Brazil and Argentina just because we're coming into their harvest season.

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Geof Smith: As we're here in our little planting season, we're coming into their harvest season. Once we get into June, July, we'll be seeing what you know Their crops are like, and if they've had the same weather they've had the past couple of years they've had in, especially in the southern region of Brazil. They've had some pretty nasty, no dry weather.

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Geof Smith: and they have to send a lot of the you know the corn that they have, and the feed, or just in the no ethanols, or whatever it is, it's because it's not good enough to eat, so it's going to be very, very interesting just to see how the year pans out as far as weather. So what's the weather? And I think everybody does that. I don't believe whether Ben I don't either.

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Geof Smith: I mean, they have a really hard time just telling you what's gonna happen tomorrow. I mean we haven't had any chance or rain this whole week, and it's rained every day. I like that. And today we're supposed to have some bad storms, and they hadn't done anything, so they've hit it perfectly. 100% wrong this week.

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Geof Smith: But I mean, but if you look at the longer term outlook, and that's what they do. They can see bigger weather patterns, and they can see, you know, drier spells or warmer spells and stuff like that, and they are pretty decent with that. And I mean, you look at you know, basically I 70? No. Across the United States you go north of I 70.

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Geof Smith: You're either in snow or it's freezing to death. You go south of I 70. You're on the beach, having a little brother drinks, and I mean that's just the way it is right now. So, but I think overall the the commodity super cycle. This is not a super cycle, not in the last we can. And and if you want to break that up just a little bit.

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Geof Smith: if you go back to the I don't know if you want to say normal or original or no. You know the past super cycles. I think the next one's gonna be a little different if there is one

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Geof Smith: you're gonna have to start looking at more of the green things as opposed to the No fossil fuel type things, even though I think they're kind of ridiculous in their thought process behind that. I mean you can't do anything without fossil fuels period, I mean. I don't know what they're going to lubricate a bearing with. But I don't think you know corn sugar is going to do it.

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Geof Smith: They're gonna have to have, you know, some sort of lubricant that's made from crude oil, or whatever it may be, so

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Geof Smith: crude, is going to be around forever and 4 days unless they can, you know, do something, maybe magnetic bearings on everything. Who knows but that that's the thing you're gonna have to kind of pick and choose on the big super cycles and the grains? I mean, they're still doing some biofuels great, but they're thinking about going to hydrogen now already.

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Geof Smith: I'm no chemist, but I assume you can pull hydrogen out of something like the air so.

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Geof Smith: But I mean, that's the thing is you're gonna have to kind of pick and choose on whatever super soccer you're gonna be looking at. I think you're gonna see the solar stuff kind of do a little better the big thing or the chip guys. I mean, you gotta have semiconductors to do solar Panels period.

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Geof Smith: And and if you've noticed I was actually looking at the Nasdaq 100, and

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Geof Smith: I was looking at a a trade tracker. You know what that is, Celeste, and just seeing what was the strong and weak parts of the Nasdaq 100, and I thought it was very interesting. Right just on the I i'll say on a shorter term basis in the past couple of weeks they've been buying the chip guys. You know the Texas instruments, the intel's, the

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Geof Smith: the the microchip, the whatever it may be. and they're selling the biotech people.

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Geof Smith: so they're shortened to one side, and they're buying the other side. And I thought it was interesting because Nasdaq's the strongest index on the year.

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Geof Smith: But they've been doing it on all the chips side just because well, they need the chips, and of course I mean, look at the car lost. They're still pretty thin, I mean, just because they can't get chips for them, and that's the biggest thing right now is is trying to get those chips. And

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Geof Smith: when will they reconcile that? I have no idea.

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Geof Smith: But keep your eye on it just because once they start making all those chips and all those under the industries are probably going to start doing well, too. But I agree. I mean. I keep up millions of charts behind me in front of me, just to not have weekly daily, I mean, I mean look at a monthly chart every now and then.

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Geof Smith: just to see what the big picture is as opposed to the small picture. And you've seen a lot of things decline here in the past. No, a little bit. I mean, everybody's still thinking inflation is gonna be hurting things. But our dollar is expensive. We can't, you know, Export?

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Geof Smith: That's the biggest problem right now. We it's hard for us to export anything. and when you start listening to the Usda people

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Geof Smith: come out and say, hey, you know our our exports are going to be higher. We're going to be shipping out, you know, 10 billiondollars in beef as opposed to 7. Point 5 billiondollars in beef. Well look at that number because it might

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Geof Smith: flip around on them and say, Well, really, that's because the increase in the price of beef, not because we're selling more cows. We're selling just a higher price beef

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Geof Smith: but I wouldn't be surprised if box prices the premium box price of beat doesn't hit an all-time high, probably by this summer, just because of the no, the trend of the beef market right. Now.

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Celeste Lindman: interesting. Really.

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Geof Smith: if you ever hear commodity super cycle. Put your fingers in years and go. La, la, la, la, la! And and say, you just just watch what the market does. The markets right. They're not.

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Yeah.

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Celeste Lindman: Well said very well, said, that was excellent. I agree a lot of people talking about this is a great great program here. Well, you did touch on something a little interesting, Jeff, you know, talking about the Nasdaq and Jack. I'm going to spring this question on you here a little bit, because because you're right. I mean, you look at the Nasdaq. There's different pieces and parts moving in that technology sector. It has been the stronger one on the year, you know.

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Celeste Lindman: right wrong and different. Whatever your perspective is.

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Celeste Lindman: you know, at some point in time some mark and some markets have already gone up. You know they there. Would you would argue in bold markets as certain stocks or things, even though all this stuff is going on. You know you still got brilliant people, you know, that are entrepreneurs wanting to make money in their companies, and they're doing it. We've got lots of examples of that.

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Celeste Lindman: But to go back to kind of what you were saying, Jeff, with. You know the Nasdaq and what you were seeing there on the trade track, or some up some down. Jack Carter, you know. Is there is there any opportunity that's going to be coming that you see in the Nasdaq? Or what are your thoughts on that.

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Jack Carter: Not so much the Nasdaq index. But you know this is a stock picker's Market. and what I think of it being a stock picker's market. I don't think of it being a stock picker's market like, Can I pick a stock that's gonna go up?

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Jack Carter: I'm looking at it. Now is how Can I pick a stock and use that stock as an asset to create cash flow.

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Jack Carter: using options that that that's been my whole thing? So even though Amazon hasn't gone anywhere.

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Jack Carter: I'm almost embarrassed to see how much money I've made on it, you using, you know, premium driven strategy.

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Jack Carter: So that part I love about it. It doesn't matter. You got the right strategy which which way the market goes. So I don't think Nasdaq can get better. I I I think that you know it's it's it's

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Jack Carter: there's such a lack of earnings. You got these stocks trading it crazy PE's. Some of them don't even have a PE because they don't have any earnings. They don't even have an e. So i'm not too too bullish on on Nasdaq at some point it will be. But that's going to be. The only time that could happen is when

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Jack Carter: whoever's in charge is starting to lower interest rates not raise them, or it cannot win.

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Jack Carter: No, no part of it can really win against this fed. We have in this guy. He

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Jack Carter: he's, he's not so. The only thing I can do is is again. I think it's noise, and I like to filter out the noise and try to stay in my lane and find an opportunity where I can find a stock. Use that stock as an asset to create cash flow sometimes. That's in 3 or 4 days.

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Jack Carter: and sometimes it's longer. But

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Celeste Lindman: I got a surprise if they want to learn more about it. I got some good forum. Yeah, we want to hear more about that and feel free to take of that screen because I want to hear. And as you're doing that, maybe Jack, too, because you know, I've heard you say for a long time, and I totally agree. You were the first one to say it back in this whole 2,020. You know a thing that I heard anyway on ask the pros, you know the being a stock picker's market. And now you are also the one that brought to our attention to the volume that was increasing in the options

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Celeste Lindman: market, so could you also almost even say it's like it's like an options picking market as well, having those multiple strategies with options.

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Jack Carter: Exactly. I've never seen premiums, you know. I've been selling even with simple cover call strategies anything I've never seen options

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Jack Carter: at the premiums that

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Jack Carter: that where they can create the yield for you that they can create like I got one this week in Amazon. It's gonna expire today where I got into it on Tuesday, and it's gonna

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Jack Carter: pay 9% paid

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Jack Carter: the cash. Hit my account on Tuesday, and it's going to be out of the money today. It to close it for it to make 9, 3 days. I love that, and I don't have to do anything for me.

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Jack Carter: and that's because of the options market like you were saying and just one thing that's so crazy about this. We talked about this a little bit before, but you know my whole life 37 years in the market. My whole life in the market.

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Jack Carter: It was the underlying stock controlled, the the option.

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Jack Carter: the price to action, all everything about the option

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Jack Carter: it's controlled by the underlying stock, and that's still true for the most part. But there are situations now where it's the opposite, and the tail is wagging the dog.

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Jack Carter: as I call it, because the options are getting so far out of whack that you know, even if you were a market maker in the option. For example, if you're selling a bunch of apple calls to all these guys rushing into buy calls on apple. If you can't buy back

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Jack Carter: some of those same strike price calls, you know. You gotta go by the stock. And so now we're seeing situations where, especially with shorter term stuff that the volatility in the underlying stock is being caused by the options

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Jack Carter: crazy. But that's where it's at, and the premium

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Jack Carter: strategies I think when you apply that in a market-driven way where you're aligning it, bullish or bearish. That's

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Celeste Lindman: That's where the money resides.

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Jack Carter: Yeah.

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Celeste Lindman: looks great.

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Jack Carter: So let me move this out of the way.

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Celeste Lindman: Yeah, that's that's what we're here to do is pull it all together and make money.

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Jack Carter: Yeah. yeah.

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Jack Carter: all right. So i'm going to try to move this over

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Celeste Lindman: Very excellent content. By the way, some people were asking to where you can get a recording Adam type that in there you can go to atp traders.com that's ask the pros atp traders.com and scroll down. You can get all the recordings they usually get those posted in the afternoon.

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Jack Carter: so I just want to tell you about this. This is like my favorite

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Jack Carter: thing in the whole world. I've been doing this for a long time, and it's worked so well like I say, i'm almost embarrassed at how well it's worked, and I don't mean to rub that in, because I know a lot of people have not had success with their trades. But I want to tell you about this, so

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Jack Carter: I I got a trade that I think is going to return. It's going to be way higher than that at the close of the bell today. But it it was a great trade, and as long as Amazon doesn't spike up a whole lot between now and the close. This is going to pay off like like it does every Friday.

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Jack Carter: So this is how much room I have for air with this. I've got a ton of room, even if the the trade does it

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Jack Carter: go against me, or if it stays right here, I've got really very little risk, so i'd say, i'm in. I'm in pretty good shape with this trade for today, and my favorite part is Tuesday, and next week. I'm going to get into another trade just like this one, because every Tuesday I do this. I

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Jack Carter: I don't do it on Monday. I do it on Tuesday morning, about an hour after the market opens and settles down, and then I I enter what I call the 3 day cash machine trade.

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Jack Carter: and I like to target like 5 or more in 3 days, but people can use a sliding scale with the options chain and get whatever kind of yield they want this week. It worked out to be 9,

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Jack Carter: and what I'm going to do on Tuesday is, i'm going to repeat the exact same trade setup every week, all year long that people want to get in on this. It's going to change the way they trade, and it's all part of this new initiative. I launched a few weeks back, teaching everyday folks how to target around 500 a week

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Jack Carter: in extra cash through the stock market without touching a share of a stock, and this week was was a bit bigger than average, because I wanted to show people the flexibility of this. You really can get this dialed in to where you could pretty much get the kind of yield you want on a weekly basis.

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Jack Carter: So we launched 3 weeks ago, and my alerts have already hit their targets all 3 times 500, 500, and

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Jack Carter: I think it' be 900 now, and that means anyone who invested 10,000 at the beginning would have already been up 1,800 and cold, hard cash just in the last 3 weeks, and that's like an extra paycheck for the month of March, and i'm ready to do it again next week, like I say, I, I put my own money on the line. I don't just talk to talk. I walk the walk. I love doing it. I love helping people do this.

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Jack Carter: It's almost impossible to see this with the naked eye, but I spotted a real nice loop here, so i'd like to get everybody in there, and of course, there's no way for me to guarantee any future results. Like I say, I do it myself. There's going to be a loss here and there. That's just the way it is. So each week we target $500 or more.

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Jack Carter: and we've done well because this method is based to run a little known income method. I've used with an incredible 97.1 success rate.

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Jack Carter: I gotta knock on wood, because you know that's not going to stay that way, and I don't want people to get involved with this, because the success rate is so high, they should get involved with this, because

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Jack Carter: once you know how to make weekly income, you're you're gold. You're off to the races. So while anyone is welcome to take me up on this new trade, i'm doing next Tuesday. I'm doing something very special for the first 100 students today, so i'll give you a hit. It has everything to do with this $500

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Jack Carter: green cash money right there, all right. So if you want to be one of the first 100 to claim this $500

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Jack Carter: plus access, the brand new two-step trade i'm going to release this Tuesday. It's going to be another killer. Then all I ask is that you take a few minutes right now and watch this brief presentation. I've just finished putting together. All you gotta do is go to Jack Carter, trading.com forward slash atp! For as the pros and you can unlock the whole income initiative for free Watch that presentation. It's. It's pretty amazing, and people have taken me up on this challenge that I started this initial.

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Jack Carter: and they were glad they did so. I hope you have the same results.

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Celeste Lindman: That's great. What and what incredible results that you're having of it, even just as you said 9 this week, I mean, within a few days. I mean, compare that to what the interest rate is going to. That's phenomenal just using that same process that you're doing over and over again. Some people are asking some questions here on on the chat, like, you know. What is your risk to make? The $500. Can you explain a little bit more about what you're doing in there?

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Jack Carter: The the the you can use a different amount of capital to make that $500, depending upon how much profit you want to make on the trade, and how you set it up, and which strike prices on the options you use. So it's that's all it's based on is you can get

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Jack Carter: a trade setup closer to the price of the stock and make more than 500, or you could get a little further away and take less risk and and make less than the 500. But I also use a a thing that I invented called a trip wire.

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Jack Carter: and that is a a price that if the underlying stock hits that price that i'm going to unwind this trade.

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Jack Carter: and that might happen like once a year. But that tool is a really great management tool to you, so that it takes kind of like a lot of anxiety out of the trade. So you know what you're going to do beforehand. In the unlikely event the trade doesn't work out for us. So I give everybody actually 3 exit strategies

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Jack Carter: for what to do If the stock hit that trip where so the most you can lose is the amount that you put up on any trade. That's that's it. Your Your risk is limited right there, and we try to manage not losing that money by using the trip layer.

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Celeste Lindman: Yeah, a lot of that's a just a a really great opportunity. What do you see? You know, as you know, next week coming up, You know the volatility now, and you get being able to look at the on Tuesday, you know, getting into another trade. How does that impact? You know what's happened? Impact what you're going to be thinking about on Tuesday, or is that just part of that noise

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Jack Carter: That's just part of the noise the market, you know the market is crazy like you have this news flow theory, and it's kind of true that when the market closes on Friday. then everything that happens over the weekend. It leads up to a a big

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Jack Carter: rush on Monday to get an order filled, and I know this. When I was a Nasdaq market maker. I would come in on Monday morning.

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Jack Carter: and you know people that wanted to get into the stock. They would put an order in to buy the stock

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Jack Carter: at the market, not on a limit.

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Jack Carter: So all these brokers, all their customers, heard the same news, or whatever, and they're all bringing in in order to buy this stock

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Jack Carter: exactly when the market opens market on open by it at the market. So that's that terrible place to try to place a strategic trade, because you got all these people over reacting to some news or something, and that's kind of how it is the first

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Jack Carter: hour of every day, but especially on Monday.

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Jack Carter: So I let all that dust settle for Monday, and then I even wait an hour about after Tuesday's open to find. Where Where is that sweet spot going to be right on that stock to where we can use that stock as an asset to create cash flow, and not really think of it as an investment at all in the stock we don't. We don't touch a share of the stock

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Celeste Lindman: excellent, that's great. Well, everybody just needs to go to the link right there. Adam posted it in the chat and just go back. Go over to that link and get it, grab it and get started. What kind of go ahead?

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Jack Carter: No, I think they'll love it. This is unlike anything people have have ever seen, and I get a ton of questions about it, and it's almost impossible to explain it like in just a couple of minutes. Which is why we got that whole presentation, and I couldn't be able to watch that it's a little tricky.

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Jack Carter: and it's not something people can really see at first, until, like you know, shed a little light on how that strategy works, and why it works so well. That's what they need to understand. So

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Jack Carter: yeah, go watch that initiative, that video at presentation. You'll love it.

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Celeste Lindman: That'll be something to call him your nerves this weekend after this week that'd be really really good to go watch a question, you know. So you Really, you're doing this on Tuesday morning? Not a Tuesday close. Is that correct? Yeah, Tuesday morning, like about an hour after the market opens, the way that actually works is I place to trade myself.

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Jack Carter: and as soon as I get my order filled, then I issue an alert that goes out by email, and it gets posted in a members area. But the beautiful thing is

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Jack Carter: there's no rush to get into the trade, no rush at all. So once you get the trade for me. You know that I I place it with my own money, so I think it's a good trade. But if you don't place that exact trade. There's a lot of trades near that one that you can do for a little bit more, a little bit less risk.

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Jack Carter: little bit more, a little less income. So no rush. But yeah, Tuesday morning, about an hour after the market opens.

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Jack Carter: I like to get in there and find. But in that trade for the week.

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Jack Carter: Excellent! Do you go over some of that kind of flexibility on some of the training material that's available. Great question. So this is the kind of thing that like. You can't even teach it to a person in an email. So I put together these 13 videos called the 3 Day Cache Machine Video series.

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Jack Carter: and that answers every simple question you could have about this because it was kinda like based out of questions, for when I presented the the strategy kind of live. And I took all these notes. You got the most common questions, and and so I walk you through in these 13 videos exactly

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Jack Carter: how to create your profit, how to unwind it. What to do, Every everything you you would need to know is in that that videos. But I also understand there's people need a little handholding, and sometimes there's some gaps in your understanding. So I I provide unlimited email support. Once you're in the program also.

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Jack Carter: So that's why people are successful with it. The training is great, and and Jack has your back. So

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Celeste Lindman: yeah, well, great. Well, all you all need to do is just go right there to that link. It's posted in the chat. Just go to Jack Carter, trading.com slash atp and unlock that initiative, find out and get get going on a great opportunity. Make that 9, 5%, whatever it is.

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Jack Carter: you know, in a couple of days. That's a pretty good dog on good return. So thanks, for I love it. I love the way it works. Just the whole mechanics of it. Everything. It's beautiful.

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Celeste Lindman: Yeah, excellent. Well, and I know I know Jeff and Scott do a lot with these options as well. They've talked about it, too, and and so great opportunity here with Jack Carter to get started on this. Just go unlock it. It's free. Find out and get going with Jack Carter on this trading and start earning that. So thanks everybody for being with us. Anything else, Jack, to add Jeff, anybody.

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Celeste Lindman: Scott.

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Geof Smith: The only thing I would have to say is, I actually have Jack's accuracy on that trade at

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Geof Smith: 97.4. So I think he's wrong.

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Jack Carter: You know everything's gonna have a loser. I just don't know when I don't plan on it happening, but it's it's gonna happen, and i'm ready if it does. because I got a little hedge built into this, and sometimes when the trade blows up you could end up actually making even more than you originally

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Celeste Lindman: started to. But that's that's a whole. Another story I'll save for another day. I bet you got some good training on that as well. So really, out of the out of 110 trades is lost. 3. Yeah, yeah, pretty dog going. Good it is.

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Celeste Lindman: That's really excellent. Great Great stuff, Jack. Thanks for joining us as always. Just a privilege to have all you guys here on. Ask the pros and the great content on a day like this

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Celeste Lindman: crazy day, Crazy week, and hopefully all been calmed a little bit and have perspective. So any last comments, Scott, any last words to send us into next week with this crazy market?

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Scott Welsh: No, it except for just a call. You know there are simple things that you can do in the market. You can wait for your pitch, or you can take a trade once a week like Jack does just

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Scott Welsh: don't panic stick to your program. Find something that's comfortable in your life, and it's going to be just fine. It's not not as bad as you think. Very good, Jeff Smith.

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Geof Smith: Just beware of the hype of news. I'm with Jack a 100%. That's just a bunch of noise. Let the market. Shake it out, and then you'll find out what the trend really is

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Jack Carter: excellent. And, Jack Carter, what are your final words?

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Jack Carter: It's a good market. It's bearish bad. They want to label it. Let me just tell you. There's always great opportunities out there in any market condition, so I just think thank you for showing up. Invest in yourself, and keep doing what you're doing, and just know that there's good stuff out there Always

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Celeste Lindman: excellent, good, good, good. Right? Well, learning never ends, as Cyrus has written him there as well. A lot of great material per usual. Go to that link, Jack carter.com slash atp. Get going with this program. Get on the right side of the market. Stay calm. You can go back. You can listen to [email protected] scroll down, you'll get to the recordings that's atp. Ask the pros

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Celeste Lindman: mit Ctl and I get. Go back and take another. Listen. After you've listened to what Jack Carter has to say there at Jacques Carter. Com Slash atp! Go find out 150.

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Celeste Lindman: Thank you. Everyone for joining us, and we're getting ready to head over to ask the pros premium where Fausto is joining us. And you know that your you'd love hearing from Fausto perfect timing to hear from him, because he sees exactly what those insiders are doing, what the institutions are doing. The Nasdaq. We talked about the Nasdaq to that today the Nasdaq has foul to come over and train their people. That's

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Celeste Lindman: That's the kind of inside information that he has, and he's gonna be sharing with us some things on. Ask the pros premium here in just a few minutes, so

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Celeste Lindman: thank you. Everyone for joining us here. We'll see all back next week. We will live to see another day, and we will be making money up and down in a variety of stock trading ideas. So join us next week. Go get Jack carter.com slash atp and learn how to do this process with Jack. Thanks. Everyone for joining us, Jeff

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Geof Smith: Scott, Jack, thanks for being with us. Thanks for having me.

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Jack Carter: Everybody good to see. You guys. Nice to meet you, Scott.

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Jack Carter: Thank you.

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Celeste Lindman: We'll see you next week. Join us over at. Ask the Pros premium.