Jeffry Turnmire told us that it took him years to learn the lesson that the news might get all the attention, but it doesn’t make the charts. Focusing on levels and ignoring the headlines will let you tune out all the noise and trade successfully.
Scott Welsh echoed Jeffry’s sentiments, telling us that he started out as a fundamental trader, reading all the Warren Buffett books. And the one lesson he took from all of that is that you can save a lot of time if you just learn a simple technical trading system based on rules. He even showed us his Weinstein approach and gave us a slew of setups that look promising.
Meanwhile, Roger Scott believes that current market conditions are similar to those in 1999, just before the dot-com bubble burst. He warned that investors to be cautious and to not get too caught up in the hype of certain stocks or sectors.
He also posed an intereting question to viewers: “What if there was a way to get exactly the option you want at half the price — and reducing your risk by 50% or more?” If you’re intrigued, he wants you to check out his brand new training class: Discount Options Unlocked. You’ll get over 3 hours of live, interactive training & he’ll even issue a trade alert LIVE in class. Don’t miss this. Grab Discount options Unlocked by clicking here.
On this week’s show: Roger Scott, Jeffry Turnmire and Scott Welsh.
Prefer to read this episode? Click below,
Show transcripts are auto-generated by computer, so they won’t be perfect.
If something doesn’t make sense, you can skip to the timestamp in the video above to hear it. Questions? Drop us a line.
►Click To View This Episode's Transcript◄1 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:01.200 Scott Welsh: How are you? 2 00:00:01.830 --> 00:00:21.190 Celeste Lindman: I'm great glad to see Scott, too. I don't get to see him that often. Yeah, it is always great. Well, Well, we've got to get. We've got to get Roger here in the room. Hey, sars, how are you doing? Ken you got to get Roger in the room who let him take a break. 3 00:00:21.190 --> 00:00:35.820 Celeste Lindman: We we'll have to talk about him behind his back until he gets here, so No, but a lot of things, you know. Hey, what do you think, Jeffrey and Scott, while we're getting started here? You know, as your own power came out and spoke. And markets, you know up and down. What do you think so far about that? 4 00:00:36.680 --> 00:00:38.610 Jeffry Turnmire: Well, I mean 5 00:00:38.770 --> 00:00:43.000 Jeffry Turnmire: the Nasdaq did exactly what I've been looking for in the past couple of weeks. We are right at the level. 6 00:00:43.080 --> 00:00:53.320 Jeffry Turnmire: and you know we held there all night, right? The the top end of my expect target. And then Jerome PAL starts talking and we pull back. 7 00:00:53.520 --> 00:01:03.050 Jeffry Turnmire: It's almost like classic, you know, Like what came first. Was it Drone PAL? Or was it the markers reaction to the levels. I mean, I have a hard time 8 00:01:03.080 --> 00:01:19.420 Jeffry Turnmire: really distinguish in between the 2 when it comes out and the market reacts to news like. Was it the news that made the reaction, or was it the chart that was ready to react to whatever news hit? I mean it's, you know. It's really a thing, and 9 00:01:19.430 --> 00:01:23.760 Jeffry Turnmire: i'll talk about the seasonality, and how this all plays into when we get more into 10 00:01:23.940 --> 00:01:38.200 Jeffry Turnmire: my my segment here perfect, perfect. Well, yeah, and this was talking about. You know, the before everybody got here to everybody that was here in the room. You know those levels are so important in that 4,200 level, and how we pulled right back to that 4,200 on the S. And P. Futures. 11 00:01:38.220 --> 00:01:57.210 Roger Scott: and I know it's a different level on the spy, so and so forth. But looking at those key levels that you like you're talking about Jeffrey. So, key. So let's get this going. Hey, Roger! Welcome! Hello, everyone! Hey, Jeffrey Celeste! Hey, Scott, how are you guys? Sorry i'm a few minutes late. I was finishing up my vip room, but so glad to be here and happy. Friday. Everyone 12 00:01:57.210 --> 00:02:26.220 Celeste Lindman: happy. Friday. We're glad you here. We'll let you slide a little bit. There, Rogers. So let's get this thing going. Let's find out something. Scott. I want to hear from you, too. I'm gonna start with you first. Got here. But first of all, you know, as with the every week. There are a lot of headlines, and we could unpack all of them. But week after week, what we're here to do we want to increase our understanding, and how we can take advantage of headlines like what even just happened with Jerome Powell in these markets, using knowledge. In other words, how do we pull the trigger? How do we manage risk? How do we do all that? 13 00:02:26.220 --> 00:02:33.260 Celeste Lindman: So today we want to talk about equipping you and empowering you. Now, you know there are no guarantees in the market. 14 00:02:33.260 --> 00:03:02.630 Celeste Lindman: and we are not making any guarantees. There is plenty of risk. You've experienced it. You know it. We're talking about it. It is your responsibility to make sure you understand whatever you are trading before you click that mouse, because your money is at risk. You can lose a little bit. You can lose a lot of it. I know about both. So let's get going. And with with all that guys all the headlines. Scott, let's start with you first. You know we've got, you know, a Hawkish fed. We just heard about them. We've got debt ceiling going on fights 15 00:03:02.690 --> 00:03:13.530 Celeste Lindman: between Republicans and Democrats. On that we've got earnings. We got the Nasdaq dream team, you know. Forget about everything. So, Scott, where is your focus right now, and why? 16 00:03:14.330 --> 00:03:29.900 Scott Welsh: Well, we've talked about it a couple of times on premium, and and when we've gotten together with all of our friends and bear markets last up on the average. How long? About 9 and a half months? So we're well past that right? So 17 00:03:29.900 --> 00:03:43.950 Scott Welsh: that number one is in the back of my mind again. It's just an average. It can last as long as it wants to last. I get it. But when I hear something like that, and it feels like oh, we've been in a bear market for so long. Number one. That's on the top of my mind. 18 00:03:44.510 --> 00:03:51.410 Scott Welsh: and then you to add in you. Look at the charts, you look at the narrow ranges, and then you also look at the breathless headlines every day. 19 00:03:51.540 --> 00:04:03.870 Scott Welsh: No one. We've been in a bear market for a while, and the market is going to crash 50%. And then another person know it's going to crash 25, but maybe for over and over and over again. I mean it's bearish parish. 20 00:04:04.220 --> 00:04:10.470 Scott Welsh: That is always Hmm. If everyone's bearish and we've been in a bear market for a long time. 21 00:04:10.590 --> 00:04:18.459 Scott Welsh: Huh! What's might happen? What my turn! And then, of course, a couple of days ago Steve Cohen came out and said he's Bullish 22 00:04:18.470 --> 00:04:20.060 Scott Welsh: and Steve Cohen 23 00:04:20.200 --> 00:04:22.960 Scott Welsh: no stuff right? I mean 24 00:04:23.090 --> 00:04:37.270 Scott Welsh: wink, anyway, so i'd like a little bit of bullish. I don't want too much, because i'd love to see it explode. But, Generally speaking, I just feel like everyone is waiting for an excuse. I think the debt ceiling is a lousy excuse, but I think it's an excuse. 25 00:04:37.360 --> 00:04:54.140 Scott Welsh: and I feel like, you know, today, not withstanding in the last hour or so I feel like traders are ready. So for me. How long we've been in the bear market. How bearish are all the experts, and then go right to the charts. 26 00:04:54.210 --> 00:05:06.800 Roger Scott: My focus right now is actually very defensive. I believe that a lot of what we've seen specifically the last week is a is it our our algorithm. Manipulations? I think we are about to reverse course 27 00:05:06.890 --> 00:05:20.420 Roger Scott: and moving the other direction. And I think today I'm going to show you why. Interestingly, Scott, it it started even before you mentioned it, because, remember, the small caps started started getting into a recessionary environment about a year before the large caps did so. If you 28 00:05:20.420 --> 00:05:39.750 Scott Welsh: I just wanted to to, to, to just add another year to what you were. So it's been. It has been a while, I mean. Look at. Look at Arc. Look at Look at when Kathy started getting bearish. That's really when it started. The small caps always start first, so I I I think it's even been longer than you've been saying, but I don't know if it's been. 29 00:05:39.920 --> 00:05:41.760 Roger Scott: See, i'm not so sure. 30 00:05:41.860 --> 00:05:54.820 Roger Scott: If all of that period qualifies under the typical recessionary or or inflationary period, I I think I think, may only, maybe in the last 6 months we really started hitting that 31 00:05:54.820 --> 00:06:11.050 Roger Scott: where where the trajectories really moving south in terms of fed data and earning news, because earnings. Revisions only started about 9 months ago. So I do feel that technically you're right. But if you look at the small caps, it even it started way below that. So you're You're even more right than you than you 32 00:06:11.050 --> 00:06:17.860 Roger Scott: then, you know. But I I I think right now I again it, and i'll again, pig it back on what Scott says it. 33 00:06:18.150 --> 00:06:20.880 Roger Scott: I think a lot of folks have been 34 00:06:20.980 --> 00:06:38.500 Roger Scott: either looking for a big rally or for a big sell off, I think, and i'm going to continue to be in this in this boat. I think the market, I think that the highest likelihood is the market not doing anything. We've actually seen a lot more evidence of that volatility on the dow. Jones. Let me just show you this. This is this is a cool little chart. 35 00:06:38.500 --> 00:06:41.650 Roger Scott: I'll show you this very, very quickly before I even get into anything 36 00:06:41.800 --> 00:06:49.420 Roger Scott: today. But just to kind of give you an idea of what I what i'm talking about. Look at the dow, Jones, right. This is the Dow Jones 37 00:06:49.450 --> 00:06:54.930 Roger Scott: and i'm just going to put one indicator on this. I'm going to put the atr on it. 38 00:06:57.470 --> 00:07:03.750 Roger Scott: and nothing else. And if you take a look at this, let me just delete this one here. 39 00:07:04.030 --> 00:07:11.180 Roger Scott: If you delete this, and if you look at the volatility. let me make this a little smaller. So everybody could see this. 40 00:07:14.140 --> 00:07:17.940 Roger Scott: Okay, here we go. So let's go. So 41 00:07:18.050 --> 00:07:25.130 Roger Scott: right here right around here, the volatility on the Dow Jones. The movement was 727 points per day. 42 00:07:25.240 --> 00:07:26.330 Roger Scott: on average. 43 00:07:26.590 --> 00:07:45.270 Roger Scott: and then it kind of peaks out again here at 6 70. We went all the way from about 749 points on the dial and Everybody here is going. Yeah, I remember those days. We're now at about 360. So volatility on the dow has declined in half, and notice this trading action right here, the sideways. 44 00:07:45.840 --> 00:07:59.080 Roger Scott: And so when you have volatility, but you don't have a lot of directional bias it it it tends to be more of a chopping, non-eventful market. So for where i'm sitting, I'm. Seeing a lot more boring, defensive lackluster market 45 00:07:59.080 --> 00:08:15.070 Roger Scott: right after these 6 stocks that have been taking us higher, revert back, which are the thanks stocks, and i'll talk about that in depth when I do my segment. But i'm seeing more choppiness, more consolidation, and a very boring summer. That's what i'm seeing. Boring can be Very good. 46 00:08:15.070 --> 00:08:31.160 Celeste Lindman: Jeffrey. You were talking when we first got started about levels and things that you were watching, and but back to the question, too, with you know all the headlines, Everything that's going on with that can be distracting and trading. Do you have anything to add to You know. Where is your focus? 47 00:08:31.370 --> 00:08:40.890 Jeffry Turnmire: Well, I mean, right now. I was focused on Nasdaq rallying to the August high, and that happened yesterday. We got to that level we kind of poked up through it. 48 00:08:40.929 --> 00:08:46.540 Jeffry Turnmire: and we've stopped there. I mean, that was kind of what I expected happen, and 49 00:08:46.800 --> 00:08:51.610 Jeffry Turnmire: that kind of level. So what's the focus now is on waiting for the next 50 00:08:51.710 --> 00:08:56.380 Jeffry Turnmire: high probability setup? We had a high probability setup for that Nasdaq to rally to that level 51 00:08:56.730 --> 00:08:58.130 Jeffry Turnmire: Once we got there. 52 00:08:58.450 --> 00:09:17.220 Jeffry Turnmire: there's not there's not another. The next thing is not clear. That's that's key for me right now, and S. And P. 500 has been lagging. It was not participating in that rally. It has opportunity to catch up, but it's not a high probability setup to catch up it doesn't have to. These are a lot of things that 53 00:09:17.680 --> 00:09:32.460 Jeffry Turnmire: people don't seem to necessarily grasp is that oh, Nasdaq, Rally Sp. Has to go to No, it doesn't, even though 2 major components of NASA, Microsoft and Apple make up what it you know like 13, you know, whatever 54 00:09:32.620 --> 00:09:36.270 Jeffry Turnmire: you know, double digit percentage of the S. And P. 500. 55 00:09:36.570 --> 00:09:41.340 Jeffry Turnmire: That's there's still 498 other companies in the S. And P. 500, 56 00:09:41.470 --> 00:09:43.410 Jeffry Turnmire: that you know. 57 00:09:43.680 --> 00:09:53.680 Jeffry Turnmire: Weigh it down 27% to be specific. Jeffrey. 58 00:09:54.120 --> 00:10:00.810 Jeffry Turnmire: Yeah. I guess apple's 13. Microsoft you know 14 whatever 27 together. Craziness when you look at that 59 00:10:01.030 --> 00:10:05.340 Jeffry Turnmire: But the other 498 companies out there, you know, taking up that other 60 00:10:05.430 --> 00:10:09.440 Jeffry Turnmire: 63%, or whatever the crazy I mean. 61 00:10:10.140 --> 00:10:10.950 Jeffry Turnmire: Yeah. 62 00:10:11.400 --> 00:10:22.700 Jeffry Turnmire: those companies have the opportunity to go to if the money flows, but we have to wait for the money to flow. And right now everybody's waiting for this bare market crash, and it just puts us in a stalemate. The market has is very efficient 63 00:10:22.740 --> 00:10:38.080 Jeffry Turnmire: at fleeing the most number of people it can, if majority of people are bearish, and then. So the other remaining people are bullish. What's the most like a scenario just holding sideways like, Roger said. And you know, if I share my chart here. 64 00:10:38.680 --> 00:10:42.570 Jeffry Turnmire: Go ahead and take it from Roger here for a second. and 65 00:10:43.780 --> 00:10:53.470 Jeffry Turnmire: I have the Nasdaq seasonality here. Now we're we're in this last little potential rally here in May and coming up in June. Probably some chop. 66 00:10:53.640 --> 00:10:55.880 Jeffry Turnmire: probably not go anywhere, you know, which 67 00:10:55.960 --> 00:11:00.240 Jeffry Turnmire: agrees with what Roger's saying. Even you know our big tech. 68 00:11:00.260 --> 00:11:03.700 Jeffry Turnmire: you know everybody's thinking all things. Oh, everything's gonna pop. 69 00:11:03.890 --> 00:11:09.220 Jeffry Turnmire: Yeah, we're breaking out like I've seen the breakout story so many times today, breaking out of the August time. 70 00:11:09.280 --> 00:11:27.220 Jeffry Turnmire: It it may not go anywhere. It may just lead to volatility, and we have right now for the level on the S. And P. 500, which you know it has some seasonality of going sideways to here a little bit of rally into the end of May, and then sideways with some bigger volatility in June. 71 00:11:28.810 --> 00:11:30.570 Jeffry Turnmire: Do that S. And P. 500. 72 00:11:31.460 --> 00:11:40.770 Jeffry Turnmire: The volatility has been pushed down in the toilet like it's when we actually look at the seasonality and the volatility for May. We typically bottom out in May, and then see 73 00:11:41.150 --> 00:11:44.960 Jeffry Turnmire: volatility spikes in the June into early June, and then into late June. 74 00:11:45.510 --> 00:11:55.580 Jeffry Turnmire: so we can see that volatility creeping back in the market. If you're trying to play, Bull put spreads like 0 day option Bull put spreads on Spx is super popular right now. 75 00:11:55.700 --> 00:11:59.420 Jeffry Turnmire: Be careful. The volatility may come and get you on that downside. 76 00:11:59.770 --> 00:12:01.660 Jeffry Turnmire: Now the way that 77 00:12:01.690 --> 00:12:07.220 Jeffry Turnmire: Dix is priced with Sp 500. It's priced off the front months 78 00:12:07.420 --> 00:12:08.720 Jeffry Turnmire: and the options. 79 00:12:08.820 --> 00:12:21.700 Jeffry Turnmire: And so to create a Vic spike. The basically the market has to go down. We call it increased volatility that's increased, realized volatility. and in increased implied volatility. 80 00:12:21.810 --> 00:12:28.930 Jeffry Turnmire: We've got to see a move down to really get that. We can have volatility on the upside, but the vix won't respond. It won't pay you as well 81 00:12:29.020 --> 00:12:30.780 Jeffry Turnmire: of volatility to the upside. 82 00:12:30.830 --> 00:12:49.290 Jeffry Turnmire: So this isn't this 20 year average right here on the fix is suggesting that maybe we see increased downside volatility. and S. And P. 500 as we move into June. It's something to keep in mind with your positioning, and be careful. I've been beaten the drum for 2 days now to be careful after we hit that Nasdaq. 83 00:12:49.410 --> 00:12:52.110 Jeffry Turnmire: I and I I just. 84 00:12:52.280 --> 00:13:02.560 Jeffry Turnmire: I can't say it enough. Times Last couple of days is like, Be careful. The market does not have to do anything in particular right now be careful getting overly bush. Be careful getting overly bearish. 85 00:13:02.790 --> 00:13:03.830 Jeffry Turnmire: Be careful 86 00:13:03.930 --> 00:13:09.630 Jeffry Turnmire: playing tight iron condors, because volatility can increase and get you, even though we don't go anywhere. 87 00:13:10.080 --> 00:13:17.190 Celeste Lindman: What, in your opinion, then Jeffrey is a a good way to play the scenario that you're laying out for us. 88 00:13:17.390 --> 00:13:22.300 Jeffry Turnmire: Well, right now. I've added some protectionary trades to take advantage of volatility increasing 89 00:13:22.350 --> 00:13:26.400 Jeffry Turnmire: the the way I've done. That is, I've gone into a very 90 00:13:26.470 --> 00:13:41.420 Jeffry Turnmire: easy light, low Risk, Sqqq. Position, and I'm. Looking for some positions in Svx y, which is short vix, and tends to respond in a leveraged way, and doesn't decay like uvx y or vxx. 91 00:13:41.480 --> 00:13:55.870 Jeffry Turnmire: So i'm looking at possibly adding some put positions in sbxy, which is kind of like an inverse of an inverse. So svx y goes up when the market volatility goes down, and so the sbxy will drop. 92 00:13:56.120 --> 00:14:06.500 Jeffry Turnmire: while vix spikes so kind of counterintuitive a little bit to play the puts on on something like that. But it is a leveraged instrument and playing options on a leverage instrument is highly dangerous. 93 00:14:06.670 --> 00:14:09.850 Jeffry Turnmire: Be careful if you do that. Yeah, that's good. 94 00:14:09.910 --> 00:14:27.230 Celeste Lindman: really good words, really. Well, said there, Jeffrey, One other question for you, and then i'll move over to you, Scott. But you know you mentioned a lot of things, you know, like looking at seasonality. You talked about Vix. You've talked about different levels and everything. There's a lot to know in the markets. What would you say is one area of knowledge that traders should have 95 00:14:27.920 --> 00:14:28.720 Jeffry Turnmire: both. 96 00:14:29.980 --> 00:14:43.670 Jeffry Turnmire: Is it okay, my big thing? I'm a: I'm: a technical trader and that focusing on the news can get you in trouble. That's the biggest thing. It's probably the biggest lesson. It took me years to learn focusing on news. 97 00:14:44.670 --> 00:14:55.330 Jeffry Turnmire: We'll get you in trouble because the market doesn't react to news. It reacts to levels. and the news that comes out just may or may not support or conflict with. 98 00:14:55.700 --> 00:15:04.190 Jeffry Turnmire: You know who who hadn't been in the trade, and the yearnings come out. They were just like you thought, but the stock does the exact opposite thing you were positioned for. 99 00:15:05.260 --> 00:15:11.450 Jeffry Turnmire: I mean we've seen it over and over. You know. Everybody warns about playing it earnings because it's so dangerous like that. 100 00:15:11.610 --> 00:15:14.750 Jeffry Turnmire: It's because the news doesn't make the charts. 101 00:15:14.760 --> 00:15:32.520 Jeffry Turnmire: and that's my biggest takeaway and thing is, if you can separate your mind from the news and focus more on the charts and the levels. I think you can do a lot better. And politics, too. I mean, that's politics is news to me. That's a good point. Good point. 102 00:15:32.540 --> 00:15:55.950 Celeste Lindman: Yeah, yeah, that's good. That's good. Yeah, we have one TV in our house that should tell you how much news we watch. But let me let. I want to find out some more from you, Scott, and then we're going to go to Roger. And but before I dive into some questions I have for you, Scott, specifically. How would you answer that question? What's one area of knowledge that if if there was just one area of knowledge that traders should have, what would it be? What is it 103 00:15:56.760 --> 00:16:07.400 Scott Welsh: for me? It's technical, and there is nothing else. I started as a fundamental trader, and I read all the warm buffet books, and I love value, investing more than anything but 104 00:16:07.400 --> 00:16:18.590 Scott Welsh: technical. Learn a simple technical system that's rule based, and that will save you more than anything else. I found so far there is a lot more advanced. But 105 00:16:19.010 --> 00:16:21.780 Scott Welsh: man, for something that's enduring for me. It's technical 106 00:16:21.780 --> 00:16:51.770 Celeste Lindman: love that Well, simplicity is is a word that i'm hearing there. And oh, yeah, that's something that we have to preach a lot of times, people, traders. We make it more difficult than it needs to be, and a lot of that has to do, probably with fear, a bunch of different reasons. But that's not the topic of this. Ask the pro session. Let's keep going. I want to find out. Scott, you know. Tell us more about how you're looking at the markets right now, you know, and and and what has your interest, and how this process has worked out for you Say, like over the past 6 months since we were talking about 107 00:16:51.770 --> 00:16:54.600 that 6, 7 months a year, whatever. How's it worked out? 108 00:16:54.750 --> 00:17:03.290 Scott Welsh: Well, let's take a look. Shall we all? First I got a share, all right. Yeah, yeah, I always have to share it. It'd be nice 109 00:17:03.450 --> 00:17:09.250 Scott Welsh: slide slide show. You need to move. slide show from beginning. 110 00:17:10.250 --> 00:17:11.720 Scott Welsh: Okay, how about that 111 00:17:11.780 --> 00:17:13.690 Celeste Lindman: perfect love? It 112 00:17:14.380 --> 00:17:30.220 Scott Welsh: we're gonna talk with. I mean, every time i'm on. We talk about this because the Weinstein model, because I find it a very simplified, enduring long term way to look at the markets. It's extremely boring Doesn't take any fundamental analysis. 113 00:17:30.300 --> 00:17:37.490 Scott Welsh: but I like it that way, right, and I've I've explained it before, but we want to buy in stage one and stage 2, 114 00:17:37.710 --> 00:17:48.590 Scott Welsh: which is right over here. This is a long-term moving average on a weekly char. It's a 30 we want to trade when it's breaking above the 30 or on pull back to the 30, and I won't spend a lot of time on that. 115 00:17:48.810 --> 00:17:54.280 Scott Welsh: However, when we've gotten together, I've also taken this and gone one step more boring. 116 00:17:54.330 --> 00:18:00.680 Scott Welsh: I hope everyone falls asleep as I talk about this, but this is a monthly chart. Wake up monthly. 117 00:18:00.900 --> 00:18:12.780 Scott Welsh: and it's 12 to 12. What does that mean? Of course I built a robot for it, right? Because i'm an i'll go technical trader. This is the 12 month moving average 118 00:18:12.980 --> 00:18:23.760 Scott Welsh: you get. You enter when it closes monthly, closes above the 12 simple, moving average. You get out when it closes below 119 00:18:23.780 --> 00:18:28.320 Scott Welsh: the 12 simple moving average, and it has to close twice 120 00:18:28.800 --> 00:18:33.280 Scott Welsh: above. So one is not enough. Not enough proof. That's the robot. 121 00:18:33.450 --> 00:18:43.550 Scott Welsh: And this is an automated hypothetical trade from Amazon. I yeah. Pretty good company. I've heard good things about Amazon. And so there's 2 closes. 122 00:18:43.660 --> 00:18:56.370 Scott Welsh: and then you don't. What are you doing? Well, you can watch the news all you want, but you're doing nothing, and then it closes in. You get out all right. So I took Weinstein and I made it a robot, and I made it an even more boring robot. Okay. 123 00:18:56.730 --> 00:18:58.640 Scott Welsh: there is 124 00:18:58.660 --> 00:19:17.450 Scott Welsh: a few more trades over the years. Huh? Wow, Seems to do okay on Amazon crazily enough. And this is it again. We can do it better. You could have a different profit. Target stop losses all that we can make this better, but we're keeping it simple, and this is the equity curve in the.com Crash it didn't do great, but since 125 00:19:17.640 --> 00:19:30.830 Scott Welsh: then that's a 60,000 starting at 20,000, just doing this boring monthly system, and it doesn't on Apple, and many other stocks too. Which is why i'm interested in looking at the markets this way, so it's boring. It's long term. 126 00:19:31.030 --> 00:19:41.690 Scott Welsh: But here's something even more interesting. This goes back to the 19 sixtys same system, and see the Spx, because it has the most data. It's the longest that I can find 127 00:19:41.800 --> 00:20:02.400 Scott Welsh: from January 1,960 to 2,023. This is an equity curve that seems to be rising now. I understand by and hold it. We'll get there too. But using a system has way less draw down than buying hold, and we can talk about that some other time. So what is long term to me, this is very long term, which is why, again. I'm interested in it now. 128 00:20:02.490 --> 00:20:10.820 Scott Welsh: I've been on in April a couple of times talking about P. Ltr. And if you put this boring system on it. 129 00:20:11.500 --> 00:20:27.320 Scott Welsh: and we did it on the we've talked about on the weekly. We've talked about it on the monthly we talked about above the simple moving average, breaking above 9, 2925. It might be a trade. And yes, it said, the $11 level is when I made this start earlier 130 00:20:27.380 --> 00:20:35.100 Scott Welsh: so a very boring way to look. But it did break out. Do I think it should break out? Do I think the market should go up in my heart? No. 131 00:20:35.220 --> 00:20:40.350 Scott Welsh: but it broke out. The charts no more than me. The charts have been through more than I have. 132 00:20:40.650 --> 00:21:00.020 Scott Welsh: so I trust them. And here it is on a monthly. That was the weekly. This is the monthly again. A break above 9. 20 would have gotten you here. This will be a trade at the start of next month if you care about trading a robotic, silly, boring system. Right? So that's almost a trade I wrote about in the Free Email about draft kings 133 00:21:00.220 --> 00:21:16.810 Scott Welsh: 2 closes above. So writing about this back in April also, so the robot would have bought it here. I mean. I don't know why gambling stocks and leisure stocks are going up. I don't think they should go up. We have a huge inflation, but what I say doesn't matter it. Buy here! What have you nicely in profit? 134 00:21:16.840 --> 00:21:28.720 Scott Welsh: I mean you'd have to trail the stop. We can talk about that some other time, but I wrote about it. I said it could go, and it went. Churchill Downs right before the Kentucky Derby. I was writing about this back in March, April. 135 00:21:29.050 --> 00:21:33.600 Scott Welsh: It was a close right around this time January, February. You could have traded the breakout. 136 00:21:33.830 --> 00:21:44.200 Scott Welsh: I mean. Why is why are horse racing stocks going up? But they are at least for now. So, anyway, that's what's happened Here's a couple that may happen soon. 137 00:21:44.440 --> 00:22:00.280 Scott Welsh: I buy. I've talked about it in etf you don't ever have to look around. It's just online retail. It went from 60 to 1 40 if you would have bought after 2 closes above again. This didn't get out to here, but you could have gotten out here because you're smarter, miss the bear market. 138 00:22:00.300 --> 00:22:04.120 Scott Welsh: and it might be getting ready soon, so that put that on your list. 139 00:22:04.330 --> 00:22:14.870 Scott Welsh: Oh, tesla good little car stock. This simple boring system, too close above the simple moving average, would have gone you in at 22 and got you out of 2 86. 140 00:22:14.990 --> 00:22:26.520 Scott Welsh: I guess that's pretty decent performance, I think, would have missed the entire bear market tesla! Oh, the news tesla's bullish, but it's not close to this. So I don't care about Tesla news right now, but 141 00:22:26.560 --> 00:22:34.020 Scott Welsh: could be a big one again. Here is Neil tesla's competitor that went from what? 142 00:22:34.690 --> 00:22:42.710 Scott Welsh: $4 to $37, just buying them too close above. Not a trade yet, but something you can put on your radar for the future 143 00:22:43.060 --> 00:22:46.250 Scott Welsh: here's the Xl. Of the banks bank crisis. Well. 144 00:22:46.260 --> 00:22:53.040 Scott Welsh: it's trades coming soon. We need 2 closes above this one isn't a a screamer like the one. But 145 00:22:53.290 --> 00:23:07.820 Scott Welsh: if you like bank stocks. It's not ready yet, but it could be ready in a couple of months, right when everything comes down. I this one I just get laughed at, and Don't listen to a word I say about Carvana. What a ridiculous company is not me! It's it's so many bad things about carbon. 146 00:23:07.900 --> 00:23:19.400 Scott Welsh: but it got in around 60, and it would have gotten out around 300 just by trading this the bear market and missed it all. But look at this little green. It's Carvana coming back. 147 00:23:19.640 --> 00:23:31.570 Scott Welsh: I mean it's on my radar. I'm gonna watch it. I don't know for sure. Q. 2 queue for dis disclosure. I am actually in this one. I followed my own system, and I'm in this one, and i'm in profit, did okay in 2020, 148 00:23:31.680 --> 00:23:33.240 Scott Welsh: 2 closes above 149 00:23:33.290 --> 00:23:42.450 Scott Welsh: It went for about a 200 gain on the Etf. I know this is 3 X, and it's dangerous, and nobody should ever trade it. But i'm just showing it to you because I like to share. 150 00:23:42.930 --> 00:23:49.960 Scott Welsh: Here's the Qqq. Queue that's actually a. By I did Tq. Qq. Instead of Qqq. But you couldn't do either. Qqq. Is more normal. 151 00:23:50.020 --> 00:23:55.450 Scott Welsh: Made 48 on a break back in the pandemic times. and we're a spy 152 00:23:55.610 --> 00:24:08.700 Scott Welsh: it should go down. Rogers right, Jeffrey's right. But gosh darn it, it's a close now. It could stop out easily, right. It could go side. It could do nothing. I don't think the spy should go up, but it's actually just turned into a buy in May. 153 00:24:08.870 --> 00:24:25.020 Scott Welsh: so we could put our stop right below the low. We could put our stop below the simple moving average, but I don't know what to tell you. The the spy, according to the numbers, is a box, so that's what i'm looking at. That's what's been working past few months, and we've got some things to put on the radar. 154 00:24:25.020 --> 00:24:44.700 Roger Scott: Scott, I I I it. So if you don't mind, I just want to clarify something here. Yeah, can you go to this? The Amazon one real quick and show me you. You said you had a P. And L. On the Amazon one equity curve. Yeah, the equity curve, can you? Yeah. So you started in 2,020, and you ended in 2,023, and you made you went from 20. You may 155 00:24:44.920 --> 00:24:46.430 Roger Scott: 3 times your money. 156 00:24:46.520 --> 00:24:48.640 Scott Welsh: 2,000 started at 2,000, 157 00:24:49.070 --> 00:24:50.820 Roger Scott: and you tripled your money right 158 00:24:50.940 --> 00:24:56.820 Roger Scott: yeah now. But Amazon was Amazon was in a dollar 50 in 2,000, 159 00:24:57.520 --> 00:25:01.280 Roger Scott: and it went up to a $175 160 00:25:02.730 --> 00:25:04.210 Roger Scott: in 2,020. 161 00:25:04.660 --> 00:25:13.060 Roger Scott: The 2,023 was actually 100. And so, if you bought and hold, you would have been up a 100 times your money a 1 million. More. That's correct. Yes. 162 00:25:13.100 --> 00:25:19.950 Scott Welsh: but it okay. And and I can make, and the August that I look at. 163 00:25:20.090 --> 00:25:31.180 Scott Welsh: I can almost always be by and hold, not with magic optimization. But just be using some simple fundamentals, not fundamental fundamentals, but basics of, you know, testing and that insane a lot of sample that sort of thing. 164 00:25:31.180 --> 00:25:44.810 Scott Welsh: But the difference is who can hold Amazon when it goes down? 85! That's the key, you know you can buy and hold and make 10,000 right. Amazon is the number one stock of of since the 19 late 1990 S. It's number one. It's the Grand and daddy of them all. 165 00:25:44.880 --> 00:26:03.740 Scott Welsh: But my argument is I need to, but I need to trade it because I could. I could never make it through 85% down. I'd love it when it went 10,000 up. But so that's a difference between trading, and I'll go buy and hold will beat it on something like apple and Amazon from 2,000 on, or you know whatever. But for me 166 00:26:03.740 --> 00:26:22.200 Scott Welsh: i'll go. Trading is. Give me the discipline and let me control my draw down. But you're I agree with you. It's just I. I was just happening to look. I was like he's. I think he beat everybody except except Amazon. Amazon was like it, because it went like from a buck to like $1,750. So I don't know about all those on that one, but everything else 167 00:26:22.200 --> 00:26:51.630 Scott Welsh: but everything else. I could see your point, and I I I i'm with you on it. I'm just playing devil's advocate. I'm, i'm a I'm a 100 bucks. Yeah, this one, since 2,003 is, would have been great. But yeah, it it. It took some losses during right, because the system is not perfect. Yeah, definitely Did not like the.com but it didn't go down 85. So well that's the thing and people are typing into, you know, and and to your point, Scott. I mean holding that in those big draw towns that's really something else. And do you use options on these on on your trading. 168 00:26:51.630 --> 00:27:21.610 Scott Welsh: Scott. Well, someone who's super smart, and those options absolutely. You could take these signals and just buy a long dated option, and you can make a lot more. Yes, i'm doing it like I said, the most boring possible way. Yeah, good. Well, so yeah, that that's the key to. Can you go back to one of your other charts, because there's some questions about about the the the exits, the entries, and the access. You know the 2 month or the the 2 closes on your 12 month moving average. Could you repeat kind of what you said 169 00:27:21.720 --> 00:27:45.760 Scott Welsh: about? You know entries exits on using that 2 months of on your 12 month moving average. Yeah, sure. I just don't want to take anyone else's time. So I like kind of passed. So sorry this is the Weinstein curve right? That looked just like all I did was build a robot, and I didn't want one close. I just wanted more than one close. So that's I didn't optimize this at all. I didn't pick 12 with optimization. I just picked it out of my brain. 170 00:27:45.830 --> 00:27:50.080 Scott Welsh: So here you have the 12 month. Simple, moving average. 171 00:27:50.680 --> 00:27:55.870 Scott Welsh: You need price to close, not touch, but close, so it needs to close above. 172 00:27:56.410 --> 00:27:58.950 Scott Welsh: Then it needs to close above again. 173 00:27:59.060 --> 00:28:02.750 Scott Welsh: and then you buy the open to the next bar, which is a monthly bar. So 174 00:28:02.930 --> 00:28:16.650 Scott Welsh: you wait 2 months, hey? We got a signal, and then you would buy the open of the next month, and then you could trail that. Stop like I said. There are better ways to do it, i'm sure. But then you would just wait for a close below 175 00:28:16.770 --> 00:28:21.390 Scott Welsh: the 12 again, and you could get out at the open to the next bar that way. 176 00:28:21.390 --> 00:28:51.380 Celeste Lindman: What i'm hearing is. You say I want to say something here really quick, if I can, because what I love about this and this is what everybody here needs to understand. Yeah, these are long term traits, and these are using different timeframes. I mean this: this is a monthly timeframe. We're not talking about daily chart. We're not talking about a 30 min. We're not talking about a weekly we're talking about monthly, and I love this. This has been key to my success, Scott. So thanks for pointing this out, for really being confident of long term moves. I love it, love it. 177 00:28:51.380 --> 00:29:00.550 Celeste Lindman: There there are multiple multiple ways, and you're I know, Scott, you're just scratching the surface of the ways. People can use this in with options when that option knowledge, Whoo! 178 00:29:00.590 --> 00:29:16.570 Jeffry Turnmire: I mean it's really good stuff. So really good, so sorry, Jeffrey. Go ahead. 179 00:29:16.710 --> 00:29:24.650 Jeffry Turnmire: you know. Maybe your your reward is not as great, but you're sweating your your your nights of not sleeping. 180 00:29:24.870 --> 00:29:44.500 Jeffry Turnmire: They're definitely cut down and reduced a lot. And you know that's that's one of the key things psychologically. You're gonna second Guess yourself if you're sitting there. Going. Oh, my gosh, i'm down 50. I'm down 30405050600, my gosh! I gotta sell this, and then you watch it turn right when you sell. Yeah, if if you just follow a system, it it cuts out a lot of that. 181 00:29:44.500 --> 00:30:01.640 Scott Welsh: It's a great phrase that it works in athletics, you know, as a tennis teacher for a long time, but it works in athletics, and it works in trading. You don't fit your life around your trading system, you fit your trading system into your life. So if you cannot handle drawdown, then you could, you would say, i'm going to give up 10,000 182 00:30:01.640 --> 00:30:16.540 Scott Welsh: to make 700 or whatever right, because sitting through that draw down peacefully is way better than buying a home and seeing it go down. 80% either way is fine. But you need to decide. What do you like, and then your system has to follow that 183 00:30:16.540 --> 00:30:31.360 Roger Scott: right? Yeah, a 100% don't change the rules on it, you know. You look at this monthly don't be changing the rules. It's all changes, everything right. The the system has to fit you just to comment about the options, because I do trade options pretty much all the time. That's what we do. And 184 00:30:31.360 --> 00:30:49.320 Roger Scott: I actually would not. I'm gonna say that again, I would not recommend options with Scott's system, because what happens is you really don't know how long the trend is going to last, and some of these trends can last for multiple years, and you can have a draw down periods last months. So what's gonna happen with options is 185 00:30:49.320 --> 00:31:02.400 Roger Scott: you're going to end up buying a lot of options and having a lot of them expire, and it's going to add to your cost because you're looking for big, big, big big moves here, and I mean big moves. Hmm. A simple approach would be just buying less shares. 186 00:31:02.400 --> 00:31:20.170 Roger Scott: You don't have to have a lot of shares. These kind of moves can, I mean? Look at these moves on Amazon from $80 to $150 in one shot. So you don't need to have a lot leaps You're You're leaving a lot of money on the table in terms of I. I know that it sounds good, but take it from somebody who's been doing this for almost 30 years. 187 00:31:20.170 --> 00:31:24.650 Roger Scott: Sometimes option transactions sound a lot sexier than they are in real life. 188 00:31:24.710 --> 00:31:44.580 Roger Scott: You know there's a lot of things that come with them that a lot of people don't. It's like owning a plane. It sounds sexy till you figure out the gas cost the maintenance. There's a lot of there's the biggest reason why people don't own airplanes is because of all this stuff that comes with it. So i'm telling you. There's a lot of hassles that come with options when you're planning a trade for 2 years. 189 00:31:44.600 --> 00:32:12.580 Roger Scott: you picking on my airplane ownership. Not at all. I didn't even know you have an airplane where you had an airplane. But but seriously, like, if you talk, I know a lot of people who had airplanes, and i'm going to say, or boats, and it's like, let me guess when they buy boats they don't think about the fuel cost fuel for boats is very, very expensive. Okay, a lot of people just don't take tied into account. Storage costs for airplanes. Very. I know a family that bought 2 airplanes, one to rent out, and one to fly 190 00:32:12.580 --> 00:32:18.640 Roger Scott: very wealthy family, and they hated it. Everyone I know who had as a plane sold it everybody unequivocally. 191 00:32:18.640 --> 00:32:47.790 Roger Scott: T-bus had an airplane, and he sold it. Actually, now that I think about it. Yeah. So it's like something sound better than they are. And there's a lot of really great things to do with options. But I would go with Scott's approach. Here I would go with a more pure approach, have less shares, have a headache, because you just don't know how long you're going to be holding these things, for it can be held for like a year or 2, and if you buy options that expire every 6 months, and you have to reinvent. It can become very costly and offset a lot of those gains. So i'm just giving you. 192 00:32:47.790 --> 00:33:17.420 Celeste Lindman: I want to jump in here a little bit, too. Thanks for that clarity on that, Roger, to, because what Roger brings up a really good point, and that is you all need to ask questions. You all need to really know what is being talked about, and never make assumptions, you know, so like and like when i'm talking about timeframes, I mean like that kind of a skill of being able to see a longer term timeframe and kind of see overall like maybe an Amazon is more longer term long. You use these fine or tuned finer tune timeframes, the dailies, the 30 min, the weeklies 193 00:33:17.470 --> 00:33:36.180 to really kind of get to 0 in on the the swing trading. So we're talking about. Yeah, very, very different things. You all need to ask questions, because there's a lot of different answers to the different types of trading that you can do, and it can get confusing. Which is why to Roger I'm really excited. I i'm gonna let the cat out bag a little bit, because 194 00:33:36.180 --> 00:33:56.060 Celeste Lindman: you're going to talk a little bit about options in a smart smart way to use options, and that's what I really want people to hear. So. But anyway, before we get to that, Roger, I want to find out, because because Scott was also talking about. All all goes. We've heard a lot about Al goes. I know that they're in there like these little you know. 195 00:33:56.060 --> 00:34:09.350 Celeste Lindman: environments that are in that market, causing all kinds of habit to tell us. You know what's going on right now that we need to know about all those, and also what other things are you looking at? What's going on? You know, in the market that we need to know? 196 00:34:09.350 --> 00:34:34.090 Roger Scott: Celeste? I'm stealing that vermin's in the market, crawling around. I'm loving this. This is great. This is this is but you're right. You're a 100% right? That's exactly what they are. They're like new ones. Musa Gremlins. Yeah, and like trying to try just just you know, I used to live in Beverly Hills and we lived there. It was like we had. There was golf courses everywhere, and I live 4 blocks away from a golf course. 197 00:34:34.090 --> 00:34:52.780 Roger Scott: There was those not ferrets. What are they? The the things that go under underground, and that you could. You just step in it mo moles or stuff like that, and you would just step in a hole right. You'd step in a hole and and your leg would just it. It it was very, very, it was. It wasn't fun? I'm gonna tell you it was not fun. 198 00:34:52.780 --> 00:35:09.690 Roger Scott: and now I live on a golf course. But I guess I guess we we have those nets. If Florida rooms here so they they they can't come in, but go first. That's it. Go first. There was tons of there were so many gophers there. It was amazing. I almost broke my ankle 3 times a living there, anyways 199 00:35:09.810 --> 00:35:18.760 Roger Scott: funny stories from the past. So I want to talk, You know th. The the topic of this of this story that i'll talk about should be called Al goes gone wild 200 00:35:18.760 --> 00:35:37.810 Roger Scott: because i'm going to tell you. These suckers have gone wild. Now. Al those can't manipulate too much, but one of the indicators that i'm finding that they've that that seems to work really well with spotting these bill. Big alga plays is is using a is using a 5 day. Rsi. It's actually working out really well, and you could see 201 00:35:37.810 --> 00:35:53.230 Roger Scott: that right now. The 5 day Rsi is the highest it's been. I'm going to say this again. It's the highest has been since October, November of 2,021. I mean, look at this thing. This is insane. I mean this is this is craziness. 202 00:35:53.860 --> 00:35:55.600 Roger Scott: What's even more craziness. 203 00:35:56.440 --> 00:36:16.130 Roger Scott: 90% of this move. And when I say and i'm going to show you some cool stuff here. 90% of this move is caused by these rascals right here. Microsoft Apple. I think Jeffrey was talking about Market Cap Jeffrey, if you're interested there right here you could get literally real time market cap for all of them. But look at this. 204 00:36:16.130 --> 00:36:18.610 Roger Scott: Tesla, not Tesla. Sorry, Meta. 205 00:36:18.680 --> 00:36:37.270 Roger Scott: Google, Nvidia Amazon, Apple Microsoft, I mean. Look at the charts of all of them right now. I mean it's not a coincidence. Trust me, they're not all fundamentally doing exactly the same thing. But look at these charts. The stocks that I just mentioned, the 5 or 6 stocks that I just mentioned are literally responsible 206 00:36:37.270 --> 00:36:42.990 Roger Scott: for for about 40% of the market cap in the Qqq. Look at this that's Microsoft. 207 00:36:43.130 --> 00:36:44.510 Roger Scott: Look at Nvidia 208 00:36:45.600 --> 00:36:58.830 Roger Scott: and there, and the 5 day Rsi is popping like wild on all of them. Look at this thing. Look at the and then look at the 5. They are side. It's going crazy. Look at Amazon, I mean, we're not going to go through many. There's only 5 of them. 209 00:36:58.950 --> 00:37:01.650 Roger Scott: And Meta and Google, I think that's it. 210 00:37:02.040 --> 00:37:07.680 Roger Scott: Look. Amazon, all making swing highs. Google. 211 00:37:12.660 --> 00:37:14.270 Roger Scott: Look at that. Look at this thing 212 00:37:14.510 --> 00:37:21.170 Roger Scott: and and and Meta. They're they're all going wild folks. This is classic classic. Algorithm. 213 00:37:21.210 --> 00:37:28.840 Roger Scott: All those have shifted move for shifted assets in the last week from defensive assets like consumer Staples 214 00:37:28.850 --> 00:37:31.810 Roger Scott: health care, and they've shifted them into these 215 00:37:31.870 --> 00:37:43.040 Roger Scott: 6 stocks. Now it's very hard for the Algos to run a muck and manipulate the entire Qq. That would be a little. I mean you. It's hard to do that for more than say 216 00:37:43.060 --> 00:37:54.830 Roger Scott: day and a half, but they can take these 5 or 6 stocks, and they can just go crazy on them and make them go parabolic like this trigger. Some stops all you have to do is Trigger. Some stops here 217 00:37:54.830 --> 00:38:11.170 Roger Scott: and just watch them go. The problem is these momentum levels cannot stay long and let me prove to you. I'm gonna prove to you that this is limited in one click of a mouse. So i'm gonna prove to you that this is limited to just those 6 stocks. This is the equal weighted NASA, 100. 218 00:38:13.000 --> 00:38:15.750 Roger Scott: Now let's take away all that stuff. 219 00:38:16.200 --> 00:38:20.830 Roger Scott: Look at how it looks right now in comparison. Does it look like it's running wild to you 220 00:38:20.970 --> 00:38:29.080 Roger Scott: at all. Does it look like it's running a month? This is stripping all that market cap away. This is making them all equal weighted right now. Matter of fact. 221 00:38:29.360 --> 00:38:33.500 Roger Scott: now that I think of it, I can take this now, and move this up here 222 00:38:34.780 --> 00:38:45.380 Roger Scott: and make a channel out of it. It'll probably top out somewhere right over here. But the the the point is, this thing is not ready to go higher, and if you take those stocks away, if you take the 223 00:38:46.910 --> 00:38:49.350 Roger Scott: here Nas stag. 224 00:38:51.840 --> 00:38:56.240 Roger Scott: there's there's an index. Hold on it's an index. I want to give you a ticker symbol. It's a 225 00:38:57.590 --> 00:39:00.740 Roger Scott: Nasdaq. It's the Nasdaq without 226 00:39:01.260 --> 00:39:06.000 Roger Scott: here. No, it's the NASA without the tech part in it. 227 00:39:06.080 --> 00:39:07.950 Roger Scott: Yeah, yeah yeah, I just had it. 228 00:39:07.980 --> 00:39:14.640 Celeste Lindman: Does anybody remember what it is? I had it here a while just a little bit ago? Is it in Dxx Bodine typed in 229 00:39:15.070 --> 00:39:16.250 Roger Scott: and d 230 00:39:16.970 --> 00:39:30.390 Roger Scott: there it is. That's it. Thank you. Thank you, Bodie. I just had it in my in my previous okay, so here's the NASA without without the tech. Does this look. Does this look to you like like something that's raging? 231 00:39:30.980 --> 00:39:35.180 Roger Scott: Does that look to you like a runaway market That looks to me 232 00:39:35.280 --> 00:39:37.600 Roger Scott: like real estate? 233 00:39:37.750 --> 00:39:39.070 Roger Scott: It looks to me 234 00:39:39.080 --> 00:39:42.210 Roger Scott: like basic materials. It looks to me 235 00:39:42.690 --> 00:39:48.720 Roger Scott: like industrial. It looks to me actually consumer staples, looking hell of a lot better. 236 00:39:48.930 --> 00:40:08.770 Roger Scott: maybe healthcare. But it's not looking to me like these 3, like technology communications are Technology has 4 out of those 5 thanks. Stocks. They make up for out of 35 to 50 stocks, they make up 4. So out of 100 stocks you have in the Qqq. Here you have less of a delusion, so it's even a more of a 237 00:40:08.770 --> 00:40:24.820 Roger Scott: in here. You have Google and Meta, and I think one more in the communication and consumer discretionary is not even pretending to top that it just it can't even fake it. My point is technically right now, looking at what the all those are doing, looking at the fact that the 5 day. Rsi is at a 238 00:40:24.820 --> 00:40:38.350 Roger Scott: at a huge level. Technically, these things look like they're grossly over bought. But i'm not even halfway done yet. Let's talk about this fundamentally now. and I showed this earlier today in my vip room. I want to show you guys something. 239 00:40:38.980 --> 00:40:48.320 Roger Scott: This is the p ratio. This is the P ratio right now. So now we we just looked at everything technically, and you know where I stand technically 240 00:40:48.600 --> 00:40:53.180 Roger Scott: but fundamentally. Can you see this? Can you see this? The last? Okay. Yep. 241 00:40:53.230 --> 00:41:04.800 Roger Scott: It's a pretty cool color. This is the P. Ratio, the this is the P ratio on the on the Qq. And a year and a half ago we went to 30, almost went to 35, but now it's a 30, 242 00:41:05.060 --> 00:41:09.170 Roger Scott: but i'm going to tell you it's not really a 30. Here's where it really is. 243 00:41:09.410 --> 00:41:11.290 Roger Scott: Let me just delete this 244 00:41:12.420 --> 00:41:14.550 Roger Scott: if you adjust everything, Remember 245 00:41:15.700 --> 00:41:17.640 Roger Scott: right when when when 246 00:41:17.890 --> 00:41:31.830 Roger Scott: when we had it at 35 interest rates were 0 point 2, 5. Can you make that bigger? Yes, I can, and I will if I can't. Let's see it. Yup. Okay. So this is reality. 247 00:41:32.000 --> 00:41:43.270 Roger Scott: This is reality. This is adjusted for the current inflationary pressure. So remember, interest rates were 0 point. 2 5 interest rates now are at 5.2, 5 248 00:41:43.450 --> 00:41:53.000 Roger Scott: tech is not weighted the same way. So right now we're at we're equivalent. If you were to do the math, we're equivalent to about 39 PE ratio 249 00:41:53.210 --> 00:41:57.350 Roger Scott: that folks I got news for you. That's the highest we've been 250 00:41:57.440 --> 00:41:59.080 Roger Scott: since 2,008. 251 00:41:59.460 --> 00:42:10.530 Roger Scott: That's higher than we've been in 2,008. Now were we expecting in 2,021 October of 2,021, when we were here we were, we were still expecting earnings 252 00:42:10.550 --> 00:42:16.400 Roger Scott: to be up 10 to 20% at a clip. Earnings Revisions were negative till 2,022. 253 00:42:16.830 --> 00:42:32.530 Roger Scott: Now we're not expecting 15 to 20 nutshell stocks are trading like it's 2,02021 again, and it's and it's not and it's. Interest Rates are not 0, and somebody forgot to tell these stocks that so fundamentally and technically. 254 00:42:32.530 --> 00:42:57.700 Roger Scott: these things look horrific. They look really really bad. They don't look good at all. They don't look good at all. So that's the first thing I wanted to tell you. This is what the Nasdaq really looks like. Okay, it's not rocking and rolling, and it's not really looking like that when you take away literally 5 stocks. Okay, this is without the 5 stocks. You're not going to get a trend like that. You're gonna get it. You're You're still like right here 255 00:42:58.110 --> 00:43:03.070 Roger Scott: And right now. By the way. momentum levels in the Qqq. 256 00:43:04.780 --> 00:43:23.680 Roger Scott: You have 60 64% trading above the 50 and the 20 day moving average not 90, not a 100 like the the index looks so it's it's it's, it's fake news. It's a mirage. It's an aberration, Don't fall for the banana in detail type. Okay, that's what this is in the biggest way possible. Okay. 257 00:43:23.680 --> 00:43:35.980 Roger Scott: So that's the first thing I wanted to talk about Number 2. I want to talk about the retail sales report that came out earlier this week. We had a a retail sales report, and I know you guys usually get the headline number 258 00:43:37.080 --> 00:43:40.420 Roger Scott: and the headline number doesn't Take away it doesn't separate everything. 259 00:43:40.610 --> 00:43:53.030 Roger Scott: But if you I remember on this show About a year ago I was predicting that food prices were going. Food was going to become more and more scarce, and food prices are going to stay higher and higher. 260 00:43:53.140 --> 00:43:58.590 Roger Scott: So I want to tell you something about this retail. Sales rose less than expected in April. 261 00:43:58.960 --> 00:44:14.220 Roger Scott: but the grocery store category stood out with a 0 point. 4% decline between March, April and March, and only 3.7% year over year. Higher prices have been masking a notable drop in volume. For many grocery stores 262 00:44:14.220 --> 00:44:24.610 Roger Scott: and analysts have been pointing out to higher prices and shrinkflation. As a reason. Consumers may be altering their habits. The point is, people are consumers are. And 263 00:44:24.790 --> 00:44:28.110 Roger Scott: after this report we had a report from Target 264 00:44:28.360 --> 00:44:42.070 Roger Scott: Now, Target set something very, very interesting. Actually, what's interesting. It was completely the opposite of what happened last year this time, when Target gave us a big negative surprise. Target said that people are, in fact, spending money. 265 00:44:42.200 --> 00:44:50.030 Roger Scott: but they're not spending money for Tvs or stuff like that. They're They're spending money more on groceries there. People have moved from 266 00:44:50.350 --> 00:44:58.260 Roger Scott: Albertson's, Ralph's, whatever whatever your the name of your supermarket chain is in this. In the in the city you live in. They have different names, but 267 00:44:58.280 --> 00:45:17.930 Roger Scott: people are starting to shop a lot more for things that they need in stores like Dollar General Walmart Target. I know my in laws. They buy their groceries and Walmart. They don't even go to markets. Food is actually cheaper in those things, and shopping habits of people have moved a lot more from things that they 268 00:45:18.300 --> 00:45:20.440 Roger Scott: want the things that they need. 269 00:45:20.520 --> 00:45:39.930 Roger Scott: So i'm seeing a lot higher pressure in in a lot more upside, and stores like Walmart Target and consumer staples as opposed to consumer discretionary. So we've had that news now from Target, and we've had it from the fed data. There's there's a shift that's happening right now, and you gotta be very very mindful. 270 00:45:39.930 --> 00:45:46.470 Roger Scott: So keep your eye on potential short opportunities in stock like sprout markets. 271 00:45:47.170 --> 00:46:02.810 Roger Scott: Those are luxury discounts. Those are luxury stores where people buy things that they like, what's the other one that owned by Amazon, which Isn't good for Amazon, Whole Foods people will be spending less money in places like whole foods. Proud markets, Kroger. 272 00:46:02.840 --> 00:46:21.200 Roger Scott: for example, and a lot more money in places like like like like Target and and and Walmart and Dollar general and Dollar tree, and i'm expecting those stocks to continue moving. But the bottom line is don't don't. Let this shake off in xlp. Which is 273 00:46:21.340 --> 00:46:41.060 Roger Scott: the consumer staple sector. This swayed you from these type of stocks, because where the economy is going right now, these stocks are looking really really good, and I think there's going to be some strong support nearby, and we're going to get an opportunity to bounce on on these stocks. That's why i'm looking at stocks like Proctor Gamble Hormell 274 00:46:41.080 --> 00:47:00.130 Roger Scott: stocks a chlorox things that are really like kind of stocks that were in short, supply during Covid. I think you got to start looking at the market, especially if we have more recessionary pressure coming our way. And lastly, there are 2 chip stocks that I i'm really liking right now, and I want to talk to you guys about them now. 275 00:47:00.140 --> 00:47:05.180 Roger Scott: Everybody loves Nvidia and I'm. I like Nvidia, too, but folks am d 276 00:47:05.910 --> 00:47:11.720 Roger Scott: remember one of the biggest growth stocks in the last 20 years has been amd 277 00:47:12.150 --> 00:47:25.190 Roger Scott: dominoes. If you look at a 20 year chart of Amd, you'll see this thing. I mean this. This. This may be one of those stocks that would have done been a perfect example for what Scott was showing us earlier today. Actually. But Amd is one of those stocks now 278 00:47:25.430 --> 00:47:26.440 Roger Scott: in 279 00:47:26.790 --> 00:47:45.480 Roger Scott: in in May of 2,022 they completed a 1.9 million dollar 1 billiondollar acquisition of distributed computer startup pence on those systems and the stock popped over 6% Last June they talked about an opportunity in data analysis centers. 280 00:47:45.480 --> 00:48:04.780 Roger Scott: and that that that market is not worth about 300 billiondollars. They're predicting improved profit margins, free cash flow. They're taking way. Way. A lot of market cap from Intel Don't tell my father that he's a big fan of Intel, but their desktop processor sales are up 18.6%, 281 00:48:04.900 --> 00:48:07.940 Roger Scott: the last quarter. Their no books are up 20%, 282 00:48:07.990 --> 00:48:21.870 Roger Scott: and they're doing a lot of things with Microsoft right now, and it with AI, they're trying to follow in nvidia's footsteps, so I like the stock a lot. I think they're going to pull back up to the probably the $90 level. 283 00:48:21.880 --> 00:48:35.640 Roger Scott: But then I believe they're gonna go higher, and I think the stock is going to see some higher highs. The other chip stock I really like simply because they've been doing everything really well, and I would call this a blue chip. 284 00:48:35.780 --> 00:48:42.480 Roger Scott: This would be like a a blue chip chip stock. Their multiple p ratio is not very high right now. 285 00:48:42.540 --> 00:49:02.140 Roger Scott: their prices looking really good. They're implying in their price about a 10% upside from where they're at right now. Now. I wouldn't be buying the stock right now. I'd be waiting for a pull back to the 500 low 500 levels. But I think over time we're we could see the stock go up to the $700 level in a very. 286 00:49:02.140 --> 00:49:14.680 Roger Scott: very quick way. Now, before I let you guys go. Celeste was right. I've got something to talk about. Is it okay to talk about it. Celeste, Go for it, please. We need to know. I've got something very exciting for you guys. Now. 287 00:49:14.710 --> 00:49:22.970 Roger Scott: unlike a lot of folks here, I've been involved in the options market for about 29 years. Now, what if there is a way 288 00:49:23.170 --> 00:49:25.880 Roger Scott: to spend half half 289 00:49:25.900 --> 00:49:29.470 Roger Scott: on every option? You buy or roughly half, sometimes more than half 290 00:49:29.900 --> 00:49:43.330 Roger Scott: seriously. What if there is a way to take a $3 apple option and pay only a dollar 50? Not only are you gonna get a better deal, but you have to let make less money on the upside to justify your trade, because to make 20% on 291 00:49:43.330 --> 00:49:55.990 Roger Scott: $3 you have to go from 3 to 3, 60, but to on a on a dollar 50 option. It only has to go to a dollar 80, which isn't very much same strike price, same expiration, but half the price. 292 00:49:56.080 --> 00:49:58.190 Roger Scott: half the price, I tell you. 293 00:49:58.380 --> 00:50:04.880 Roger Scott: you would simultaneously be able to increase your upside potential, decrease your risk to the downside. 294 00:50:05.220 --> 00:50:23.920 Roger Scott: and Matt and I my assistant. He's in the lab busy. I keep him very busy in the lab working there. We've been testing out some strategies, and we've unlocked something that'll literally show you how to buy exactly the option you want for half the price. No tricks, no monkey business none of that banana in the tail pipe stuff, either. 295 00:50:24.230 --> 00:50:33.410 Roger Scott: We just recently closed out a trade, a 35% gain on Fedex, and it almost became a free trade for the last few days. We had it. It was it was doing so. Well. 296 00:50:34.260 --> 00:50:42.720 Roger Scott: it i'm going to teach you literally how to how to have your cake and eat it too. $1,000 into 1,350 in just a few days. 297 00:50:42.750 --> 00:50:48.250 Roger Scott: while cutting our risk in half more than half actually, by about 60% 298 00:50:48.400 --> 00:50:53.170 Roger Scott: a on that trade. Now, i'm planning on doing this on another stock next week. 299 00:50:53.320 --> 00:50:57.410 Roger Scott: Actually, I want to invite you to join me on a master class. 300 00:50:57.440 --> 00:51:04.000 Roger Scott: and I want to teach you all about this calendar phenomena that I've been working on. It's called discount options unlocked. 301 00:51:04.100 --> 00:51:06.770 Roger Scott: Who wouldn't love that? Here's what you can expect 302 00:51:07.020 --> 00:51:14.740 Roger Scott: on we're gonna do it in 2 sessions, Celeste, you're invited. I hope you're gonna make it bring your note. It'll be recorded. 303 00:51:14.880 --> 00:51:19.410 Roger Scott: Anybody who's not there. It'll be 3 to 4 h. Total in 2 sessions. 304 00:51:19.660 --> 00:51:30.080 Roger Scott: What this discount, calendar option is the upside of using it. How to select the discount, calendar option best way to initiate it and liquidate the trade. 305 00:51:30.290 --> 00:51:39.340 Roger Scott: how to defend against risk factors. And there's some good ones there. Some land mines will will uncover how to time your option for the best bank for the book. 306 00:51:39.580 --> 00:51:45.010 Roger Scott: how to gauge ripe high probability opportunities, and how to avoid other ones. 307 00:51:45.270 --> 00:51:53.490 Roger Scott: How do you seasonality to time these trades? How about that? Yeah. How to how to use relative strength and technicals 308 00:51:54.400 --> 00:51:59.570 Roger Scott: to time this trade, and and looking for opportunities in real time. 309 00:51:59.750 --> 00:52:09.380 Roger Scott: 3 to 4 h of training and value. Huh! 3 to 4 h. Who would not love that plus i'll be using the same trick on a brand new trade alert 310 00:52:09.770 --> 00:52:14.030 Roger Scott: that i'm going to share with you. So not only are you going to get the education you're going to get a trade alert. 311 00:52:14.280 --> 00:52:19.320 Roger Scott: And and the last time we did this trick we had a 35% game like that. 312 00:52:19.800 --> 00:52:26.160 Roger Scott: all in all. I've literally sold training sessions like this for more than 2,000. I've sold training sessions like this for $10,000. 313 00:52:26.170 --> 00:52:48.540 Roger Scott: Today it is not going to run you anything like that. We're on the verge of a complete trading breakthrough, where you can have your cake and eat it too. and instead of giving you one trade, we're going to figure out 2 trades on the second class on Thursday, and we're going to launch those trades. They're going to be bonus trades. But i'm going to give you guys my full seasonality traits. Not just that 314 00:52:48.680 --> 00:53:02.850 Roger Scott: special announcement. I've created 13 modules, 13 modules of education that I've never, ever ever published anywhere. If you want to learn about options, implied volatility, all the stuff that we've talked about today. 315 00:53:02.850 --> 00:53:10.830 Roger Scott: It's all in there. It's worth a lot more than the price that you're going to be getting for this options unlocked at all, so it's it's a great deal. 316 00:53:11.130 --> 00:53:13.000 Roger Scott: I believe you'll be 317 00:53:13.280 --> 00:53:28.110 Roger Scott: when I say blown away, I mean, blow it out of the water by this. Okay, and and just to show you i'm a good guy. I'm going to give you a full money back guarantee All right. Full money back, guarantee no questions asked, no monkey business. If, after 2 days you're not happy 318 00:53:28.310 --> 00:53:38.020 Roger Scott: Call my team get a refund. No monkey business. Is it gonna cost you $2,000? Of course not. I'm not going to insult you here? Not 997 319 00:53:38.020 --> 00:54:00.150 Celeste Lindman: 200. Can you imagine that, Celeste, for 3 to 4 h of my time? $297? I honestly can't believe i'm doing this. I can't believe you're doing it, either, Roger. I got to interrupt you, and I just got to say, Well, I got to tell everybody. First of all, whenever Roger speaks I listen. I remember he just. He goes overboard on content, and he is the master of master of teachers. 320 00:54:00.150 --> 00:54:28.010 Celeste Lindman: I've learned so much from him over to the years. I cannot wait to see this new class that he you have Roger on on the options because you've got that seasonality. You've got all this different type of entry, and, as you said, you've been doing this for so long. I cannot wait to see what you've unlocked for us now. So it's going to be a great class, and all those recordings, and that give me a break, all of it. Now, don't delay. I don't want to have too many people because I want to be hands on, otherwise we'll be there for 2 day for 20 days. 321 00:54:28.010 --> 00:54:45.020 Roger Scott: It's a limited time offer. We're starting. We're going to log this up and finalize it next week. It's happening on Wednesday and Thursday at 10 am. Don't miss out live classes. Now you had fun with me for 20 min today. Imagine what we'll be doing for 3 to 4 h together. I know tons of people are involved already. 322 00:54:45.090 --> 00:55:08.540 Roger Scott: your satisfaction guaranteed. Let me show you a easy way to get options at a discount. Anytime you buy an option you'll save 40, 50, 60, 70, if that's not worth $297 to you. I don't know what is once you sign up don't close. I'm also gonna give you an offer to get about $1,800 off my best educational deal intro to algo 323 00:55:08.540 --> 00:55:22.030 Roger Scott: frontrunner, portfolio, plunge, protection, All of that's in there. It's only available for people who take me up on my discount options. Unlocked training right now. Don't miss out the discount options, the options, master class, the bonuses 324 00:55:22.030 --> 00:55:28.670 Roger Scott: you don't want to miss out on this. Do it right now, and i'm telling you it is going to be fun. Fun, fun. 325 00:55:28.670 --> 00:55:58.670 Celeste Lindman: It's just good. Sorry, Celeste, go ahead. Good! No, I just can say, man, your everybody's mind is just going to be like just going on fire with all the education that they're going to get all the knowledge that they're going to be able to apply. And that's the key. I know, Roger, because you have. You said you're going to show trades how to like. Actually get into these positions. And you've got some trades lined up for people, some of your high probability setups. I mean, it's going to be. This is what you need. Everybody going into this summer? You need to understand how to unlock this potential and be really 326 00:55:58.670 --> 00:56:14.130 Roger Scott: because there are a lot of sneaky things out there in the markets. It's incredible, Roger. I love it 327 00:56:14.130 --> 00:56:21.280 Roger Scott: that so you're going to leave away, not just with the class, but you're going to leave away with 2 traits. It's happening at 10 am. 328 00:56:21.280 --> 00:56:51.260 Roger Scott: Next Wednesday, and next Thursday. It'll be recorded, Stephanie, it'll be recorded so you can watch it till the cows come home. You'll get the recordings in the members area. You'll never lose it, and you can watch it forever and ever. I'm going to show you some cool tools. I'm gonna show you some cool tricks, and i'm literally gonna talk for 3 to 4 h. I'm gonna split it in 2 days, and if anybody knows me, they know I always over deliver. So it's gonna be it's gonna be a 10 am. Eastern time. Both days cannot wait to see you there. Thank you, Celeste, for inviting me to ask the pro. 329 00:56:51.260 --> 00:57:00.060 Roger Scott: I love this class and folks. If whenever we have a class. We always end on a good note, and i'm telling you, and i'm inviting you for next Week's session. It's going to be a great one. 330 00:57:00.410 --> 00:57:23.180 Celeste Lindman: Yeah. Oh, it's gonna be incredible! I remember to even just last week on ask the pros. You know. Garrett was talking about how how you really have uncovered all these changes that are in the market, and he's like, Yes, this is here, and this is permanent, and to be able to hear Roger now talk about these options, and how he's looking at them now with all of these years of experience, and with what everything that he knows about, out goes. I mean this. 331 00:57:23.180 --> 00:57:53.160 Celeste Lindman: you need to add another 0, Roger. I'm telling you i'm gonna like call whoever your publisher is. Say, you need to add another 0 to this. It's that good. And just as Roger was saying, hey, it's not like You're going to lose this. You you're gonna get in at this price. This information is going to be yours forever. You're going to be able to access that members area. Get that information. Listen to it whenever you want to listen to it multiple times and start applying it. He's going to show you how to apply it's got to high probability trade setups. He's going to show you. So it's just like you get the opportunity 332 00:57:53.160 --> 00:58:22.320 Roger Scott: to have Roger hold your hand through some really crazy times in the market. I will not miss it. It's going to be great, Roger. I can hardly wait to be there. Thanks for sharing all this thanks for being with us my pleasure. And, as Ken just said, the strategy will will be able to be. You can apply this to bonds, gold etfs, futures, cryptos, commodities. You can apply it to any asset you want that has options. Obviously, so. It's very flexible, and it's fun. It's not complicated and I promise it's worth your time, and it's definitely worth 200 333 00:58:22.320 --> 00:58:37.830 Jeffry Turnmire: $97 don't miss out. Sign up now, and have a great weekend, everyone. 334 00:58:37.840 --> 00:58:53.430 Jeffry Turnmire: so you know it's it's a powerful strategy, You know. It's powerful tool. You should really learn how to use all the different pieces of options and understand all the things he's talking about there. The theta the implied volatility, you know 13 modules worth it's it's key. 335 00:58:53.610 --> 00:58:59.580 Jeffry Turnmire: The really turbocharging gains in the market is to learn options. That's right. I couldn't agree with you more. 336 00:58:59.790 --> 00:59:23.790 Scott Welsh: and I think it's gonna be a special prize for anyone who gets the banana and the tailpipe reference. Or we'd be giving out because I don't know if if they deserve something special for that, because I love that reference. It's so funny. Yeah. Oh, thank you for posting it at him. I was just about to post them. Yeah, maybe I don't know. Maybe we'll make t-shirts or something funny like that, You know I should I should actually do that I already have a 337 00:59:23.790 --> 00:59:27.470 Roger Scott: no monkey business t-shirt I should get a banana in the tail pipe business. 338 00:59:27.500 --> 00:59:51.060 Celeste Lindman: Bye, guys have a great weekend All right. Thanks. Everyone for being here with us. We're going to go over to ask the pros premium here. It's going to start right in 5 min. Jack Carter is with me. You're going to love it. He's got an incredible amount of information. You know we love love love. When when when Jack teaches so we'll be right over there, and recordings are at atp premium or atp 339 00:59:51.060 --> 00:59:53.080 Celeste Lindman: atp. traders.com.