FOMO or FOGI? No, They’re Not Tickers— June 16, 2023

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Celeste Lindman: Going on.

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Celeste Lindman: Hey, Jack, welcome! I'm good to see you here, too.

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Celeste Lindman: and you are muted right now. So there we go.

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Celeste Lindman: But anyway, it is great to have everybody here. We're gonna get started here on. Ask the pros. It is 120'clock. Let's do it. We have had a lot of things going on in the market. This thing is relentless. I mean, we've had news. We've had the Fomc. We've had

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Celeste Lindman: Cpi. Everything in in the market just keeps going up. So we gotta find out what is going on, because there is a lot of risk in the market. It's feeling like pretty much, you know, over bought up there, and we come back here week after week on. Ask the pro, because we want to help you get on the right side of the market show you the the tools that we're using. The announce that we use to do just that, and I'm so excited that we have Jack Carter with us. Welcome, Jack.

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Jack Carter: Thank you.

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Celeste Lindman: Good to see you here, Roger, and we've got Scott Welsh with us, too, so let's get started to jump right in. So with all these things going on in the markets, guys, you know, what? What do you think you know in your opinion, is the best way to approach this mid-june market right now.

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Celeste Lindman: and any comments that you have on any news events, you know. Go ahead and go with that to Roger. Let's start with you first.

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Roger Scott: Well, I think this market has been extremely extremely confusing to most people, because because we're getting a lot of cont on on one hand, you know, from one part of

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Roger Scott: of the crowd you've got, we got a recession coming. We got a recession coming. We're in a really bad shape, and on the other part, you've got a raging bull market in these AI tech stocks. So people are are

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Roger Scott: are very confused right now. You know some people are talking, Bull. We're we're in a new bull market. The truth is, we're not. and and I'll once I do my segment, and I'll show you the key levels.

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Roger Scott: it's very, very hard for a bull market to be contained with, with a handful of stocks, so much, much, much more likely than not this is going to be a this is just a reversion of A, of A, of A, of a Trent counter trend. We've seen counter trends give us more than 20% rallies before it's happened before. It's not the first time. And remember, the markets are very volatile right now, which leads to that volatility.

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Roger Scott: But when you look at, when you when you look so, when you look at these numbers and I was just, I was just looking at this earlier a minute ago.

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Roger Scott: I mean, just think about this for a minute.

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Roger Scott: And video is up 200 for the year. Apple is up. 50%. Microsoft is up 45. Alphabet is up. 40. Amazon is up 48 Meta is up 125, and Tesla is up 135. That's that sounds to me like like like a a shake out ready to happen.

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Roger Scott: There's no there's there's absolutely I mean, these companies just laid off employees, and they don't know if they're going to be able to meet meet revenue for the next 3 quarters. But but they're up 5,100. That's that. That's that's nonsense. So I think I think sooner than later, the markets going to come back to Earth. And that's when people are going to get a reality check. And I think right now.

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Roger Scott: because the markets have very short, very small, short-term memories, and people go from bear to bull like that which is great. But this is not a time to be a hero, and the time to start putting your money into stocks, and I mean heavy duty money into stocks and start thinking that things are going to turn around because we're just nowhere near there. This inflation is sticky, as I will talk about later in my analysis. Oh, great, yeah, I cannot wait to get to that part in your analysis. There, Roger, because you're

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Celeste Lindman: right like it's There might be a lot of people jumping in kind of at a top, and we'll find out some more on those levels and how to trade those accordingly. So, Jack, let's talk to you. What are your thoughts on the best way to approach the markets right now, or any of the news events. What's on your mind?

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Jack Carter: I coined a new term the other day.

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Jack Carter: So everybody knows what the this is. This is the situation the market has we got the guys that have the fear of missing out the Fomo? And now we got the foggy where you got the fear of getting in.

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Jack Carter: and it's kind of like at the opposite of a battle of bulls and bears. It's like, you know, who wants to go first. And it's just it's so. Look at how the markets barely moving like it's just like like, you know, when you're looking at the top it it it's like the Gulf of Mexico. You go out there every day. Sometimes you look at the top. Nothing's happening. You look underneath 10 feet. There's a lot going on down there.

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Jack Carter: and I'll show you. There's there's options that are trading like on video like a a A, a $5 strike price call has has

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Jack Carter: as open interest on it. I mean, I'll show you some of this stuff and just blow your mind. But yeah, that's what I'm thinking. We're we've got a battle of the foamy Fomo versus the foggy. I like that, Jack, you know. I'll tell you. The thing is, too is like I love. I love to listen to people talking about the market. Not that I'm eavesdropping, but I was in Miami, and you know the pool is packed, and there's a there's a lady

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Jack Carter: on. They're talking about AI stocks with her sister, or something like that. And then that's when you know, right when it's trickled down to 60 year old lady is talking to the about AI.

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Roger Scott: Oh, man, that's when you know Jack, that's when you do.

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Roger Scott: He? He! What he just said

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Roger Scott: is that something you can experience. Trader will tell you that that I remember it. That works better than any indicator that's been invented, that will be invented, and that has ever been invented the pool side chat. That's

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Jack Carter: that's that that was telling me. You know, I I stood up. I wanted to go upstairs and sell all my in video, because typically that's the that's that's the indicator, you know. But

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Jack Carter: we'll see, it's really, it's really crazy. It is just what's happening in the options market. And what's happening in in the market is it's very narrow, you know. It's not broad at all. It's narrow. So

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Jack Carter: a last last little thing. I'll leave you with his buckle up, Buttercup, because I have some serious volatility coming up.

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Celeste Lindman: Fear of getting it. That's hilarious. Yeah, it is weird. It is weird, but it is weird. But you know what I bet you guys feel very prepared for it, you know, and very strategized, ready to jump on whatever the opportunity is, up or down, and you are not at all afraid to get in and put your money where your mouth is. So

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Celeste Lindman: I appreciate that about all you, Scott. Let's hear from you. What are your thoughts about? You know all this humble jumble going on here in the middle of June.

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Scott Welsh: A lot going on. couple of things you should know, though, about me is that number one. I'm a rules based trader. either an Al go, trader, or if I'm discretionary, I follow rules. I follow rules or people die like I said a few good men.

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Scott Welsh: So keep that in mind. but in my heart and in my soul I can I I thought the Fed meeting was the day that everything was going down. You know I'm long. I don't have a single short position, and I'm up big in a couple of positions that I just think are ridiculous. I mean, I'm just. I'm I'm sitting on nice profits, and

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Scott Welsh: every day I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop, or even the first you to drop. But I thought the Fed meeting was, gonna be it? You know, I thought of they're gonna come out and they're gonna say something hawkish and root. There it goes. And they were kind of hawkish, and nothing happened. So honestly, I'm just like you said to us, I'm prepared. I'm fully ready for all of this to end today or tomorrow. But I'm following my rule still, and I'm gonna follow it as long as it wants to say, silly, I'm gonna to you. I'm gonna be there

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Celeste Lindman: exactly silly. It's good. We can make money on silly cause. That's the point. I mean, there are. There's so many different things going on. I mean, if we actually look at everything, I mean, why would any of us be long if we read headlines we look at under things that under the economy certain things. But but hey! In in a bull market in a bear market, you know, you make, you know, 200% on Nvidia. Well, great congratulations, because that's a great right? But yeah, do be prepared. Let's talk about that, because it is

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Celeste Lindman: the summertime. There are a lot of things going on underneath below the surface, like Jack was alluding to both opportunities to the upside and opportunities to the downside. So glad that you are here for such a time as this. So let's just jump right in and let's get started, Jack. Let's find out a little bit more about what his underneath. What are you? What are. What trends are you looking at?

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Jack Carter: Here we go

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Jack Carter: my breakfast cigar. I haven't even started on this thing yet. So

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Jack Carter: first.

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Jack Carter: this is the options on Nvidia.

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Jack Carter: So this is today. This is going on right now. And are you sharing?

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Jack Carter: I was I. I'm sharing it in my own mind. That doesn't count. Okay, okay.

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Jack Carter: all right.

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Jack Carter: let's see.

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Jack Carter: how's this?

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Celeste Lindman: How we're talking.

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Jack Carter: Nvidia. So

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Jack Carter: we got the stock. Here is 435. It's up 8. Now my trade in this Nvidia this week is that I sold the 375 strike price put.

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Jack Carter: and I bought the 3, 72, 50 as a little hedge, and I made my net credit. There, now, I don't think I'm gonna have the stock put to me at 3 75,

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Jack Carter: you know it's just been on a tear, and that's all fine and well. But it's this stuff that I just. It blows my mind. This is a $5 strike price on Nvidia. I got a little bit of open interest. But these, these trades, these hope, happen in today. What what would be is this guy on the cell side or the by side. I don't. It's just blows my mind. Look how far out of the money this is, and there's still action in here.

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Jack Carter: and you know, I'd love to have even Tony saliva. I don't even think he can explain it. But this volume, this far out of the money.

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Jack Carter: and then you get to like right at the money. And then look at how this is. The volume is even larger than the open interest. Are you looking at? What's your calls, Jack? First I'm looking at calls. I'm gonna scroll down and look at puts. But right here at the 4 30 level. We've got 35,000 at 4 35, 55,000,

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Jack Carter: 4, 40, 60,000 contracts

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Jack Carter: they've traded there. So now this is where we're talking about is the tail wagon. The dog is the options moving the stock right now, Roger, or is is the stock still moving options from the way I'm seeing it?

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Jack Carter: This is pushing up the price of the stock.

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Jack Carter: The other tail is wagging the dog here, and we'll roll down to puts. And today's quadruple witching, too. Yeah, you got everything. Now, it's open interest. I don't know when this happened. But who's buying or selling a $5 put

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Jack Carter: right price put on in video, you're gonna have it. No one's gonna put it to you at 5, and it's not going to go up in value. It just is so bizarre. It's 4,000 contracts here at 30 bucks, a $30 strike price put on in video and you get back here to where you're

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Jack Carter: you're closer to at the money. And

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Jack Carter: it's just it's just crazy. It is 46,000

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Jack Carter: trading like mostly today. So

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Jack Carter: Fridays in general have been crazy, crazy crazy days for tech stocks and options on tech stocks, and I've never seen call winners win. But they're winning on Friday, on on the 0 dte options that are going to expire today. You know that that's where the actions add on that. But I'm still not a buyer. I'm still a seller, and that for me is still working.

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Jack Carter: But this is just crazy. This is what's going on underneath the surface like you look at. What is the dial up? What is Nasdaq. What is S. A. P. 500. What is that? Up or down? Hardly anything today? But this is unbelievable to me.

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Jack Carter: and when you say you're still a seller. Are you talking about selling option premium? Yeah, I'm so I'm selling option premium all day long. you know the the the good old fashioned covered call has been just one of the biggest money makers ever so like. The other day when I was on we were talking about cocoa. Remember that stock. Let's take a look at this cocoa. Was it like 20,

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Jack Carter: 5, or something? So this is a little example. So I bought. I bought some cocoa at 26, and I sold the 30

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Jack Carter: strike price call. That's gonna expire here later this month. But

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Jack Carter: if I get called out at 30, I'll take that, I'll take the 3 bucks, plus the premium I receive for selling the call, and if I don't get called out this thing it's it's just been in a really great trend, this one in elf as we were talking about before. Elf, right? So that's what I got going on.

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Celeste Lindman: That's excellent and selling. I'm going to do a special thing tomorrow. on. If anybody wants to show up a little special class on how to rake in some cash. You love it. Right? Yeah, tell us a little bit more about that. Yeah. So so you're going to be talking more about how people can do this selling of the premium of the and and calls and bullish and bearish. Yeah. So I've been doing it for over. I don't know how many years now with Google.

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Jack Carter: And one of the things that's amazing about that is back back. Then you had to have a quarter 1 million dollars in Google because you needed a hundred shares, you know, just to do one contract with it, but now that it's split and the stock is behaving with a little bit of volatility. This is like a dream come true to start with.

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Jack Carter: And I'm also gonna give away 3, maybe 4 other stocks that they can do this on, so I can't wait to do it. It's gonna be a lot of fun. Amazon's also been behaving a lot better since that's a lot better. Yeah, a lot better. Just wake up, man. The thing was like a just a sleep, and I can't stand that. I want them all bouncing all over the place, you know.

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Jack Carter: That's what I like it.

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Celeste Lindman: Perfect opportunity to get in with Jack. Then tomorrow Adam has posted that link there you can register, for it's 10'clock pm. Eastern time tomorrow. Perfect. You know, we've got the 3 day weekend, so you'll want to be filling your brain with some really powerful content. So you can be prepared to trade this market. I mean, we we just got. We just got the best pool side stock market advice of the year right here.

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Celeste Lindman: That's right. It is that is really good. So I think this is very timely, Jack. Thanks for sharing it with everybody. It'll be very valuable for all of you to make sure that you attend that with Jack there tomorrow. So any other ideas any other tips that you have Jack for people as they approach. I mean, because it's

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Jack Carter: yeah. Use a market driven approach. You know, I always like to look at what is, what is. I just show you here, like, I, I use trend point software. But you can use anything

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Jack Carter: to just get an idea of what? What?

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Jack Carter: what the trend is. So I like to look at a six-month trend on the S. And P. 500. Yeah. So say, Jack, when you say a market-driven approach. What exactly do you mean by that?

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Jack Carter: We? We always want to plan our trade in the same direction as the broad market, so that the the the broad market is doing all the heavy lifting it too many times, I see. S. People have a strategy, and it's like they're trying to jam a square peg and a round hole. They're not taken into consideration what the broad market is doing. They're just trying to jam their strategy in.

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Jack Carter: and that doesn't work. What does work is when you plan your strategy in the same direction as the broad market. So, for example, if the broad market is bullish I like. I like a bull put spread. If if the broad market is bearish, I want to find a stock that I can pull off a a bare call spread. So I always want to use the broad market as like

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Jack Carter: the the engine that drives the train. And I think that really helps people increase their accuracy, and with their planning so like for next week S. And P. Is looking bullish. Then you look at Dia.

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Jack Carter: That's not

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Jack Carter: great, but it's not terrible, you know. I'm looking at all that great look out below. Maybe they're gonna throw a piano out of a 20 story window right now. Oh, yeah, and then but the Qq.

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Jack Carter: For years it it was Lag and the other 2. Now, now it's clearly clearly beating them, and that's you have your best market conditions, I believe, when the queue queue is leading all 3 major indexes. Because look at this, it's beautiful. also, again, looks like it's ripe for a little pull back. But

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Jack Carter: there's a lot of money made here recently.

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Jack Carter: Yeah, yeah, good. And then trade trade with those trends. What's it. So that's the thing market-driven. Approach that way. You can plan your initial trade so like if the broad market was bullish, you'd be more of a of a buyer than you would be selling short, you know. Kind of thing for you, Jack. What kind of timeframe when you say like Bullish like, if the broad markets are bullish. What kind of timeframe are you looking at when you say Bullish? I look at a 6 month chart all the time. I to me. That's the best one

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Celeste Lindman: great, perfect, all right, very concise. Yeah. So make sure that you do. You get get hooked up there with Jack. Get Linkedin for his event. That's gonna be tomorrow at one pm, and he's gonna cover a lot of detail. I was. I was listening in on some of the education and trade ideas that Jack has. Probably they are phenomenal, and he just gets he gets the best feedback from his students, as far as like, you know, being

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Jack Carter: being able to really understand what he's what he's talking about there. So I highly encourage you to go. Be part of that at one Pm. Tomorrow. So it's gonna be a lot of fun. I'm gonna show you how to where where the money resides.

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Celeste Lindman: We trade to make money. That's bottom line. There's no other reason so excited to to hear more about that, Jack. So, anyway. Well, let's keep moving the to Scott. Let's let's find out a little bit more from you. What are you seeing that is trending? How are you finding these trends? How are you looking at it? How are you trading it? How are you preparing? Oh, so much to cover? Let me let me share my screen.

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Celeste Lindman: yes, I'll stop others, and there will be a replay. Yeah.

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Scott Welsh: Okay. Slide show in the beginning

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Scott Welsh: should be good. How? How does that look

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Scott Welsh: beautiful? It's awesome. Nice green background. Well, keep in mind, it's color bloody. Yeah, even mind that the way The other people look at it. The way that Jack looks at it, the way that Roger looks at it. I love those ways. There's not one way to trade, believe me, anyone. It tells you there's only one way. is probably pulling your leg. There are a lot of different ways. There are people who read the tape where people who look at market internals. I love all of them.

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Scott Welsh: What I'm gonna talk about today is kind of the opposite of all that. This is very slow, very deliberate. It's not. If the market goes down, then you just to stand aside and you wait. It's a very, very patient

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Scott Welsh: way to look at the market, and if that's not for you, then don't do it. But there's some very interesting perspectives when you keep moving out longer timeframes, longer timeframe. So.

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Scott Welsh: anyway, keep that in mind that this is a very slow moving. You'll have days or weeks to act on these ideas. and everything is based on. If people have seen me before. Is this Stan Weinstein stage analysis. And what I'm looking forward to answer your question is 2 things

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Scott Welsh: again, very slow moving. This is a weekly little graphic. This is the 30 week moving average. Everything's moving pretty slow. I'm looking for stuff over here in stage one

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Scott Welsh: getting ready to break out. Maybe it's fallen, or maybe it's a brand new stock, which I'm going to show in a second.

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Scott Welsh: but it hasn't really done anything. It's gone down or it's gone sideways. And then all of a sudden it explodes above the moving average. Very, very interested in that. That's where I go to find stuff.

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Scott Welsh: But I also like to see this happen, save I don't know. After a bear market, right? You see a lot of stuff like this. I love this now.

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Scott Welsh: trading the way I'm talking about you may not have a trade tomorrow, but you might have a trade in a couple of weeks, and you might have something that moves quite a bit. So keep that in mind. This is either a go or no go. I'm not worried about shorts. When you talk about trading this way. I'm worried about getting in long and trying to get big wins over a pretty significant period of time. Now

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Scott Welsh: I took that, as you know, and turned into a monthly chart. Right? So this is now that same graphic in real world with Apple. It's an older example back in the.com. But you can see it applies right.

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Scott Welsh: It goes up, it goes down, and then it breaks above the average again.

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Scott Welsh: So this happens in the real world, which is why I like to look at it like this. And here's Tesla, right it goes. And then we're somewhere here. I'm going to give you the updated Tesla. But I'm just showing you this pattern plays out over and over and over again. But again it's super patient on that monthly Scott.

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Scott Welsh: 12 months

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Scott Welsh: simple moving average.

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Scott Welsh: Now, as I said, I'm an I'm a real follower. I'm an Al go, trader, so I get in on 2 consecutive closes above the 12, so it has one close. It could be if you want to be discretionary trader, but this robotic way to do it is to consecutive closes above.

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Scott Welsh: and then I get out when it closes below the 12, so get in on 2 breaks above the 12 and get out. Are there better ways? Sure. But I'm just showing you so simple, so boring right? And if you did that on a fast moving stock, as I showed this last time, 10,000 worth of $10,000 of stock would turn into 170,000 if you did this on Tesla. That's all. Play money, and it's just for education and entertainment. But just to show you. If you follow the rules. Sometimes you can make big numbers.

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Scott Welsh: and to validate before I give you some recent examples. Here's the Spx doing that same thing on the monthly, and this is updated through June thirtieth.

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Scott Welsh: which is not, hasn't happened yet, but it's the month of June thirtieth, and you can see that this gradually goes up over time. So, looking at it this way makes me feel comfortable again. It's calm. It's not frenetic, but it gives me that it gives me the confidence that well, long term ideas can work out in the long term. So

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Scott Welsh: Now, you asked me specifically what I'm looking at right now, I already said, I'm bearish, and I totally am, and if the market turns around like I think it's going to, then we'll be talking of in a few weeks from now about setups. We won't get them right away.

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Scott Welsh: but that's fine with me. However, if for some reason this thing keeps going up. I am super interested right now in ipos or newer stocks that have been are brand new in the last 2 years.

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Scott Welsh: The biggest moving stock in the history. The stock market are usually within 8 years, according to the studies, or even 2 to 5 years. So this is actually what I'm looking at is much more than anything ipos. Now, how do I identify them? Here's what I do. I can. You can just Google, Ipos, recent Ipos and then put them on this long term chart. This is the monthly chart.

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Scott Welsh: and all I want is to watch a trade until the moving hours just shows up on the chart. Well, it'll show up when there's enough data, right? It's not magic. Once I see the line. So I'm waiting several months for this Ipo to do whatever it wants to do. Soon as it shows up. I want 2 consecutive closes, and then there it goes.

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Scott Welsh: trading Ipos this way, and the research I've been doing is crazy easy. And you you catch you catch stuff right? So P. A. Nw. Is a famous Ipo, and that's how I would look at it, Schwab. Back in the day.

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Scott Welsh: It was an Ipo moving average showed up right around here.

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Scott Welsh: I waited for 2 consecutive closes, and then it goes. Then you keep watching them, and you get another one.

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Scott Welsh: Amazon. The magic and moving average showed up after it was new. Back in the nineties it was already above. So you draw a line over the top of a recent high and trade that on an Ipo like you using these long term charts, you can catch these newer stocks. But you're not really caught up in the day to day news.

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Scott Welsh: And here's Tesla

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Scott Welsh: moving average showed up after it's Ipo. Oh, it's a loser, because sometimes things lose, and then you got the 2 closes and you got that move right afterwards. And Tesla's continued to be good, obviously right? So that's what I'm looking at. you want a few recent examples that we got time. I don't want to cut out right. Give us a couple of recent examples, and as you're doing that, let me just remind everybody to that you are on As the first premium, I think, was last. We gave a lot of great detail on those Ipos highly recommend. You are not part of.

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Celeste Lindman: Ask the pros premium that you follow that link. Maybe Adam can drop it in there again, and you sign up. It'll be worth the price of admission for sure all of the content. And with what Jeffrey turn Meyer did today. It's just really, really awesome stuff. So keep going.

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Scott Welsh: If, again, this is all, this is either after the crash that we think is coming, or if it happens that if it happens that and here's Tesla. By the way.

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Scott Welsh: I'm gonna move you over there. We have one close. You know that big move in Tesla. We've had one close above the moving average. Tesla is a month away. Just thought I'd follow up. Here are some ipos quickly. Ap, Lt.

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Scott Welsh: it, just this month was actually an enter. I don't it? Therapeutics? This is a crazy stock, right? So you don't want to put your whole life savings on it. But if you wanted to put a little bit of money.

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Scott Welsh: this is actually it hasn't gone anywhere all month, so this would be a possible trade

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Scott Welsh: talent here is going to be a trade at the end of the month. You see it fall. We're on our second consecutive. Yes, it's moved a lot.

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Scott Welsh: But Ipos move a lot, so PAL and tear is ready to go at the end of the month.

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Scott Welsh: But Roger's favorite. I love here, Roger, talk about Arc. I can listen to him. Talk about Arc all day. This is our second close. I don't want to trade arc. I think it's a bunch of degenerate stocks like Roger says. But guess what it I mean.

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Scott Welsh: It's a trade at the end of the month which is crazy to me d dog, right. This doubled the first after the first Ipo, and we're about ready on our second close.

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Scott Welsh: And here's Frog just found this I was reading. Ibd just mind in my own business investors business daily. This has 400% earnings growth. You know how investors, business daily loves earnings growth. They're projecting 400% earnings growth, which is what they love more than anything. And we're in our second close. This would be a trade in a couple of months. So

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Scott Welsh: so that's a bunch. I mean, there are a few more out there. But I'm just saying, if you just put up, pull up a chart of a brand new stock. Wait for it to close. I mean, sometimes you can catch these big, big winners.

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Celeste Lindman: That's excellent. Yeah, great. I didn't get a chance to catch all those stocks, either. Anthony, I know it'd be nice to have those in the chat, but but it will be on the replay. And there's even more, Anthony, you gotta go if you're not a member of that as opposed premium. Go get there because there's a lot in there, too, that he shares. So let's keep it going because we need to find out more about what's happening in the market. And so do you have anything else there's share. I don't want to cut you off.

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Celeste Lindman: Scott. Oh, I'm all done. That was it was a lot. So Roger. I wanna find out from you more about what you're seeing deep in the belly of this market. And you have some information, too, about like, you know, fund managers, and I'm interested to hear what you have to say about Arc, because you've been saying some things I've been listening to you about, hey? When Arc does some things, you know.

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Celeste Lindman: because a lot of us have a lot of the same feelings. But tell us, you know, from your perspective what's going on with the market. Tell us everything

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Roger Scott: absolutely. Let me just pull this up right here. to make sure I have everything on there, Matt, do me a favor. Would you please give me this stock that I'm printing out right now

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Roger Scott: in the printer, Matt.

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Roger Scott: Sorry about that. I just wanted to get something getting get going. And, by the way, let me share my screen.

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Roger Scott: Funny enough I was. Just

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Roger Scott: thanks. I appreciate that. Funny enough. I was just looking at at at Kathy, at Kathy Woods as we were talking here, and

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Roger Scott: she never! She never fails to disappoint matter of fact. Look at Arc fund right now, still in that range. By the way.

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Roger Scott: I drew this last year, and I told folks the market was going to bottom out here. People were laughing and throwing stones in my in my face, and it's been a year.

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Roger Scott: and This is literally. I drew this a year ago, and I haven't changed anything. Armand says, yes, you did. Yeah. Yeah. And nothing has changed. I. And I do think the this is the degenerate stocks are going to lead us out of this, but we're nowhere near there, and I just go. I'm not going to repeat what Jack said, but basically everything he said about about

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Roger Scott: the the rally being very narrow, being driven by just a handful of stocks. It's all very true you can't trust that at all. So the first of all, I want to show you guys something interesting. And this is the Dow Jones

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Roger Scott: and

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Roger Scott: the Dow. You know, it's called Dow Industrial. For a reason it doesn't. It's not a blue chip sector, it's it's not made up of blue chip stocks, and you could see that right now. The Dow has been pretty choppy for the foreseeable, for the foreseeable past.

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Roger Scott: And this, this thing right here is is giving me a big big red flag because we're showing divergence in the R. Side. The our side to say, can't go higher than 84 is an understatement. It went up to almost 100, and it can't even get to the 80. This is a short term. Rsi. So to me, this is over. Bought. Now.

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Roger Scott: interestingly, I showed this to you guys last week I showed the industrial sector.

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Roger Scott: and I made an interesting comment how the industrial sector looks almost identical to the Dow Jones. It doesn't look all that different. It looks almost like we're looking at the same thing.

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Roger Scott: But one of the things about the industrial sectors that we can look at momentum levels very clearly here and industrial momentum levels right now, want you guys to see this?

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Roger Scott: I mean it. It's like.

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Roger Scott: it's like the we've been at these levels in the last.

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Roger Scott: Let's see here, how many times we've been here. This goes back to this is about this is about 8 years. Okay, in the last 8 years we've been above this line once, twice, 3 times.

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Roger Scott: So anybody who wants to be a buyer of industrial stocks or basic material or other blue chip stocks is not thinking clearly right now. This is not a time to be a hero.

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Roger Scott: other sectors that are just as over bought right now

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Roger Scott: are. And I'm not even talking about tech tech is is just it? It needs to be shot.

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Roger Scott: But other sectors that are as over bought right now are, where is my basic materials? Here it is basic materials.

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Roger Scott: It's also really, really over bought.

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Roger Scott: And in addition to basic materials.

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Roger Scott: look at utilities

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Roger Scott: very, very, very overbot. So the blue chips are becoming just as over bought as the technology stocks. And when you're seeing that, and you're not seeing any follow through from mid caps. That's a big big red flag like a big, big, big, big red flag. So there's a lot of vulnerability right now in sectors that looked pretty good and pretty ripe about a month ago. Now, with that, said I am. I am seeing more upside, potential and consumer staples, which I'm grossly long right now.

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Roger Scott:  looks like there's more upside there. And it looks like there's more upside in healthcare stocks. And those are the 2 sectors that typically stay firm while the rest of the market

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Roger Scott: decent

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Roger Scott: starts coming down.

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Roger Scott: So it actually makes more sense. This can go into up another 1010, 15. It's not over bought yet. So the stock market is getting a little bit hot, a little too hot in the very short term. And I think we're going to see it. Come down now, text, forget about text. I mean, if you look at info tech.

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Roger Scott: look at, look at the 200 day moving average. Look at the 50 day moving average. Look at the 20 day moving average. I mean, this thing is so hot and the 200 day moving average we really have to pay attention to, because that's like a very long term basis. And when you see tech stocks go from here to here

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Roger Scott: in Let's see here, how much time is that?

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Roger Scott: August, you know September from September to right now, that's that's that's just that's not normal. That's very, very, very unhealthy. matter of fact, even if you look at the 50 day, no matter where we look, it's gonna show us the same thing. But

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Roger Scott: the these, these are just not sustainable levels for the long term. They're not realistic. let's see, one times twice, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 times. So once a year

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Roger Scott: in the short term, we go to these levels. So again, not sustainable momentum, not realistic a great time to start buying up options. We are the the shortest we've been in the history of wealth press right now I have. Let's see here

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Roger Scott: 3 out of every position, 3 out of every 4 positions I have are short right now.

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Roger Scott: just to give you some idea of of of what we're looking at. So that's the broad market right now. Now.

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Roger Scott: what does the biggest

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Roger Scott: hedge fund think of the market right now? Now? The most mark, the most money in this country is being held by Black Rock. Okay.

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Roger Scott: Black Rock says this week

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Roger Scott: tight labor markets are making core inflation. Sticky. Black Rock expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates elevated for longer than expected. as inflation remains above the fat target level

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Roger Scott: to wage due to wage pressure and tight labor market. We think tight labor markets are driving wage gains and making core inflation sticky.

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Roger Scott: The world's largest asset manager said. This week. in in particular, us lacks enough workers to fill jobs while Europe workers have left the private sector for public sector.

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Roger Scott: height labor markets, could squeeze corporate profit margins or forest companies to trim workforce to maintain profits. they are looking at more bonds, and they're looking at Gdp to dip into a mild recession.

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Roger Scott: So they're not looking good. So things are just not looking as great now

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Roger Scott: it's all. It's not all bears. There are some some interesting things going on right now, so

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Roger Scott: I don't know if you guys have good memories or not. But about a year and a half, maybe 2 years ago.

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Roger Scott: I started talking about I started talking about a brand of shoes that my wife has been buying like there's no tomorrow.

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Roger Scott: And I told everybody. And I said, unfortunately you can't invest in this shoe company, but you can invest in the their parent company, and the name of the company was Hocus.

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Roger Scott: And I want to read something to you. I want to read something to you.

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Roger Scott: Decker Outdoor, which is the company you guys probably remember I you remember, Celeste? I talked about it a few times more than once about about the Hokus shoes. Yeah. So so let me say, yeah, we're talking about Hokus, and I'll tell you why we're talking about Hokus right now, because because

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Roger Scott: they announced Decker Outdoor, which owns Hoka, which bottom from a very small French company, and I was, I remember, when it happened, and I made a big deal out of it on this show

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Roger Scott: that they launched their most extensive ad campaign because hockey became

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Roger Scott: a billion dollar brand last year. the global brand market for Hoka will spanned own media out of home. C team. Digital paid social media

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Roger Scott: campaign will include a sixty-second film.

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Roger Scott: Actors entertainers. But listen to this focus revenue for fiscal 2,023 increased 58% year over year to 1.4 billion to market. The fourth consecutive year Hoka has delivered revenue growth above 50%

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Roger Scott: who in Google search interest hockey is at an all time high. Right now.

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Roger Scott: So 2 years ago. I told you to keep an eye on this company, and this company is doing really well, and it's it's becoming Decker outdoors. Biggest brand by market cap. So keep your eye on Decker outdoors. With that

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Roger Scott: you remember that I was. I was talking that stock up for a while there.

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Roger Scott: This is seasonality for the next week. Now, Monday is a holiday, and usually when we have a holiday on Monday, it becomes a very distorted

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Roger Scott: I call it fragmented week. And I'm expecting a fragmented week. And typically when you have a fragmented week, it doesn't tend to to to favor the bulls.

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Roger Scott: Now, the Nasdaq is really nasty next week, right here, seasonally. Now, interestingly, communications is up. Tech is totally out of whack.

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Roger Scott: But even look, basic materials, industrial utilities energies. The financials look like they're okay. But honestly, this is a nasty market next week, and because it's a nasty market next week

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Roger Scott: Uncle Roger is going to give you guys.

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Roger Scott: hey? Question for you Roger back on your seasonality. There, it kind of shows It looks kind of like a gap down if I'm reading that correctly. no, it doesn't really. It doesn't really gap. It doesn't really gap. There's no there's no get get. I mean, it doesn't really show gaps. Just shows how the last x amount of years on these days the sectors have performed. But it looks it just looks negative.

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Roger Scott: It looks really, really bad. It doesn't look good. Usually we have this up, this down. It's a little mixed. It's that it's everything is bearish. All the sectors all the indices excel. F. Looks okay at the end of the week. excel. Y looks okay at the end of the week, but this is barely, I mean, this is point 2%.

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Roger Scott: So tomorrow, next week I'm getting a feeling that's going to be very choppy with some downside moves. And on that note

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Roger Scott: I want to give you that

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Roger Scott: some shorts. It look pretty good right. Now.

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Roger Scott: what do you guys think about that?

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Roger Scott: Take this off my screen. Go back here. and here are my shorts. First one is match. These are really crappy stocks, doing really crappy things. By the way.

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Roger Scott: hitting the 200 day moving average about to back off

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Roger Scott: way way overbot. I think it's gonna go down from 40 to 50 all the way to $31 and 50 cents.

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Roger Scott: The next one is W. A. B.

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Roger Scott: The stock is over bought on a longer term basis here, and I think it's gonna come south. It's right now, near the 103 level. I think it's gonna go down to the 92 level.

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Roger Scott: These are all within the next 8 weeks or so. Gpc.

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Roger Scott: Matt, my assistant also does not like this stock. Hey, Peter, how are you, Blair Blair? Not Peter Blair. Here's another one genuine car parts don't think it's going to go much higher, and it's going to go down to about 145, 146.

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Roger Scott: Next one is J. Ks, this is especially a nasty one.

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Roger Scott: I mean this thing. If anybody thinks this thing is going to Skyrocket.

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Roger Scott: let me tell you. I've got it. Other plans for the stock. I think it's gonna go right down. It's over. Bought kind of go down right back down to the $40 level.

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Roger Scott: Next one is a

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Roger Scott: stock has not been doing anything really that great this year the long term trend is nasty. I mean, Jack, would you buy any of these stocks with your money?

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Jack Carter: No, no, I wouldn't do that at all. there's a lot of great great there call spreads in these things. Exactly. So I would sell this right around here. I don't think it's even going to go high enough to fill the gap. I think it's gonna go down all the way to the 113. Most of these stocks have about 10 points or more in them, and last, but not least, pizza.

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Roger Scott: Papa John's pizza is just not Papa John's is just not killing it, and the the way it used to. I think it's overdone. I've been watching the stock for a while. I think it's gonna go down about 6 or $7. I think all of these stocks every stop that I mentioned.

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Roger Scott: Wab, Gpc. Jks, a pizza and match are all going to test the recent swing lows over the next couple of months or less, probably a lot less.

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Roger Scott: Now, folks, before we depart for today, I hope somebody posts a link

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Roger Scott: I have a class with with with Chuck Hughes. It's gonna be a very cool class, and it's about how to make money without holding positions. In other words, you're only holding a position for less than a day. You're not day trading, but you're holding a position for less than a day. You're getting into the end of the day. You're getting out the next stand of day. It's like the it's like the show 24. It's gonna be very, very exciting.

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Roger Scott: Can't wait for you guys to check it out. Don't want you guys to miss it. If you haven't seen it yet, go to that link and check it out. And that's all I've got for you guys today, nice, short, and concise. And we'll get you guys enough time to get into the room and check out the one Pm. Session

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Celeste Lindman: what 10 times I mean just 10 time. Heavyweight trading champion, that chuck. He's very frisky, that chuck he's he's great. He's great.

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Celeste Lindman: Well, and what I love about this, too, is that it is. It's an in and out 24 h. But it's not day trading, but you're still getting the same types of

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Celeste Lindman: results and getting into that market, understanding what's going on in the market. And what better time than right now, when we have the ups and the downs, we talked about it all our today. What's going on in the market? So this is perfect, Roger. Thank you. Yeah. And, Celeste, you don't need a large account for this. You don't need to know anything about option. You don't need to know about complex option, strategy strangles, iron con. Forget about all that.

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Roger Scott: It's you just buy an option and you sell it the next day, and you even get a signal when to sell it to. And I mean, it's always 24 h, but you get a signal as well. So

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Roger Scott: chuck just implemented telegram alerts so you could get it anywhere in the you can get it anywhere in the world instantly. Just like that.

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Roger Scott: So can't wait to folks go to wealth, press.com Friday. Isn't that like the best link? And and and we'll see you guys there. And I really really appreciate it. Don't miss out on this class a lot of people. Every time people watch this class. They see something new every time, so it's it'll it'll be very, very interesting.

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Celeste Lindman: I love what you just said to it, you know. Great for for newbies and beginners. It's great for very advanced traders, too, because we all like to just make money, you know, so it's a great opportunity for everybody I love. What she was saying. There, you know, nephews, just getting started is a great way. What better people can you learn from then, Roger? And then chuck when you're new getting started in this so fantastic and easy to follow.

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Celeste Lindman: The link is posted there, and you can go click on it right now they'll get ready because we're gonna tidy things up here, you for us the pros we've got Jack's event tomorrow. That's gonna be powerful a lot of great education. Bring your nephew there, bring everybody there. It's gonna be really really good. We've got Roger starting at 10'clock this a lot of great information we got recordings from. Ask the pros premium. We've got recordings from today.

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Celeste Lindman: We are trying to prepare you for this craziness in the market, and just like Jack said, you know we are not afraid, and I love those terms you coined there, Jack, what what was it the fear of getting in.

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Celeste Lindman: Yeah, all right. The battle of the minds right now of the fears. Fear is that it's all time I

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Celeste Lindman: that's the best indicator I don't want, I'll I'll let you determine what that means for the market you've got. You got movers and Shakers things, you but you. But the fear of getting the fear of getting in is a huge one. you know. Are you afraid to go short? Are you afraid to go long and market? That looks like it can't go any higher.

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Celeste Lindman: Let's cover some of those fears. Cover them with Jack and and Chuck, and and with with Roger. See how they tackle all of that because they are making money. That's why they're here. That's why they've earned this spot on this show. All right. I'm upset. Thanks. Everyone have a great weekend any final.

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Celeste Lindman: I, a big thing. follow me.