It was a lively first Friday of June on Ask The Pros as we covered every time frame from the small intraday to the longer-term cycles of commodities.
This broad-to-small timeframe analysis is great for traders wanting to get on the right side in the short term as they ride stocks and commodities up and down throughout the summer months.
There’s plenty of that to go around, because, as Jack Carter pointed out, the divergence between the leaders and the losers is huge.
Fausto Pugliese shared insight on UCAR, a Chinese electric vehicle penny stock supplier making waves.
Meanwhile, Roger Scott filled us in on possible sector rotation for June and shared a slew of trade ideas as a result.
Finally, Geof Smith shared the beef about cattle prices and other commodities as he related them to trading stocks and options —something he’s been 91% accurate on.
All of this spells an exciting summer, as Fausto emphasized. If you sell in May and go away, you might be disappointed come September.
Get access to Geof Smith‘s 91%+ accurate trading service, 12X Trader immediately: click right here. For just $12 for a full year, you’ll get a trade alert a month, plus options training and instant access to Tom Busby’s 3 best-selling books. This is a steal at just $12 for the year. Click here to join Geof now!
On this week’s show: Geof Smith, Fausto Pugliese, Jack Carter and Roger Scott.
Prefer to read this episode? Click below,
Show transcripts are auto-generated by computer, so they won’t be perfect.
If something doesn’t make sense, you can skip to the timestamp in the video above to hear it. Questions? Drop us a line.
►Click To View This Episode's Transcript◄1 00:00:00.170 --> 00:00:02.280 Celeste Lindman: We gotta get going. 2 00:00:02.380 --> 00:00:13.040 Celeste Lindman: Fortunately the debt ceiling crisis is over and we can get into June right? but we do have that fed day coming up here in the middle of the month, just to spice things up a little bit. 3 00:00:13.060 --> 00:00:24.009 Celeste Lindman: So let's find out what these pros think about all these things going on, and particularly how they're going to approach June. We've got false. So you lazy with us, welcome back file. So we're so glad you're here. 4 00:00:24.010 --> 00:00:47.440 Celeste Lindman: We got Jack Carter that hopefully will join us here with sound. And of course Uncle Roger and Jeff Smith. So let's get going. I want to know from you guys, let's get started with you first. Fausto. What did you notice if anything in May that's like really getting you ready for June. I know you do a lot of this intro day trading. You do this. You see, this iceberg kind of thing. 5 00:00:47.440 --> 00:00:51.409 Celeste Lindman: Is, is there anything that you noticed in May that, you know, kind of getting you ready for June. 6 00:00:51.540 --> 00:01:10.120 Fausto Pugliese: you know. I I I I always kind of listen to these analysts on TV. I wake up in the morning before I get started. My my trades, I mean, I'm with my traders at like 7 45 in the morning, 80'clock. We do a lot of pre-market. And they also the same thing. They feel bashing Facebook. They're bashing the video. They're bashing like all these high tech. And you know they didn't go down. 7 00:01:10.120 --> 00:01:22.790 Fausto Pugliese: I mean, they actually did it totally opposite what's going on? So as I I mean the market right now is what we' about 600 points right now on the down. The S. And P. Are about 55. So there's obviously a little bit of a rally going on. We broke through a bit big resistance. So like. 8 00:01:22.790 --> 00:01:48.950 Fausto Pugliese: you know what? What's great about what we do as as day traders is that you know, by seeing what's happened over the course of the day. We'll trickle in into a swing trade in new investment and into an option trade, and that's what I really kind of seeing. And like I'm I'm seeing a lot of these like stocks that were very expensive. That also got very crushed. I know Jeffrey was bringing it up yesterday. That termin is like what you guys looking at. And I say, My God! Like you car yesterday, and there was another one this morning. 9 00:01:49.090 --> 00:02:04.839 Fausto Pugliese: yeah, what was the other one that And then the I mean the stock Lily went from like, I don't know a dollar to $4. I mean, there's some really good stocks out there that really got beat up. Come back. But going into to to this this summer, I mean I I I'm pretty excited. 10 00:02:04.970 --> 00:02:21.320 Celeste Lindman: Oh, I want to hear more about that excitement. We gotta hear why you're excited. Let me move over to you, Roger. What are you thinking? You know about June after you've gone through, May? What? What kind of things? What do you you know? Anything that's shifting that you've seen in sectors, broad markets. What? 11 00:02:21.320 --> 00:02:43.370 Roger Scott: Yeah, I think I I think. And and thanks for for having me here. I appreciate it. I haven't been here for a few weeks. I I I genuinely. I genuinely believe the market is going to soften up. I think a lot of what we've seen is going to be reversed. I think we're going to see some, some downside and technology stocks in the 5 or 6 stocks that have been driving this market. And I think we're going to see 12 00:02:43.370 --> 00:03:05.409 Roger Scott: some upside and health care consumer staples, and basically all the stocks that got their air sucked out of them by those 6 tech stocks. So I think a lot of the blue chips I'm starting to. What I think is going to happen is the Dow is going to get stronger at the expense of the Nasdaq, which has been the opposite of what we've been seeing. Yeah, yeah, for sure, for sure. Let's see, Jack Carter. Have you been able to join us? 13 00:03:06.430 --> 00:03:24.999 Celeste Lindman: Okay, I don't see Jack, so we'll just keep going. Jeff Smith. How about you? You know we love your commodity mindset. It helps. Give us the the right kind of focus and a big picture. What's going on? Is there anything that had your attention in in May, maybe a certain commodity or anything. What? How did you look at May? How are you looking at June with that perspective? 14 00:03:25.000 --> 00:03:49.559 Geof Smith: Well, we're coming into a harvest of wheat right now. so we usually know you've heard of the harvest lows. So it's probably gonna be a little weaker going over into probably July. and probably start to kind of rig or share that usually drags down corn and soybeans at the same time. you look at the I mean, I always just start looking at. You know how the plantings are going, and how no little sprouts are coming up, and 15 00:03:49.700 --> 00:03:58.679 Geof Smith: you know the rain and what's been going on everywhere. This is a very critical time of year, especially for soybeans, corn, even cotton 16 00:03:58.710 --> 00:04:20.930 Geof Smith: And so I've been kind of anxiously waiting. We just had a crop progress report come out on a Tuesday that I kind of peeled through a little bit we've got World dag supply coming out next week. so that'll give us a little better feel for not only what we're doing here, but what's happening around globally, especially since we're 17 00:04:20.930 --> 00:04:45.539 Geof Smith: coming into kind of our harvest here. we're going into plantings and stuff like that down in Brazil, and things like that. So I want to kind of see what's going on over there, and kind of see what the crops are doing over in Australia. And well, and I'd actually no them say and Ukraine but I mean, who knows if anything's coming out of there or not anymore? Sometimes they say they are. Sometimes they say they're not. So I just kind of wrote them off. 18 00:04:45.740 --> 00:04:55.820 Geof Smith: so which is gonna really hurt? No global supplies. If that's going to be the case that we'll keep our ear to the ground on that. 19 00:04:56.200 --> 00:05:09.490 Celeste Lindman: Yeah, we it just becomes so commonplace. But kind of it's just part of our everyday. What's going on in Ukraine. So Thanks for that reminder. Well, well, oh, Jack Carter, you have joined us. Can you hear us? Yes, I can. 20 00:05:09.490 --> 00:05:39.280 Fausto Pugliese: Hey, Kay! There. Hey, Jack, how are you, hey, Roger? How are you doing, hey? How's that sauce, baby Video? You gotta watch it. I know I can't wait. I want you to serve it to me on a bowl of hot noodles. Right? Oh, this noodles, this that's not a real world. And you, spaghetti! Okay, I'm Irish, my wife's Italian. I don't know what to tell you. That's great, that's great. Hey, Jack, we were just talking really kind of about. You know what things that you saw in May. 21 00:05:39.280 --> 00:06:02.600 Jack Carter: How that's transitioning into June, impacting how? What your view is on June? How would you answer that question? may was a a shocker one of the best months I've had in over a year. really, really, really surprised. at kind of the disconnect which I'll show you in a few minutes between Nasdaq and the other 2 major indexes. But 22 00:06:02.630 --> 00:06:13.510 Jack Carter: this was very narrow and very deep. I think it was just like 5 or 6 stocks that were really given up all the action and even then I was just 23 00:06:14.010 --> 00:06:24.580 Jack Carter: could not believe Avg O. Had like a hundred dollar swing in one day. It opened really strong, over 900 and then faded back. And 24 00:06:24.730 --> 00:06:34.280 Jack Carter: I'm just seeing a lot of these short-term options like today. We'll see just tons of 0 days to expiration options on tech stocks where these 25 00:06:34.370 --> 00:06:52.629 Jack Carter: orders to buy calls come in in the morning, and that first 12 to 17 min, and then it's just crazy it today it'll be the same thing. so yeah, I'm seeing wild swings just a few stocks kind of leading the pack tech thankfully. I love. I love tech, you know, Nvidia 26 00:06:52.630 --> 00:07:14.210 Jack Carter: Avgo, all that stuff and a little bit of Cmg, but over all the markets. Are not that healthy? You know. They look when you look at the news you see stuff screaming, but the dial is as I look at it as bearish, and S. And P. 500 is barely hanging on so all all this could head south in June. It wouldn't surprise me a bit. 27 00:07:14.630 --> 00:07:37.979 Celeste Lindman: That's that's well said. Well, let's keep it going. Let's come back to you. Foul still. Got to find out. What are you so excited about coming into the summer months, I mean, when we think you know some may go away, or you know, doldrums of the summer. What are you so excited about. And I know you were talking about that. You car, I mean. What a stock that was fantastic! So what you excited did you look it up. I mean, I sure did. Yeah, it was like 90. 28 00:07:37.980 --> 00:08:02.969 Fausto Pugliese: Oh, it's unbelievable. Yesterday it was at 2 90. The thing just ran away with $11. And then today it went all the way to 15, started back off. I wouldn't trade it any any more. I mean we did. That was yesterday's news, but it's nice. I've seen a lot of these inexpensive socks that got really beat up with a lot of these short squeezes. I mean, I'm seeing a lot more and more short squeezes, and I'm also seeing a lot more stocks getting halted. you know. Sometimes these stocks move up so fast they hold 29 00:08:02.970 --> 00:08:24.840 Fausto Pugliese: for 5 min, and you know, and I'm always out there telling her. But, hey, we'll get you got a big runner up. So I this I'm feel like this summer is going to be a lot different than most. Some summer's usually slow. People start going away when you get to August, and so on. But I'm finding more and more. a lot more volatility. It's been happened happening more more and more, I mean, like, I was just down in Nasdaq. 30 00:08:24.850 --> 00:08:38.529 Fausto Pugliese: it was it? Yeah, last week. And we, you know, talking about the NASA you were in there saying like they they their their volumes up almost by 50. They controlled almost 50 of the volume just in all the stops. In general, they're seeing a big big 31 00:08:38.530 --> 00:08:55.190 Fausto Pugliese: rushing in in volume, in in the exchanges. So I'm I'm actually quite excited. I think there's a lot of great opportunities. So I think the summer is going to be a really probably a a lot more vile to them past ones. Hey? Hey, Faust, I gotta ask you. You know, guys got killed shorting Nvidia. Did they talk about that at all. 32 00:08:55.370 --> 00:09:18.430 Fausto Pugliese: They didn't really talk about it. I I I mean a lot. What what's happening is that in the video is trickling into a lot of the other AI stocks. I mean you. So what happened with AI in general? x AI. I was another one. and not only that. But what's also we're finding a lot of is that the a lot of the drug stocks are taking off, too. I mean, you've probably heard about 33 00:09:18.430 --> 00:09:36.809 Fausto Pugliese: and all of those stocks that you know the diabetes, drugs, I mean, a lot of them is starting to pick up like a an ov. You know that owns it. You know, there's a lot of these lot of these things I'm just seeing they are really starting to pick up some big momentum. But that's why people got really hurt when the video I have. I heard more people went long than short 34 00:09:36.930 --> 00:09:55.329 Jack Carter: I just probably. But the guys I read that went short. They may be some of them permanently out now. I mean that that that's insane to short of stock like that with the unknowns, you know there's so many better shorts that are already going down rather than to pick something like that and have your face ripped off and put yourself out of business. 35 00:09:55.330 --> 00:10:13.500 Jack Carter: the video. But well, the video, I mean, if you really look at what it basically done in the in the past year, I mean almost all this year. I know it's been crazy, you know. I mean, it was down to a hundred dollars. You could tell me. still long. Yeah, they have a. They have a contract with the Government where they can't. They're prohibited. 36 00:10:13.520 --> 00:10:20.050 Roger Scott: they they're prohibited in disclosing what they are doing for the Us. Government to China specifically in their contract, which I think is pretty cool. 37 00:10:20.210 --> 00:10:22.670 Jack Carter: Yeah, you know, in the in like 38 00:10:22.800 --> 00:10:34.819 Jack Carter: Celeste was talking about before we were talking about Eli Lilly as leadership and management, you know. And Nvidia, they got all the kind of management in the world that guy is really top dog. 39 00:10:36.040 --> 00:10:53.099 Celeste Lindman: They're they're ahead of the curve, hey? I felt like that question for you to when you're talking about that volatility, you know that you think will occur in the summertime. Do you think that there's going to be plenty of opportunity to the upside into the downside? Do you think it's a little skewed one way or the other. Does it matter to you? How do you look at that? 40 00:10:53.370 --> 00:10:55.960 Fausto Pugliese: You know I I'll give you an example. 41 00:10:56.360 --> 00:11:12.329 Fausto Pugliese: couple of friends of mine on real estate and and New York the same is gonna get killed because of, you know, the the homes are actually doing well. But like businesses, or, you know, just commercial real estate. Everybody's working from home. So I'm like, is it time to buy whatever it is like? Listen. 42 00:11:12.330 --> 00:11:24.160 Fausto Pugliese: this is, it's always an opportunity to. Okay, always. So it's like the stock market for us, no matter what the volatility is. If you people think it's going to go down along. It doesn't affect us because we're day trading. So we're just as 43 00:11:24.160 --> 00:11:45.229 Fausto Pugliese: there are 25,000 stocks out there that trade every day. So we're trading the top 5 that are moving the market. So there's always going to be opportunities out there. But I just feel like I'm seeing more and more stocks that are just getting just more volatile. And I the only thing I'm concerned about, which I you know, I think that you know. Roger brought up a little bit. It's like he started these things starting a little expensive. 44 00:11:45.230 --> 00:12:07.870 Fausto Pugliese: I mean, they are getting a little bit. I mean, you look what I heard people like bashing Facebook, I need Facebook. And they have had a big run. Amazon. These things start to double apple. I mean, they they're up a lot, so those might take off a little bit, but like, but some of the low cap socks that we trade some more less. It's an in less expensive they they've been. They've been on fire. Yeah. 45 00:12:07.870 --> 00:12:32.199 Celeste Lindman: So talk a little bit about your schedule, Fausto, because I mean, I know before we started, you're talking about all the different things that you like to do. You know, family recipes, that sort of thing. And you know, summers coming up all the barbecues, I mean, are you glued to a computer? What's your schedule like coming into this summer? How do you anticipate you're going to do that? I I think everybody here is pretty much has the same schedule as me. I mean us as traders like when we get to our age. 46 00:12:32.200 --> 00:12:52.080 Fausto Pugliese: And you know, working, this is full time jobs. So we really pretty much is bang out. We have to bang out in the morning. A lot of the action happens early in the morning or late in the afternoon, but depending on where you logged in from, you could do it in the middle of the day, whatever. But this is not a full time. Job. The the key of everything, is surrounding yourself with good traders, you know, like, you know, some of you know the 47 00:12:52.080 --> 00:13:15.799 Fausto Pugliese: regarding with Jeff and with, you know, and and and Tom Buzzville. They had these trading rooms, you, as long as you surround yourself with good traders, and you learn from good traders, and the most important thing is not to learn how to make money, but learning how to stop losing it. That will make you succeed, and you know and and prescribe, you know, do well moving forward over the years. but that's that's really what the real schedule is, do things that you enjoy being. 48 00:13:15.800 --> 00:13:43.670 Fausto Pugliese: You don't want to make this very stressful. A lot of people make it stressful. You can't trade a lot, but you have to trade, but just make a few trades, and if you don't trade, come back tomorrow. Listen. It's like fishing, you know. You might not hit your 800 pound tuna, but eventually you'll get it as always keep doing as long as you love doing it, you know, and that's that's really what the schedule. It is perfect. Well, and speaking of, you know, finding opportunities, that sort of thing. How did what's the best way for people to find opportunities like you car, and the other one you mentioned in Wv. I think it was 49 00:13:43.920 --> 00:14:13.639 Fausto Pugliese: well, I mean I I can, I can make sure. Let me just show my screen really quick. So you guys can see what we got going on here. so basically, you could see, here's in the video. But let's look at the stock at, you know. Mmv, v. This morning. You could see it right here. Start around 80'clock this morning, and it had a big run around 845 things already at at a dollar ran a rate at 2 50. Marco was not even open, Celeste, and then, with the market opened up. You could see it ran from 2, 30 all the way to $4. That's another dollar move. That's a 20% move. 50 00:14:13.640 --> 00:14:15.830 Fausto Pugliese: Even if you missed it in pre-market. 51 00:14:15.830 --> 00:14:31.170 Fausto Pugliese: you know. And obviously it went down, and a lot of people looking at it. Well, why is it going down? And you know I'm a very big believer in, and I know Jack knows this very well. I just follow the orders. I mean, if you look over here and follow these orders. You could see here 52 00:14:31.170 --> 00:14:58.440 Fausto Pugliese: that iceberg, or it started showing up right here, and you could see these little red lines. Those are big orders that showed up. These are algorithms, dark pools, you know all that. So we kind of just more just follow the orders of these trades, and and just basically follow the money. So as long as you try within within that range where all those orders are that pretty much does it? Here's you car. By the way, I'm gonna show you this thing was just I I mean, we were talking about it. But visual people like Don't really get it until they see it. 53 00:14:58.440 --> 00:15:24.489 Fausto Pugliese: But This was you car where they put. Oh, there it is, right there, this is you car from yesterday. So if you see this thing from yesterday, it's just unbelievable. It started right, or it. It had a good move early in the morning, and then right around 100'clock. It had it did this break out? Huge orders came in. $5 ran to about 9. Then it did something not 12, and you could see. Look at it when only to 15. These are the things that we kind of focus on as a trader. 54 00:15:24.500 --> 00:15:28.540 Fausto Pugliese: And you know, just the last last, but not least, just put it right here 55 00:15:28.570 --> 00:15:56.579 Fausto Pugliese: to show what's going on. Now it's trending down. You can see orders out there, or it's getting filled. So now it's more in a down trend, so you can see how the words are getting filled. So to me it's more of a short sleeve. You know, the whole idea is just not getting squeezed. Yeah, I love that. Love that. And just a reminder. Everybody, too. Fausto actually teaches the people at Nasdaq how to use some of their tools, and that was some of the things you that you were just showing us were the tools that that are available at the Nasdaq. 56 00:15:56.580 --> 00:16:16.350 Fausto Pugliese: Yeah, this is actually, if anybody wants to. This guys actually didn't ask that book viewer if I want to see it. You know you did this. They push you, I mean, Jack knows we used to pay a thousand dollars a month for this platform. You get the and you get it right from Nasdaq. So why would you not want to know where all the orders are? So instead of getting all these fancy tools and stuff. 57 00:16:16.350 --> 00:16:30.190 Fausto Pugliese: Just go right to NASA, paid to $15, and and here you could see every single order, no matter what stock you're looking at. You know it's amazing they do that that that used to be all hidden from the public, and only the Nasdaq market maker would have that. 58 00:16:30.240 --> 00:16:39.100 Fausto Pugliese: What's the difference between the bid and the ask on that stock 59 00:16:39.300 --> 00:16:43.580 Jack Carter: packed w like what it? What are they like? 5 cents between the bid and ask 60 00:16:43.900 --> 00:16:55.159 Jack Carter: Well, right here you could see it's like 2 cents right here is that that's a nice tight spread. I like those I I don't like the low price stocks with the widespread. That's beautiful. That's that's the right there. 61 00:16:55.160 --> 00:17:19.540 Fausto Pugliese: It's all about volume. They they do it. I mean, it's not trade 2.2 million shares on the net on on the actual Nasdaq market. But overall, you know, right here we've been trading this stock. It had a pack W. One of those bank stocks from California that all got affected by had a good move this morning. Ran from like 7 to about 7 80. But you know trade 18 million. Because, remember, the Nasdaq is just one exchange or multiple exchange New York. 62 00:17:19.540 --> 00:17:26.959 Fausto Pugliese: You could see them right here on Level 2. There's Edg X. There's Archipelago, you know, right here it's all different exchanges. 63 00:17:26.960 --> 00:17:36.319 Fausto Pugliese: But just on Nasdaq you can't see all those. What's what's great about this is that you can't see all. What's happening actually, at that exchange. 64 00:17:36.320 --> 00:17:44.719 Fausto Pugliese: But if you get the if you get the actual book viewer now, you could see like I'll even highlight it for you. I don't take too much time. But 65 00:17:46.120 --> 00:17:52.670 Fausto Pugliese: what is it you could see was it? NASA is X and S. Just highlight it. 66 00:17:54.250 --> 00:18:17.660 Fausto Pugliese: See now, as that's highlighted right there, and if you look at but you can't see who who who's buying it. At 1155 152. You can't see any of those orders, but when you click here and now you can see all the orders out there. So that's why level 2. Some people like they don't really use it that much. It's been outdated since the late nineties. But we need this book to kind of help. It's a good start, basically for everyone. 67 00:18:17.660 --> 00:18:29.649 Celeste Lindman: Well, we gotta have you back on fast. So you can go into more detail with this. So we're looking forward to that. I think maybe next week to you, you're coming. But but yeah, and just to clarify that the data fees are included with that $15 a month. Right? 68 00:18:29.790 --> 00:18:49.060 Fausto Pugliese: Yeah. The only time it like that that it gets expensive for somebody. As long as you're not a professional meaning. You're a stock broker, or you're an analyst. then then it'll push you 85. But no one here that's listening in is not a a a professional. I mean, we look at his professionals. But like, but we're not like treating someone else's money. So that's that's where 69 00:18:49.060 --> 00:19:08.680 Celeste Lindman: people get, you know, getting get confused and like, well, he wants to charge me next month, but it's really not the case. Excellent, great! Well, thank you, Foster, thanks so much for sharing all that. Appreciate it. All right, let's keep moving, Jack. Why, you're speaking there. Tell us a little bit more about this disconnect between the dial and the Nasdaq. What do you think 70 00:19:12.070 --> 00:19:13.500 Jack Carter: I'll try to find it. 71 00:19:21.320 --> 00:19:25.600 Celeste Lindman: Can everybody see my trend point screen? 72 00:19:25.690 --> 00:19:31.909 Jack Carter: No, I got this thing is in a way alright. So this this is what I look at. 73 00:19:32.550 --> 00:19:53.369 Jack Carter: I like to use a market driven approach all the time. So the first things I look at are these 3 etfs. I'm gonna show you. The first one is Dia, and this is in a 6 month chart, and you know that that's yesterday's bar, a higher, daily, high, and a higher, daily low. But it was. It's still to me real bearish outside of that one day's bar. 74 00:19:53.370 --> 00:20:08.720 Jack Carter: So this is just kind of a choppy sideways market. These are my trend points. If the stock is below all 3 trend points, it's bearish, if it's above it, it's bullish. This was been kind of stuck in the middle. So I'm looking at that. And then you look at spy. 75 00:20:12.540 --> 00:20:30.450 Jack Carter: and that's that's bullish, right? The dow isn't. This is so weird that the Dow wouldn't be doing at least as the same as the spy. So this is much more bullish, right? So I'm I'm leaning more bullish right now with my strategies, and then the top it off. I look at Qq. 76 00:20:30.500 --> 00:20:40.679 Jack Carter: That's the tech market. And look at that. That is the most bullish of the 3. And what's ironic is? I think it was back in in 21. I noticed that 77 00:20:41.790 --> 00:20:58.730 Jack Carter: Nasdaq was not the lead index which it normally is in normal times, but for over a year it wasn't. And it's kind of broken through now, and what I like to also back this up with is, I look at new highs, and there's a lot more new lows. 78 00:20:58.910 --> 00:21:11.440 Jack Carter: Then there are new highs, even though this looks like a bullish market. That's kind of the trap of it. Is that? you know, you can see right here the number of stocks on the up trend you got apple. 79 00:21:11.650 --> 00:21:13.770 Jack Carter: but you know 80 00:21:13.800 --> 00:21:16.039 Jack Carter: you can pull up any of these on here. 81 00:21:16.830 --> 00:21:21.419 Jack Carter: and then when you look at the down trending stocks, I also see 82 00:21:22.770 --> 00:21:28.639 Jack Carter: where we have some like industries. Am Jen hit a new low 83 00:21:29.130 --> 00:21:50.350 Jack Carter: Abbey hit a new low. So I'm looking at that, too. But right now I'm seeing a bullish market that doesn't have like a lot of fire underneath it. It could be extinguished at any time. It doesn't have a lot of burning hot logs. So it's kind of a fragile, Bullish situation. But the big disconnect I see is is Nasdaq is totally broken away from 84 00:21:50.500 --> 00:22:02.759 Jack Carter: Qq. And spy. Here it is just again. This is like the most bullish it's been in a long time. back from March, right there, busted higher. So that's what I'm seeing. 85 00:22:02.960 --> 00:22:13.749 Celeste Lindman: Yeah. Hey, Jeff Smith? All month I've just been thinking about being in the classroom with you, and about the divergence between all of those markets. What do you think about what What Jack sharing there? 86 00:22:13.990 --> 00:22:29.829 Geof Smith: But you know it's kind of funny. in class. I used to like. Buy the Nasdaq and short, the dow, or vice versa. And that's been working actually, very, very well lately. I mean, you can buy the Nan back at the open short to doubt the open and make money both ways. It is crazy. 87 00:22:30.190 --> 00:22:58.310 Celeste Lindman: very, very strange things going on out there when you got just a handful of stocks driving an index higher, not a healthy sign at all. No, no, no, no! So, Jack, do you find yourself? Do you find yourself on on a daily or weekly basis kind of having your your short candidates and your long candidates. You know things that you're thinking of, shorting things that you're thinking of going long 88 00:22:58.310 --> 00:23:15.449 Jack Carter: a naked put on on apple, which is fantastic. You know you're not gonna get this stock put to you. And those are really high yield trades. And then a lot of credit spreads on. For example, Nvidia, a vgo, and even Cmg, Cmg has been a real real surprise. 89 00:23:15.450 --> 00:23:35.440 Jack Carter: on a lot of different levels. You know, they're in the same business as Mcdonald's and Burger King, but they cater to an entirely different customer. And just seeing how they're able to raise prices. It's just that's an amazing success story. Cmg really is in this in this economy. But that's how I look at it. I'll I'll I'll use 90 00:23:35.440 --> 00:23:53.730 Jack Carter: stocks that are in trends. I'll go back to the same stock week after week after week, unless the trend is broken. So where every Tuesday I put on that credit spread trade for Friday's expiration. I already know the a short list of stocks I'm going to use, and then, you know stuff that's in a in a real strong down trend 91 00:23:53.750 --> 00:24:26.219 Jack Carter: we find these all the time. And you know, they they just to follow it apart. So so you mentioned something to like. you know, when the trend kind of ends like you, you'll just trade something long, you know, until the turn kind of ends. What what signifies to you an end of the trend? What signifies to me the end of a trend? We'll take a look at Apple, the end of a trend would be where it breaks down, and then is below one or 2 of these trend points, but as long as it stays above this short term trend point that's in green 92 00:24:26.220 --> 00:24:52.589 Jack Carter: and continues moving higher. I'll I'll stay with it. But when this trend breaks down like it did back here. I I will. I'm out. Okay. So you just kind of take bite after bite of the apple. Bite after bite until apple would end its trend based on what you're viewing there. And and I'm and I'm long apple stock, too, and with Apple I I love to sell covered calls on this. This is just like a cover call. Traders dream come true. 93 00:24:52.590 --> 00:25:17.519 Jack Carter: So you know, you can go in here now, sell a a 190 call 1 187 strike price. Call. If you get called out, you make a few couple of shekels and you get to keep that premium. So this is. This is beautiful for that, you know. I I like using a little bit of the stock I'm like, I say, I'm long apple, and then I'm always selling every month. Selling covered calls against it. I'm long. I'm long and video, long. Google. 94 00:25:17.690 --> 00:25:19.450 Jack Carter: yeah. 95 00:25:19.790 --> 00:25:39.950 Jack Carter: great good. Good. Good. Yeah. Good stuff I got long Google with you. Jack, a while back. I remember you were talking about that. That was that's been a I'm gonna get called out of that, you know. I sold the 1 15 strike price calls, and it's at 125. But we lowered our cost basis on that by selling a covered call every month on Google. We got our costs down to 108. 96 00:25:39.950 --> 00:26:07.009 Celeste Lindman: So if I get called out at 1 15, I'm fine with that. That's a nice little sandwich right there, you know. Well, speaking of sandwiches, we keep talking about your thanks, Jack, for sharing all of that appreciate it. I've been talking about sauce and and apples and all kinds of things. Let's hear from you, Roger. AI into the restaurants. So let's keep this. I I I knew we were. Gonna I knew today food was going to be a topic. I'm going to combine AI with food, you know. What's what's better than that? 97 00:26:07.010 --> 00:26:24.890 Roger Scott: So let me first let me first talk a little bit about technicals, because I want to kind of piggy back based on what? What some stuff with the Jack Jack talked about, and kind of. Put a little more context into some of those things. So let me show you guys something interesting. Now, this right here. 98 00:26:24.920 --> 00:26:28.539 Roger Scott: not the bond market. That's not that interesting today. The 99 00:26:29.020 --> 00:26:37.870 Roger Scott: the What I wanted to show you was the excel. K. Sector. First of all, not not the excellent excel. Y. Sorry. Let me go to Xy real quick. 100 00:26:38.900 --> 00:26:46.500 Roger Scott: Well, this excel what excel as well notice, it's making you highs right here. Right now. 101 00:26:48.850 --> 00:26:53.120 Roger Scott: if you look at momentum levels, right now on info tech. 102 00:26:58.330 --> 00:27:04.610 Roger Scott: you will see here, let me just make it a clear view. They're so overdone that that 103 00:27:05.010 --> 00:27:26.780 Roger Scott: the level of stocks make the the stocks or the stocks in the excel. Y excel Ktf are going higher. They're they're the highest level right now. But momentum levels, meaning how many stocks are about the 20 day moving average can't even mustard the previous swing high, so divergence is so bad that even the number of stocks there's like 40 to 60 stocks in there 104 00:27:26.780 --> 00:27:37.870 Roger Scott: there. The number of stocks making a 20 day high can't even muster the numbers. So that means there's a lot less stocks that are causing that momentum. Now keep that, though. Don't keep that thought in mind 105 00:27:38.520 --> 00:27:40.829 Roger Scott: right now we're looking at. Excel. Y 106 00:27:42.400 --> 00:27:46.969 Roger Scott: excel y looks fantastic when you look at it on a chart. 107 00:27:49.070 --> 00:27:54.810 Roger Scott: Looks fantastic. Look at this. Look at this. I mean it. It couldn't look better. Right? Here's the problem with this. 108 00:27:56.940 --> 00:27:58.799 Roger Scott: If you look at momentum levels. 109 00:27:58.960 --> 00:28:14.290 Roger Scott: you'll see that consumer discretionary has less than 50% of stocks below the 50 day moving average and the full and the 20 day moving average. So you're asking yourself, Roger, that that looks like it should be a lot lower. Why is it all the way up there? Well, let me show you why 110 00:28:14.470 --> 00:28:21.109 Roger Scott: 26% of consumer discretionary sector happens to be this one stock right here. 111 00:28:22.800 --> 00:28:26.170 Celeste Lindman: Amazon, 26%. 112 00:28:27.250 --> 00:28:28.370 Roger Scott: So 113 00:28:28.430 --> 00:28:39.479 Roger Scott: when we're talking about a few stocks driving the market, we're literally talking about 6 stocks. Google apple, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon. And though maybe one more, I'm forgetting about Abgo. 114 00:28:39.870 --> 00:28:50.310 Roger Scott: possibly. But the point is, this is what Amazon looks like, and this is what excel y looks like. But if you strip away the market cap, let me show you where. Excel. If you strip away Amazon. 115 00:28:50.500 --> 00:29:01.140 Roger Scott: this is where it should be right now, right here in a flat line, a flat line. Moreover, if you think the Qqq. Looks amazingly bullish right now, I want to show you. This is the equal way to Qq. 116 00:29:01.250 --> 00:29:05.250 Roger Scott: This is the cucumber. When you strip away all the market cap from the big stocks 117 00:29:06.020 --> 00:29:12.080 Roger Scott: there's a little, but it doesn't look anything like the big Qqq. Here's where we're at right now. 118 00:29:12.320 --> 00:29:21.749 Roger Scott: Does that look like to you like a raging bull market? You see, you strip away the market cap you you like saying you're going to go like the Dow Index, and just to go price weighted. 119 00:29:21.970 --> 00:29:51.189 Roger Scott: This is this is an equal weighted. Qq, this is equal weighted. Yeah, it's okay. Yeah. So all stocks. And basically, we're taking those 5 stocks. And we're taking the capital away from, we're spreading it amongst all the others. Okay, but this is what the equal weighted Qq looks like. And this is what the Qqq. Is looking like. So those those 6 stocks are me are are giving people the impression 120 00:29:51.190 --> 00:29:53.529 Roger Scott: that the market is doing. You know. 121 00:29:53.530 --> 00:30:09.680 Roger Scott: it's it's moving parabolic. But it's no, it's not. It's those 6 stocks now. They can huff and puff, but they're not going to blow the house down. It doesn't work that way. The rest of the stocks have to participate. And that's right. Now, now, the other thing that happened is a lot of the market capitalization from sectors like 122 00:30:09.770 --> 00:30:11.350 Roger Scott: health care, for example. 123 00:30:12.540 --> 00:30:30.830 Roger Scott: they've been sucked out and put, you know, cyclical sectors they've been, they've been sucked out. And they've been going into technology technology. I mean. look at the selling pressure. This thing saw everything that this took under the chin went into the into those 6 stocks. How about utilities? Same thing with utilities? 124 00:30:30.930 --> 00:30:34.740 Roger Scott: So right now, what I'm seeing is I'm seeing. 125 00:30:36.160 --> 00:30:41.990 Roger Scott: What I'm seeing is, I'm seeing a lot of sectors really bottoming out like, for example. 126 00:30:42.060 --> 00:30:53.130 Roger Scott: take a look at utilities. This is, this is a good 20 day. Moving average is a is a good swing trading momentum indicator, and this has to be equal, weighted because it just looks at how many are above or below the moving average. 127 00:30:53.570 --> 00:30:54.350 Roger Scott: So 128 00:30:57.700 --> 00:31:01.299 Roger Scott: forget about these squiggly lines. Here, let me get rid of the 129 00:31:04.850 --> 00:31:05.550 Roger Scott: but 130 00:31:06.770 --> 00:31:08.830 Roger Scott: you you look at where we're at. 131 00:31:09.330 --> 00:31:15.319 Roger Scott: I mean that that's utilities about how about the health care? Look at health care. 132 00:31:15.710 --> 00:31:19.730 Roger Scott: Go to. Actually, I'm sorry energies. Look at energies. Health care is already coming up. 133 00:31:20.960 --> 00:31:22.989 Roger Scott: I'll talk about oil in a minute as well. 134 00:31:24.000 --> 00:31:27.230 Roger Scott: This is the energy sector starting to starting to come up again. 135 00:31:27.350 --> 00:31:41.689 Roger Scott: So the point is, there's a lot of sectors right now that are really misaligned because of what we're seeing in the technology like consumer staples, consumer staples. We? We are still in an inflationary environment. Powell lied to us when he said, We're pausing 136 00:31:41.750 --> 00:32:09.239 Roger Scott: teammate. what? What? What? Paul lied? Yeah, yeah, I know it's a shock. But look, look! Look at where momentum momentum went to yesterday, On the consumer staple? So there's a lot of stock. There's a lot of sectors that are really overdone right now to the Downside, and there's a lot of sectors, as I mentioned, that are really overdone to the upside, and, as Jack says, don't fall for the banana in the tail pipe. 137 00:32:09.240 --> 00:32:35.550 Roger Scott: Don't let 6 stocks make you make you think that in the technology stocks are doing all that. And then, brother, I was waiting for you to use that reference. But you know yeah, there's there. Don't just don't, don't fall for it. Momentum like the momentum level. Can't even, I mean, I've never seen divergence in momentum levels that's like that's really out there. That's just really telling you that there's something really wrong there. So So I think that I think I think what we're going to see 138 00:32:35.550 --> 00:32:48.260 Roger Scott: in the next 30 to 45 days, maybe less. I don't. I don't know, because, you know, when it's when we're talking about a reversal, it's a much quicker than to the upside, but I think what we're going to end up seeing is a reversal. We're going to see 139 00:32:48.650 --> 00:33:12.609 Roger Scott: a cool off in these tech and chip stocks, and we're going to see more market cap go into bread and butter. Sectors like healthcare utilities, the stocks that I've been talking about consumer staples. I think that's only normal. Now, what did Powell lie about? I'll tell you guys this is really insulting. I mean, he really he! He's an insulting guy. He pees on our leg and keeps telling us it's raining. I mean, literally every chance he gets 140 00:33:12.690 --> 00:33:21.989 Roger Scott: the So I read the you know, the minutes came out last week, actually earlier this week, or the weeks just run into each other for me. But I think it was end of last week. 141 00:33:22.060 --> 00:33:44.779 Roger Scott: and the minutes really focused on them, saying, We're we're going to keep raising rates. And if we are going to not do anything this time, it's only going to be because we want to wait and see. That's not what he said to us. So you have to wait till the minutes which came out 3 and a half weeks later. But what he said to us, and what the minute said were completely different. He made it sound like, we're pausing because things are getting better. 142 00:33:44.780 --> 00:33:53.710 Roger Scott: But what they said was, we're pausing because we want to see how bad things are. Okay. So so it's there's a big, big, big, big difference. And then 143 00:33:53.710 --> 00:34:13.490 Roger Scott: the rest of the fed for the last 2 weeks I don't know. I followed them daily. I follow what they say every morning in my video they're they're saying, Hey, we're probably gonna raise. And if we're not, we're just gonna wait and see and then add it up. Later on, we the year still has 6 months to go, we would. The the party's not over yet, so so don't think we're going to see a major turnaround at anything yet. And I 144 00:34:13.759 --> 00:34:30.189 Roger Scott: know that that Ted got a little happy because of because of you know what Powell's been saying, and because of the the the and the the earnings on Nvidia and a couple of these stocks. They just got into this momentum factor. But as as Matt, as my assistant, says, it's a news driven market with Tech right now. 145 00:34:31.460 --> 00:34:43.320 Roger Scott: You can't fall for this. Don't fall for this. 146 00:34:43.780 --> 00:34:45.790 Roger Scott: The best advice I can give you. 147 00:34:46.060 --> 00:34:55.190 Roger Scott: When you see a sector run away instead of chasing it. find the weakest stock, like Coulcom, is very weak stock right now. 148 00:34:55.389 --> 00:35:01.819 Roger Scott: Bullcom is a stock that's been taking it under the chin, while the rest of these stocks have been moving higher. 149 00:35:01.840 --> 00:35:10.750 Roger Scott: So my suggestion, the way I would play this is I instead of but instead of chasing the best stock and and hoping you're not the last buyer. 150 00:35:10.790 --> 00:35:12.300 Roger Scott: I would instead 151 00:35:12.530 --> 00:35:14.739 Roger Scott: fade the weakest stock. 152 00:35:15.050 --> 00:35:39.490 Roger Scott: and so, and by puts on this stock or sell calls on this stock, sell calls, or by puts, because the odds are as they go down. The weakest stocks are going to take it under the chin first. That's just how it always works, and Qualcom happens to be one of the weakest ones. There's a few other ones. There's a there's a semi. There's a couple of semiconductor stocks, but this is definitely one of those stocks, so don't go chasing stocks after a huge run up. 153 00:35:39.610 --> 00:35:51.729 Roger Scott: Find the weakest one that barely participated, or just just barely was able to get it up and then short it or do the opposite on the way down. That's how I would deal with things on that and then there. 154 00:35:51.890 --> 00:35:55.810 Roger Scott: Now, now, second thing I wanted to talk about so 155 00:35:56.750 --> 00:36:16.449 Roger Scott: food, food, food, everybody's got food on their mind today, you know. So Friday, Friday, yeah, it's Friday. So I want to read something to you. Now, I know that technology is moving at a very fast pace. But I want you guys here to be honest with me. I know everyone here flies, and, you know, takes airplanes. I know Celeste goes from Indiana to to Jackson this and that 156 00:36:16.490 --> 00:36:42.440 Roger Scott: d don't. Do you guys, what do you guys think about those machines at the airport where you sit down. There's nobody there to take your order. You got to take the ipad and and kind of are you into all that, or I? I just walk past that I can't tolerate it personally. What do you guys think of that? I don't like it. You don't like it, either. What about you? Okay, all right? So everybody's on my, okay, all right. Okay, so we're all on the same page. But I'm gonna I got some bad news for you guys. 157 00:36:42.440 --> 00:36:59.370 Roger Scott: It's not going anywhere. Let me read this to you. This thing is, you know, you know, drive throughs, drive throughs, are never, ever going to be the same again. so artificial intelligence will be taking more orders at fast food drive through as technology takes off Jack in the box. 158 00:36:59.390 --> 00:37:13.199 Roger Scott: A del Taco. They're 1 one chain they're big in on the west side of the country. I don't know if you guys are familiar with they'll talk about. We got a lot of them in California, also Carl's, Jr. Which is hardy here. We have tons of them over there, too. 159 00:37:13.260 --> 00:37:26.560 Roger Scott: They're expanding into voice AI deployment for drive-throughs nationwide. So you're going to see a robot with a with a wig, you know. Try taking your order. Wendy's getting in on it. 160 00:37:26.630 --> 00:37:39.159 Roger Scott: They're partnering with the Google cloud And Mcdonald's is finally getting in on it. So what's the company? That's that's that's putting all this together. Well, here's the company that's driving all this. 161 00:37:39.180 --> 00:37:41.669 Roger Scott: It's called presto automation. 162 00:37:41.750 --> 00:38:02.379 Roger Scott: and it's not an expensive stock, and I know they've been talking about it on Cnn. Cnbc quite a bit. But this program is an enterprise, great AI solution for the nation's biggest hospitality chains. And they have leading industry, leading automation voice. AI technology reduces. Labor costs increases revenue. 163 00:38:02.380 --> 00:38:28.660 Roger Scott: And we're gonna be seeing a lot more of this machine. So now I don't. I'm I'm I'm not a small cap guy. Everyone knows that I'm not into that at all. But But if you guys are looking for a small cap idea to invest in, this may not be the worst idea in the world again. It's it this is. This would be like, buy a hundred shares for 300 bucks, put it away and forget about it for like 5 years and see where it goes. 164 00:38:28.660 --> 00:38:47.030 Roger Scott: But my, my theory, my opinion is they're going to get bought out by a bigger player. I wouldn't be surprised companies like that who are onto something in the AI space, especially right now, when it's really liquid and hot and a lot of investment banks are looking in the AI space. That's like the like. It was like crypto 3 years ago, when everybody wanted the nfts. 165 00:38:47.370 --> 00:38:48.160 Yeah. 166 00:38:48.330 --> 00:39:14.859 Fausto Pugliese: inside the canopy stocks. You know, it's it's it's it's a phase. But you'll get back to your thing. I'm I'm glad you brought that up about. You know about the the tablets and stuff like that with AI. You know, it's both. It is. It's the Labor Department, you know, that people realize like you know, what not to worry about paying insurance. So I got to worry about getting sued. You don't got to worry about, you know people coming in late and don't worry about so like. You know what it kind of makes sense, and you know they do it. You have nobody complaining. 167 00:39:15.000 --> 00:39:40.770 Jack Carter: you know. It'll make a lot more sense when it can tell me what I want to order. I don't see the intelligence in it, so it's like a megaphone to me they got for that, too, Jack. Soon they'll be able to do voice, I mean visual recognition, and they'll pull up your last 10 orders and tell you exactly what you want. That's like that's that's that's that's like 3 months away. That's like the next upgrade man. If you thought of it, they've already. 168 00:39:40.930 --> 00:39:52.770 Roger Scott: It's scary. I I'm not. See. Here's the thing. If it worked the way it's going to work in 10 years I'd be up for it. But we're like guinea pigs right now, and I feel like we're I. I feel like those self check out 169 00:39:52.830 --> 00:40:14.249 Roger Scott: supermarkets where I am like always stuck waiting for 15 min for somebody to come and help me check out the right way. And I'm like, why, what am I doing here? That's how I feel about this, because, you know, one time my wife and I. We were late for a plane. We filled out that thing. We were waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting. And then we found out they never got our order. So it's like when it's works it. It's great. But I I have a lot of reservations. 170 00:40:14.250 --> 00:40:26.290 Roger Scott: The the last thing I want to get into seasonality. But before I get into seasonality I wanted to just quickly talk about another topic. One of the things I look at is I look for news to hit us an industry. 171 00:40:26.300 --> 00:40:36.900 Roger Scott: and and I look to see usually what happens is like stock will get downgraded. Earnings will come out But I I I'm curious how it will echo throughout the industry, and 172 00:40:36.930 --> 00:40:46.149 Roger Scott: I'm seeing some I'm seeing some rattling here advanced auto parts came out with earnings last week, and the the company did awful. I mean they 173 00:40:46.150 --> 00:41:15.079 Roger Scott: they did really really bad, I mean, like, when I say, really really bad, I mean horrible. they they this the stock went down. I think 35% in one day. It was a it was a it got crushed. Well, I missed out on it. I, my assistant, didn't listen to me and shorten, and not in enough time. I'm just kidding around, but we we could when it when I missed a trade. It's always his fault, you know, when I get a trade it's always my fault. You know how these things go so but but anyhow, 174 00:41:15.080 --> 00:41:34.470 Roger Scott: I'm I'm I'm nervous about O'reilly auto zone car, Max, and automation. And I think those stocks are going to start meeting the same. Faith, I think what happened was these companies had a big run up due to the supply chain issues with with Covid, and I think now that these supply chain issues are resolving themselves 175 00:41:34.490 --> 00:41:59.619 Roger Scott: the numbers that these companies have different type of supply chain issues. And I also think there's not as big of a demand for used cars, which is one of the reasons why Carvana is struggling now compared to how they were doing so. I think we're now seeing the opposite side of what we saw during Covid, and I'm very fearful that this is going to reflect in the earnings on early autozone car, Max and other companies. 176 00:41:59.680 --> 00:42:07.559 Roger Scott: So be very, very, very, very, very, very careful on that. Now, before I let everybody go for the weekend, I just want to show you 177 00:42:07.710 --> 00:42:09.920 Roger Scott: the seasonality for next week. 178 00:42:09.990 --> 00:42:24.040 Roger Scott: can you see? My, can you see my seasonality chart guys? Okay, great. So this is the seasonality for next week. This is from the This is from next week's start. So let's see, third is Saturday, the fifth fifth through. 179 00:42:24.160 --> 00:42:27.560 Roger Scott: So it's right here. It's the it's kind of right here, and you could see that 180 00:42:28.070 --> 00:42:40.909 Roger Scott: it's it's bad. Seasonality is not good most around. Now. I've been doing this now for about 2 months, and you know, honestly, it's been kind of mixed. It's been a mixed bag. This is the first week 181 00:42:41.420 --> 00:43:02.729 Roger Scott: for next week that I'm seeing a very I'm seeing a I'm not I I just can't find anything bullish, so I've increased my short exposure. I've I'm trying to eliminate as much as much speculative. I still really like the bread and butter stocks like the consumer staples the healthcare. But I'm trying to lower my exposure and start 182 00:43:02.730 --> 00:43:24.140 Roger Scott: increasing my short exposure. We've taken 3, 4 short positions just the last few days. I know. Celeste took a short position today in one of her programs. But I'm starting to see some downside coming into the market. I think the the happiness from this debt ceiling fiasco is going to cool off. There's not. There's earnings are behind us. June typically is not 183 00:43:24.140 --> 00:43:40.360 Roger Scott: the best month. So I I think I think I think we? Maybe we may be doing some put calendar spreads. or we may just kinda cool off on the long side of the market for a few days. But I wanted you guys to have this so you could see exactly what's going on and what's happening. 184 00:43:40.360 --> 00:44:04.619 Celeste Lindman: That's all I've got today. Sorry I took so long. But I had a lot to say as usual. Well, we were just eating while we were listening to you, so we were having a good time. No, but yeah, that's I love that seasonality when you bring that in. And yeah, you're right. That's kind of the way I was seeing this market playing out here a little bit here these first weeks of June. Well, let's keep our food topic going. Jeffrey Smith. What's going on with? What's the beef, you know. Where is it? 185 00:44:04.630 --> 00:44:08.320 Roger Scott: Yeah. 186 00:44:08.450 --> 00:44:27.100 Geof Smith: I think most people have kind of seen the price of beef in the grocery stores go a little higher. even going over to grab a no steak or a hamburger somewhere. It's gotten a whole lot more expensive. And because of that, you always get to thinking. You know, there's always gotta be a why somewhere. So I started kind of digging a lot of things up 187 00:44:27.210 --> 00:44:54.559 Geof Smith: this past week, just trying to figure out how things were painting out along the neat industry. one thing we still, I mean, I've talked about this many a time, but we still are having some drought problems over there in Kansas and Nebraska and Western Oklahoma right now. which is where a lot of the no cattle that we're no constant concentrate on. I'll put it that way. are coming out of so But on the other side of that, if there's 188 00:44:54.560 --> 00:45:06.140 Geof Smith: drops there, that means there's not enough pasture to feed the no, the the herds that are there. But you also get into a problem of okay. Now I got to feed them. So I got to go get, hey? 189 00:45:06.330 --> 00:45:31.410 Geof Smith: Well, the problem is with that is the price of hey is real expensive. In fact, right now the price of hey is no almost as high as it was back by 2,01314 whenever that drive was over in Texas, And it's gotten very, very expensive. we've seen the price of, hey? No per ton head up, And then you think, well, okay, so this go throw them into a feedlot because I can't feed them on here. 190 00:45:31.440 --> 00:45:46.200 Geof Smith: Well, now, you get the price of corn. That's up right. We've seen that over the no, since 2020, or whatever it is, everything's just kind of shot up. Now we've had some softening, and prices don't get me wrong in corn. It's off of its highs. But we're still a whole lot more expensive. 191 00:45:46.450 --> 00:45:52.260 Geof Smith: so you kind of start coupling all that up. And you're thinking, okay, well. 192 00:45:52.280 --> 00:46:04.369 Geof Smith: now, what I mean, you you gotta feed them something. So and that's where we're really running into an issue. and one thing I've been kind of concentrating on saying, Okay, well. 193 00:46:04.500 --> 00:46:21.279 Geof Smith: we still got to feed them at least corner alfal for no timothy or or something. and so I've started to kind of dig into that a little bit and come to find out. Well, if we're not going to be planning as much corn. That means we're not going to have as much seed, or we're still going to have. 194 00:46:21.280 --> 00:46:36.779 Geof Smith: No, it's it's just a a snowball effect here, and that's that's where I think we're we're really running to in in the meat industry right now is trying to kind of balance that out, trying to figure out. Hey, how much? Before we actually going to have 195 00:46:36.780 --> 00:47:04.390 Geof Smith: The the biggest. Another issue that we're having with our beef is that we know we export a lot of our beef. So there's kind of that drag there, but when you go to the corn side you don't just use corn for feed. You use corn for our consumption, use corn for ethanols. so what corn is going to be used for? What? And they're going to have to try to figure that one out as well. Do we want to kind of decrease. What's going to the ethanol to feed the no cows or the heck with the cows? We need to gas. I mean, there it is. 196 00:47:04.500 --> 00:47:32.539 Geof Smith: And so I started going in saying, Okay, well, then, if that's the case, we ought to see some decrease in production cost. Well, I mean, or just production itself. Well, yeah, I mean, you look at our beef production or be productions down about 11% over last year. Okay, there's there's that one you start looking at. No slaughter, no count down is down 10% Even the placements are down about 4 right now, which placements are going into feed lots. So 197 00:47:33.050 --> 00:47:34.300 Geof Smith: when I saw that 198 00:47:34.400 --> 00:47:47.189 Geof Smith: it was a drop, but it wasn't as big as the other production numbers, and I got to thinking. Well, they already took a lot of their cattle to the Feedlots last year, because they already had the droughts. Now do they have them this year where you're putting lower weights into the feed lots. 199 00:47:47.390 --> 00:48:15.089 Geof Smith: Well, usually, when you're putting in a 600 800 pound, no cow into the feed lot, it doesn't take long for them to get up to slaughter. Wait. Well, now, you're putting in 400 500 pound cattle, and there's going to take them 3 or 4 months to get to slaughter weight as opposed to one or 2 months into slaughter weight. And now there the feed blocks are getting overly full. So even though we've had placements down, there's still full enough from the the smaller cows getting into bigger cows for the slaughter. It's just a 200 00:48:15.090 --> 00:48:20.579 Geof Smith: it's just getting into a mess. Basically, if you just do the overall. 201 00:48:20.580 --> 00:48:44.030 Geof Smith: look at things here. Nope, beef prices are moving higher. And so report prices, and more than likely we're just going to be seeing those prices move up for the next couple of months. So if you're looking for a bullish market, Just go look at cows, and you'd be fine. There it is. Another thing is, if you start going over into go go, go, go back to no corn here real quickly. 202 00:48:44.330 --> 00:48:50.810 Geof Smith: The the price for rent of the farm is at a a a huge high as well. 203 00:48:50.830 --> 00:49:02.400 Geof Smith: right now we're this going for in Iowa, going for around 280 bucks an acre. and people think, well, 280 bucks an acre is pretty big little size, right? 204 00:49:02.480 --> 00:49:26.219 Geof Smith: What you think about that corn? you can usually get somewhere around about 100, and I don't know 7,200 7,580 bushels of corn per acre out of corn. and I'll save you all the math. You can make about 475 bucks an acre. How's that? So if you're thinking, $475 an acre of this kind of jumping up school 100 acres here 205 00:49:26.280 --> 00:49:56.189 Geof Smith: you got 27,000 28,000 in cost to rent the land, and you're going to make 47,000 gross. That's gross. So now I'm only making 20 grand off the thing. And then I got to put all the inputs into it, not going to use all the equipment, whatever else is going from there. So who wants to make 10,000 bucks in, you know, over a hundred acres? You put a section out there. Okay, there's 640 acres. So when you look at that section, if you're, you know, having to lease that, you're spending 180, Grand Elisa. 206 00:49:56.280 --> 00:50:10.729 Geof Smith: that's a lot of money, especially if you're only going to make 280 grand when you're going to farm thing that's gross. So the the rents are really really high, which might deter a lot of those. No farmers out there from even renting anything. 207 00:50:10.810 --> 00:50:19.330 Geof Smith: I would rather not own the land and get all that money myself as opposed to try to lease it out, and of course the least, or is going to no 208 00:50:19.430 --> 00:50:39.760 Geof Smith: make money off of it, regardless if they don't want to do any farming, but the Lee see is not going to make very much, so there's going to be probably a decrease in the number of leases going out there for all those crops. That's my point. which again gets into decrease of no number of crops that are out there, which is decrease of food and decrease of no food for ken. All that stuff. 209 00:50:39.870 --> 00:50:56.050 Geof Smith: So I mean, this isn't just a a real quick one getting at. It's not real quick question of, why is cattle going up? You gotta kind of look at everything here. And you know I probably would have looked at a lot of other things. But no, I got kind of short notice on this thing. 210 00:50:56.050 --> 00:51:13.609 Geof Smith: And so I thought, well, this is what I've been doing this week. This is kind of what I do. I kind of pick something and say, Why is this going down? Why is this going up? And I start digging into it all. And so when you start looking at all of those you know, the my guess is is like the con Aggres are going to be going down. 211 00:51:13.610 --> 00:51:31.549 Geof Smith: you're probably gonna have weaker con agra. I mean, there's not going to be as many inputs as they're going to be wanting to the seeds are probably going to be there. They're not gonna have that many se's so my guess the Con aggress will be moving down You'll probably see. No, the the Et and Cal continue to move higher. 212 00:51:31.760 --> 00:51:38.589 Geof Smith: so I mean, I'm more of a futures trader I've been, I mean, here I've been trading 213 00:51:38.840 --> 00:51:41.689 Geof Smith: this live cattle chart. Yeah, it is okay. 214 00:51:42.730 --> 00:51:44.359 Geof Smith: Make sure I have that right? 215 00:51:44.680 --> 00:51:48.949 Geof Smith: So this is a a, a daily chart of live cattle. 216 00:51:49.160 --> 00:52:03.749 Geof Smith: and you'll notice over here on the left side this kind of ranks, things by percent moves from open and this is going to be based off your month. Open right now, but you'll notice at the very, very top of this list you have lean hogs, live cattle, and feeder cattle. 217 00:52:03.890 --> 00:52:32.759 Geof Smith: There the meets are going up right? So I mean, that's just telling you right there. I mean, I've been kind of seeing these things pegging here, and you'll notice here on a daily chart, I mean, cattle's gone from a a dollar 53 a pound, or 153 on the 100 weight. No, up here to a dollar 72, and that's just literally over the past. No month and a half 2 months. So you've had a huge increase just in the price of beef just in the past month month and a half. 218 00:52:32.760 --> 00:52:43.870 Geof Smith: people are gonna be trying to figure out, you know. Why isn't that steak so expensive. You know, I was getting that for 7 bucks a pound. Now, it's no $19 a pound. Well, yeah, that's just what it's gonna be 219 00:52:43.920 --> 00:53:08.870 Geof Smith: and you're seeing this a lot. I was. I've been buying, I mean, literally $4 widespreads on live cattle and picking up 50% on the spread and just getting out and just going out and driving another spread. And then I thought, Well, why not try to get a hundred percent on the thing. So I've been trying to get him in about a dollar 30 and get out around 2, no. 60 to 65. And that's been working real well. 220 00:53:09.020 --> 00:53:26.250 Geof Smith: and the the options work the same and futures as it does in equities. The problem that you run into is It's the price per point. This different. You can actually controlling 40,000 pounds and live cattle of of 221 00:53:26.250 --> 00:53:45.280 Geof Smith: live cattle. And if you get delivered and you go to Kansas City and pick them up if you want to. I don't think you really want to do that. But anyway, Lean Hoggs is is actually not a commodity. It's actually just a financially settled contract. So you're not going to get any pigs. if you want to trade leading hogs. They've been 222 00:53:45.280 --> 00:54:00.190 Geof Smith: really kind of stuck, though they can't get above 85 cents, and they really won't get below about 79 cents a pound so I wouldn't be touching lean hog so much right now. But your feeders have corrected back, but they've been in a really strong move up as well. 223 00:54:00.350 --> 00:54:10.060 Geof Smith: But I think your live cattle is probably the one that's going to be wanting to kind of look at at this point in time, because they're starting to really focus on what's out in the past year? Not necessarily. What's at the feed lot. 224 00:54:10.120 --> 00:54:28.959 Geof Smith: And if they're starting to see no, the droughts will they come in, and the pastors can't get no rain to feed the cattle. Then it's gonna either, you know, going to be deteriorating the herd that much more. And I think that's why you're seeing lives going up just because you're going to want to sell them to some place that can raise them. 225 00:54:29.000 --> 00:54:58.909 Celeste Lindman: And I think the price of those are starting to head higher on there as well. So good to know. Well, Jeff, you mentioned a couple of interesting things that you? You mentioned that we're talking about the commodities you talk about, you trading in the future. You talked about options and equities, because I know from being around you a long time. You use this knowledge to not only trade, the futures and the commodities, but you use this knowledge to trade, the equities to, and you particularly have a real knack for trading some options, and I just happen to know that you've been doing. 226 00:54:58.910 --> 00:55:14.420 Geof Smith: It's pretty good on some options, and I wonder if you could share some of that with us. 227 00:55:14.530 --> 00:55:15.520 Geof Smith: Awesome. 228 00:55:15.680 --> 00:55:32.570 Geof Smith: And so I and I like doing the same thing. I'm I'm still in his camp. I'm more of just no selling naked, no puts for sale, and they could call. See if they get it. No, no, give it to me. You can get more premium that way, but a lot of people can't do that. So 229 00:55:32.670 --> 00:55:43.830 Geof Smith: I've got a service that It's a it's a itty, bitty little service. I'll put it that way. And it's something that I do once a month, at the beginning of every month. And here 230 00:55:44.060 --> 00:55:46.139 Geof Smith: I think I've got something for that 231 00:55:46.160 --> 00:56:07.269 Celeste Lindman: just real quickly. I know we we got to do. No, ask the pros premium here. Yes. And why are you finding that, too, we got Uncle Roger. You have an event coming up here at 1 30. Right, Roger. Oh, let me tell you something. I'm going to be showing people how to use my mean mean indicator. It's it's a mean indicator. It's a perfect time in today's Vip room. We show people several trades. 232 00:56:07.270 --> 00:56:32.270 Roger Scott: I actually looked at your short trade through the that indicator today, and it and it mustard it passed the mustard. It it fit. I'll be talking about it in 30 min, if if anybody has the link, please post it so. Adam, do you have the link? I'm sure Adam has a link. He has links for everything. We'll get him posted. Yeah, we're gonna post it in as the pros premium, too. So but thank you, I appreciate that, but it's happening in one. 233 00:56:32.270 --> 00:56:46.600 Celeste Lindman: It's going to be a great class. Can't wait to see everybody there, and it's all meat and potatoes. No, Fluff, no monkey business. None of that stuff. You get it. Great education. 234 00:56:46.600 --> 00:56:52.800 Geof Smith: Yeah. Thanks. Okay, Jeff, so. But before we go this little program called Twelvex Trader. 235 00:56:53.000 --> 00:56:58.059 Geof Smith: like, I said. Once a month, at the beginning of every month. I start looking to know. 236 00:56:58.250 --> 00:57:21.209 Geof Smith: Make it create. I'll put it that way. What we're looking to do in this program is I try to sell premium whether it be call spreads, put spreads. It doesn't matter, and I usually will do a spread just to keep the no, the the margin required to hold the thing at at a very, very small amount, as opposed to a large amount. On some of these stocks. So 237 00:57:21.310 --> 00:57:35.689 Geof Smith: that will put in the email. all the instructions. What we're selling to open what we're no buying to open when to close out the position. What the risk is of the trade. and there it is. 238 00:57:35.850 --> 00:57:58.049 Geof Smith: but it's a it's a neat little program. We've out of 24 trades I've lost to. I apologize for that, but it's not so bad. I mean, there's there's always risk and trading in there, and everything. and there's ways of managing these things that you can do. But this is just no 239 00:57:58.050 --> 00:58:21.349 Geof Smith: sell it. Close your eyes, go on vacation, come back and see how you do. This is kind of how those results are. but I do. I trade not only Ets, but I trade stocks. It all just depends on what's out there and who's doing what? Where? I'm I like the commodity side of things. You'll see a lot of usos and glds and things like that. But that's okay. It's just kind of what I watch. 240 00:58:21.370 --> 00:58:36.260 Geof Smith: But it is. It's a real neat way of just going out selling premium you choose. You know how many contracts you want to do that's totally up to you. You can do it on a very, very small account or a large account. Just so you can do some spreads. 241 00:58:36.260 --> 00:58:59.159 Geof Smith: we also get. I got a master class in our members area this kind of goes through, how I go to no choose an option. Why, I choose what I'm doing, looking at no strength and weaknesses, support and resistance. And I always try to sell no options below support areas or so. No above resistance areas, just to, you know. Make sure that the market really can't get there. 242 00:58:59.420 --> 00:59:06.090 Geof Smith: we'll also have other educational things. And this is what I want to get to, because, 243 00:59:06.760 --> 00:59:22.810 Geof Smith: yours truly, Celeste is in here. But Tom, actually has 3 books. I don't know if you've read it winning the day. Trading game, in my opinion, is the best of the 3 And the reason for that is you actually get to see how he actually became a trader. 244 00:59:22.950 --> 00:59:30.439 Geof Smith: really, how it you know, trading is really his, you know. 245 00:59:30.540 --> 00:59:39.400 Geof Smith: and what was that guy's name? you guys might know it. Lewis. is it Perino Lewis? Barcelona 246 00:59:39.590 --> 01:00:02.220 Geof Smith: Lewis Parcelino? Maybe he was a pit guy. He actually had a book called The From the Pit to the PC. It was really really interesting. He was actually an S. And pit trader, and he actually had to leave that and go to just trading off the PC. And that books kind of interesting just to see the battle. Of course, nowadays everything's on the PC. Right. Who cares? 247 01:00:02.220 --> 01:00:28.480 Geof Smith: but man back to the end? It was really pretty cool, but that's the same thing Tom went through is trying to trade that way and go into electronic trading and know what he had to start looking at to try to gain the upper edge. It's really, really a neat series of books, if you want to kind of get into Tom. And of course this is the one I was just talking about Celeste here. There's a thing in our numbers area called understandable options. And it's a 15 video series on literally walking you through 248 01:00:28.590 --> 01:00:43.399 Geof Smith: how not only what options are but strategies behind options and how to trade those options. It's really really a neat you know. I guess series to help you understand how options actually work? 249 01:00:43.580 --> 01:01:02.799 Geof Smith: and of course, every the first Tuesday of every month. Now, I like to have a full week. If I have a partial week. I don't like trading during that week, so I always look to look for the first full week of the month And then on that Tuesday. We'll look to see that that spread, and we'll be getting out on Friday, because it's a weekly option. 250 01:01:02.980 --> 01:01:08.360 Geof Smith: and if you want to do this you can do it with me for a dollar a month 251 01:01:08.400 --> 01:01:11.080 Geof Smith: for 12 months, or $12 252 01:01:11.090 --> 01:01:20.279 Geof Smith: and so your first trade ought to pay for the whole 12 bucks, and then you can make money the rest of the year very easily. 253 01:01:20.280 --> 01:01:43.889 Roger Scott: That's crazy. That's a dollar. I love it. I but I wasn't sure that was right. It's not real. Folks go to Dti trader.com forward slash before Jeff figures out that he could be money on this on this deal. This is crazy, Jeff. I'm I gotta get in this. It's a missing little thing, but I hope you all enjoyed it. You can also call (904) 416-1776, 254 01:01:43.930 --> 01:01:50.759 Geof Smith: and 255 01:01:50.950 --> 01:02:08.859 Roger Scott: hey, it's cheaper than lunch. This is a deal. This is a deal. Folks don't have that hamburger don't even think, just do it. Just just do it before it's over $12. You could have charge for this, and people would sign up. This is. This is fantastic. It is a lifetime, Jim, that's lifetime. 256 01:02:09.070 --> 01:02:34.840 Celeste Lindman: Yeah, this is really great stuff. This is. Adam says he's in, stole the babysitter's money, but you all join up. But we'll have a lot of fun together if you have any questions. Of course you can email support at Dti Figure or me also, and we will help you out in any way we can. I know that as the pros premium is starting in less than one 257 01:02:34.840 --> 01:02:54.999 Geof Smith: minute. So, Celeste, you need to bug out, and I guess you as well. I'm going to head out. But thanks everybody. I'm going to head out there to ask for 258 01:02:55.550 --> 01:02:56.410 Geof Smith: thanks.